Florida isn't a swing state anymore. Honestly, if there was any lingering doubt before November, the Florida election results 2024 just buried it. We aren't talking about a narrow "hanging chad" situation from the early 2000s. This was a blowout.
Donald Trump didn't just win; he cleared Kamala Harris by over 13 percentage points. That is roughly 1.4 million more votes. To put that in perspective, in 2020, his margin was just about 3 points. The Republican shift was so aggressive it basically felt like a red tidal wave hitting the Gulf and the Atlantic simultaneously.
The Miami-Dade Shocker
Everyone is staring at the Miami-Dade numbers. They should be. For decades, this was the fortress of Florida Democrats. Hillary Clinton won it by 29 points in 2016. Biden won it by 7 in 2020. In 2024? Trump flipped it. He won the county by about 11 points.
It’s wild to see. We are talking about a county that hasn't backed a Republican for president since 1984. Hispanic voters—specifically Cuban, Venezuelan, and increasingly Puerto Rican communities—moved toward the GOP in numbers that pollsters are still trying to figure out. It wasn't just a "swing"; it was a realignment.
Why the Hispanic Vote Moved
- Economic Anxiety: Exit polls showed that four in ten Florida voters listed the economy as their top concern.
- Cultural Messaging: The GOP's "anti-socialism" rhetoric continues to hit different in South Florida.
- Voter Registration: Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Florida by more than 1 million registered voters. That’s a massive structural advantage you just can’t ignore.
Rick Scott’s Decisive Night
While the top of the ticket was grabbing the headlines, Rick Scott was busy securing his second term in the U.S. Senate. He faced Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman who many thought might keep it close.
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It wasn't close.
Scott won by nearly 13 points. If you remember his 2018 race against Bill Nelson, he won that by a microscopic 0.12%. This time? He cruised. He even won majority-Hispanic Osceola County, which used to be a safe bet for Democrats. It kinda shows that the incumbency and the general "reddening" of the state made him basically untouchable.
The Amendment 3 and 4 Heartbreak (or Victory)
This is where things get really interesting. Florida has this high bar for constitutional amendments—you need 60% to pass. Both Amendment 3 (recreational marijuana) and Amendment 4 (abortion rights) failed.
But here is the kicker: A majority of Floridians actually voted for them.
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Amendment 4, which would have protected abortion access up to viability, got about 57% of the vote. Most states would consider that a landslide. In Florida, it’s a loss. Because it didn't hit 60, the current six-week ban stays in place. Same story for Amendment 3. It got roughly 55.9% "Yes" votes. People clearly wanted it, but the high threshold—and a very aggressive "No" campaign funded by the state government's allies—kept it from becoming law.
The Power of the 60% Threshold
- Amendment 1 (Partisan School Boards): Failed.
- Amendment 3 (Marijuana): Failed (despite 5.9 million "Yes" votes).
- Amendment 4 (Abortion): Failed (despite 6 million "Yes" votes).
- Amendment 2 (Right to Fish and Hunt): Passed easily.
It’s sorta weird to think about. Millions of people walked into a booth, voted "Yes" for weed and abortion rights, and still voted for Trump and Scott by double digits. Florida voters aren't easily put into boxes. They like their Republican leaders, but they also seem to like some traditionally "liberal" policies—just not quite enough of them to hit that 60% mark.
What’s Next for Florida?
The Florida Democratic Party is in a tough spot. They lost almost everything. Even in places like Palm Beach County, which Kamala Harris narrowly held, the margins are shrinking. Republicans now hold a supermajority in both the state House and the state Senate.
This means Governor Ron DeSantis and the legislature have a completely clear runway for the next few years. No "swing state" moderating influence. No fear of a blue wave.
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Actionable Insights for the Future
If you're trying to make sense of the Florida election results 2024, here is what you should actually watch:
- Watch the Courts: With Amendment 4 failing, legal challenges to the six-week ban are the only remaining hurdle for abortion restrictions.
- Voter Registration is King: If Democrats want to be competitive by 2026 or 2028, they have to close that 1-million-voter gap. Currently, they aren't even close.
- Economic Messaging: The GOP won on the "pocketbook" argument. Any future challenger is going to have to prove they can handle Florida's rising insurance costs and housing prices better than the incumbents.
The "Purple Florida" we used to know is gone. It's a deep, vibrant red now, and the 2024 data suggests it’s going to stay that way for a while.
Next Steps for You:
Check your local county's Supervisor of Elections website to see how your specific precinct voted. Many Florida counties provide "heat maps" that show exactly which neighborhoods shifted the most. This can give you a much clearer picture of your local political climate than the statewide exit polls.