Florida is weird. We all know it. But the current FL race for governor is taking that weirdness to a whole new level of high-stakes political theater. With Ron DeSantis hitting his term limit, the keys to the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee are officially up for grabs, and honestly, the scramble to grab them is getting pretty messy.
You’ve probably seen the headlines. It's not just a Republican versus Democrat thing anymore. It's a proxy war, a family drama, and a massive identity crisis for the Sunshine State all rolled into one.
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The Trump Shadow and the Republican Civil War
Let’s be real: the Republican primary is where the actual fireworks are. For a long time, Florida was the "DeSantis State," but since Donald Trump took back the White House in 2024, the power dynamics have shifted in a major way.
Byron Donalds, the Congressman from Naples, jumped in early and snagged the golden ticket—a full-throated endorsement from President Trump.
Recent polling from early January 2026 shows just how much that matters. In a survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, Donalds is basically "blowing away" the field. He’s sitting at 47% among declared candidates. His closest rival? Former House Speaker Paul Renner and investor James Fishback are stuck in the single digits, hovering around 3% to 4%.
But here’s the kicker: when voters are specifically told Trump endorsed Donalds, his lead jumps to a staggering 68%.
It’s not a done deal, though. Jay Collins, the Lieutenant Governor who took office in 2025, has been teasing a run and recently dumped millions into TV ads. The pollsters say his "sugar high" from those ads has already worn off, but in Florida politics, you never count out the person sitting in the number two chair.
And then there's the Casey DeSantis factor. While she hasn't officially jumped in, her name is the only one that makes Donalds’ numbers sweat even a little bit. Without an endorsement mention, she pulls 26% to Donalds' 39%.
The Far-Right Wildcard
James Fishback is the name most people aren't talking about yet, but they will. He’s been attacking Donalds from the right, using some pretty inflammatory language. He’s pushing for a total abortion ban with zero exceptions and wants to end all immigration. It’s a "DeSantis on steroids" platform that could peel off just enough voters to make things interesting if the frontrunners stumble.
Can a Democrat Actually Win This Time?
Democrats haven't won a governor's race in Florida since 1994. That is a long, long dry spell. Kenneth H. "Buddy" MacKay was the last one to hold the office, and that was only for a few weeks after Lawton Chiles passed away.
Basically, the Florida GOP has a "trifecta"—they control the governor's office and both houses of the legislature. Breaking that wall is a tall order.
The Democratic field is looking at two very different paths:
- David Jolly: The former Republican Congressman who turned Independent and is now a Democrat. He’s betting that Floridians are tired of the "culture wars" and want someone who can talk to both sides. He's focusing heavily on property tax reform and the insurance crisis.
- Jerry Demings: The Orange County Mayor and former Sheriff. He’s a powerhouse in Central Florida and would be the state’s first Black governor. He’s leaning into his "law and order" background to try and flip the script on Republican talking points.
Honestly, Jolly is facing some side-eye from his own party. Some Democratic activists are worried about his past Republican stances, especially on abortion. If Demings can consolidate the base in South and Central Florida, the primary could be a real slugfest.
The Issues That Actually Matter (Beyond the Soundbites)
While the candidates are arguing about who loves Trump more or who is "woke," regular Floridians are staring at their bank accounts.
The Insurance Nightmare
Homeowners' insurance in Florida is a disaster. It’s not just "high"—it’s "I might have to sell my house" high. Any candidate who doesn't have a concrete plan for the property insurance market is going to have a hard time in the general election.
Education and Vouchers
David Jolly has made the state's expanded school voucher system a primary target. He wants to redirect that money back into public school teacher salaries. Republicans, meanwhile, are doubling down on "parental rights."
The Property Tax Proposal
Governor DeSantis is currently pushing a plan to eliminate property taxes for homesteaded homeowners. If that makes it onto the ballot in November 2026, it could completely change the turnout dynamics of the race.
Key Dates You Need to Know
If you're planning on voting (and you should), keep these dates on your fridge. Florida is a closed primary state, meaning you have to be registered with a party to vote in their primary.
- June 12, 2026: The final deadline for candidates to file. This is when we'll know for sure if Casey DeSantis or Matt Gaetz are actually in or out.
- July 20, 2026: The last day to register to vote for the primary.
- August 18, 2026: The Primary Election. This is where the Republican and Democratic nominees are chosen.
- November 3, 2026: The General Election. The big show.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Florida is a "Solid Red" state now. While the 2022 election was a blowout (DeSantis won by nearly 20 points), the 2018 race was decided by less than half a percentage point.
Florida isn't red; it's a state that rewards organization and clear messaging. If the Republicans get bogged down in a nasty, expensive primary—which it looks like they will—the door opens a crack for a disciplined Democratic campaign.
The "Trump Effect" is real, but it’s also a double-edged sword. An endorsement helps in August, but it can be a liability in November in places like Miami-Dade or the "I-4 Corridor" where moderate voters decide the outcome.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Cycle
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the FL race for governor, don't just watch the TV ads. Those are designed to make you mad, not inform you.
- Check your registration: Because Florida has closed primaries, many people find out too late they can't vote for the candidate they like. Visit the Florida Division of Elections to verify your status before the July deadline.
- Follow the money: In Florida, "political committees" (PCs) can take unlimited donations. Look at who is funding "Friends of Byron Donalds" or Jerry Demings' "I Believe" campaign. That tells you who they'll actually listen to if they win.
- Look at the insurance plans: Ask every candidate—at every town hall—specifically what they will do about the re-insurance market. If they give you a vague answer about "litigation reform," they don't have a plan.
The race is just getting started, but the 2026 election is already shaping up to be the most expensive and consequential in Florida history. Whether it’s a Trump-backed coronation or a moderate comeback, the results will set the tone for the entire country heading into 2028.