Honestly, if you're looking at the radar and seeing those deep reds and purples over the Hill Country, it's easy to think it's just another "Texas weather" moment. But flooding in Texas right now isn't just about some heavy rain. It's becoming a full-blown reckoning with how we handle emergency alerts and where we choose to build our homes.
Water moves fast here. Really fast.
Just this week, on January 14, 2026, we saw a massive dump of new information—hundreds of text messages and internal records—released by the Texas Tribune and the Texas Newsroom. They tell a chilling story about the "COMMAND CHAT" used by officials during the devastating July 4 floods that hit Kerr County. It turns out, while the Guadalupe River was swallowing cabins at Camp Mystic, there was a nearly three-hour gap between the first panicked 911 calls and the first text message sent between emergency leaders.
Thirteen people died in that county alone. Statewide, that single event claimed 119 lives.
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Why the Guadalupe and Llano Rivers are Screaming
You've gotta understand the geography to get why flooding in Texas right now is so terrifying. The Hill Country is basically a giant funnel. When rain hits that limestone, it doesn't soak in. It slides.
Right now, gauges on the Llano River and the Guadalupe are being watched like hawks. According to the latest NOAA data for the Llano River at Llano, when that water hits 38 feet, it’s game over for places like Robinson City Park. We’re talking about homes in the Scotts Acres area being "severely damaged" and mobile homes literally being washed downstream. It’s not a "maybe" situation; it’s a physics situation.
Even today, January 16, 2026, the ripple effects of these disasters are changing laws in other states. Alabama Governor Kay Ivey just announced a $1.2 million flood notification system specifically citing the "Texas tragedy" as the reason.
It’s kind of wild that it took a disaster of this scale to realize that "Code Red" alerts—which only reached about 1,113 users in the Hunt area during the peak of the crisis—just aren't enough when cell towers go dark.
The Misconception of "Minor" Flooding
Most people see a "Minor Flooding" warning and think it’s just a big puddle. That’s a mistake.
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In East Texas, near the Louisiana border, the National Weather Service is currently extending warnings for the Pearl River and the Leaf River. Even "minor" flooding there means secondary roads are inundated and "Honey Island Swamp" becomes a no-go zone.
- The Vehicle Trap: Most flood deaths happen in cars. People think their truck is heavy enough. It’s not.
- The Debris Factor: It’s not just water. It’s "dead deer, vehicles, boats, and lots of debris," as Tech. Sgt. Jason Kester from the Colorado National Guard described his recent deployment to the Texas flood zones.
- The Timeline Gap: By the time you get the alert on your phone, the river might have already peaked five miles upstream.
What’s Happening on the Ground Today
If you’re driving through the Dallas-Fort Worth area or down toward Houston, you're seeing high water in the usual spots. But the real story is in the litigation and the policy changes. The "COMMAND CHAT" records showed that at 6:34 a.m., hours after the first 911 calls, officials were still referring to the situation as "potential issues."
Meanwhile, at Camp Mystic, the river had already surged over 35 feet.
The owner, his son, and dozens of campers were caught in a wave of debris-filled water that nobody—according to Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly—saw coming. But the National Weather Service had issued a Flash Flood Emergency, a rare and dire alert, well before the worst hit. There is a massive disconnect between the data and the boots-on-the-ground response.
How to Actually Stay Safe
Stop relying on a single app. If you live near the San Saba, the Pedernales, or the Colorado River, you need multiple ways to get info.
Check the LCRA Hydromet site. It gives you real-time discharge rates from dams like Mansfield and Buchanan. As of late last night, January 15, no gate operations were expected at Buchanan Dam, which is a rare bit of good news for those downstream in Austin. But that can change in a heartbeat if a cell stalls out over the basin.
Basically, if you see water over the road, turn around. It sounds like a cliché, but with the way Texas rivers are behaving lately, that 6 inches of water could be hiding a washed-out culvert or a 4-foot drop.
Next Steps for You:
Check your local county’s emergency management page and ensure you are signed up for Code Red or Everbridge alerts. Don't just wait for the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) on your phone, as those can be delayed by tower congestion. If you are in a low-lying area near the Guadalupe or Llano rivers, have a "go-bag" ready and know exactly which high-ground route is still accessible when the low-water crossings inevitably go under.