Everyone thinks they know how Florida works. It’s a red state now, right? After Ron DeSantis won by nearly 20 points in 2022, the "Swing State" label was basically tossed into the Everglades. But as we stare down the Florida next governor election in 2026, the ground is shifting in ways that the national talking heads haven't quite caught up to yet.
Look, the 2026 race is a wide-open vacuum. DeSantis is term-limited. He’s out. And while he’s spent his final State of the State address this January 13th touting his "Free State of Florida" legacy, the battle to succeed him is turning into a messy, multi-front war that doesn't look like a simple coronation for the GOP.
The Trump vs. DeSantis Proxy War is Real
Honestly, if you thought the tension between Mar-a-Lago and Tallahassee was overblown, just look at the Republican primary field. It’s a fight for the soul of the Florida GOP. On one side, you've got the Trump-backed heavy hitter. On the other, the DeSantis loyalists.
Byron Donalds, the U.S. Representative from Southwest Florida, is currently the man to beat. He jumped in early and snagged an endorsement from President Donald Trump that carries massive weight with the base. Polling from early January 2026 shows Donalds sitting comfortably with around 37% to 45% of the Republican primary vote. He’s running on a "bigger, better, faster" version of the American dream.
But it’s not a cakewalk. Just this week, on January 12th, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins officially threw his hat into the ring. Collins is a DeSantis guy through and through. He’s a former Green Beret, a state senator, and he was hand-picked by DeSantis to be Lt. Gov. just last year. When he announced, he pointedly said leadership is forged "under pressure, not in soundbites." That’s a clear shot at the more media-savvy Donalds.
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Then you have Paul Renner, the former Speaker of the Florida House. He’s a workhorse who delivered most of DeSantis’s big legislative wins. He’s trying to position himself as the "adult in the room" who actually knows how to run the state government.
Can a Democrat Actually Win?
It’s been a long time. 1994 was the last time a Democrat won the Governor’s mansion. Lawton Chiles was the guy. Since then? Nothing but Republican red.
But the 2026 cycle feels... different. There’s a palpable "voter fatigue" starting to creep in. Property taxes are through the roof. Home insurance is a nightmare that won't end. Democrats are betting that Floridians care more about their "affordability" agenda than culture wars.
The Democratic primary is shaping up to be a two-man race:
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- David Jolly: The former Republican Congressman who turned Democrat. He’s running as a "post-ideological" problem solver. He’s got the name ID, but some progressives are skeptical of his past.
- Jerry Demings: The Orange County Mayor and former Sheriff. He’s got deep roots in Central Florida and is banking on his "servant leadership" vibe to win over moderates and minority voters.
If Demings wins the primary, he’d be looking to become Florida’s first African American governor. He’s been vocal about the state needing a "change" after decades of GOP control.
The Issues That’ll Actually Decide This
The media loves the drama, but the actual voters are worried about their bank accounts.
Property Taxes
DeSantis is spending his final months pushing a massive plan to eliminate property taxes for homesteaded homeowners. It’s a populist move, but the Florida House—led by Speaker Daniel Perez—is skeptical. They’re worried it’ll gut funding for schools and police. If this ends up on the ballot in November 2026, it’ll be a massive turnout driver.
Abortion Access
This is the wild card. Florida’s current six-week ban is a major point of contention. Democratic hopeful David Jolly has been attacked by some in his own party for "shifting views" on the issue, while Republican long-shot James Fishback is calling for a total ban with zero exceptions. For most voters, this is a "kitchen table" issue that could flip moderate suburban areas back to the Democrats.
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Redistricting Fights
This is the "under the radar" story that matters. There’s a huge push to redraw congressional maps again. Advocacy groups like the NAACP and the ACLU are already gearing up for a fight, claiming the GOP is trying to "ram through" partisan districts to wipe out Democratic seats before the election.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Florida is "Safe Republican." While the registration numbers favor the GOP, the internal divisions are deep. The feud between Speaker Daniel Perez and Governor DeSantis has been simmering since early 2025. They’ve fought over the budget, they’ve fought over tax cuts, and they’ve fought over who really speaks for the party.
A divided GOP gives Democrats an opening they haven't had in thirty years. If the Republican primary turns into a scorched-earth battle between the Trump and DeSantis wings, the eventual nominee might be too bruised to win a general election against a moderate like Demings or Jolly.
Actionable Steps for Florida Voters
If you're looking to stay ahead of the curve for the 2026 cycle, don't just watch the national news. The real action is happening in Tallahassee and the local county seats.
- Verify Your Registration: The filing deadline is June 12, 2026. Make sure your address is current, especially with the new voting laws being debated in the legislature right now.
- Track the Primary Date: Mark August 18, 2026, on your calendar. In Florida, the primary is often the "real" election because of how the districts are drawn.
- Follow the Money: Keep an eye on the Florida Division of Elections website. Watch who is funding candidates like Byron Donalds and Jerry Demings. Big real estate and insurance money usually tells you more about a candidate's future policies than their TV ads do.
- Read the Ballot Initiatives: Pay close attention to any proposed amendments regarding property taxes or redistricting. These often require a 60% supermajority to pass and will likely be on the same ballot as the Governor's race.
The Florida next governor election isn't just another political contest. It’s the final chapter of the DeSantis era and the first chapter of whatever comes next. Whether that's a Trump-aligned "MAGA" future or a surprising Democratic comeback remains to be seen.
To stay informed, you should regularly check the official Florida Department of State's candidate tracking system and monitor local reporting from outlets like the Tampa Bay Times or Miami Herald, which often catch the policy shifts that national outlets miss. Knowing the specific platforms of candidates like Paul Renner or David Jolly on insurance reform will give you a much better sense of who will actually impact your daily life than any national poll could.