It’s bone-chillingly cold in Nashville today.
Honestly, if you stepped outside this morning, you felt that 21-degree bite immediately. We aren't dealing with a massive deluge at this exact second—January 18, 2026, is actually staying dry—but the conversation around flooding in Nashville Tennessee today is still dominating local groups and emergency planning meetings. Why? Because the ground is absolutely saturated from the heavy hits we took earlier this month, and in Middle Tennessee, "dry" is always a temporary state.
The Cumberland River is currently sitting at about 17.5 feet. For context, flood stage doesn't officially start until 40 feet. So, we are safe, right?
Well, it’s complicated.
Nashville has a "flashy" relationship with water. While the big river looks calm and carries a manageable 7,800 cfs (cubic feet per second) flow past downtown right now, the smaller tributaries like Richland Creek and Mill Creek are the ones that keep residents up at night.
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The Ghost of 2010 and the Reality of 2026
You can't talk about water in this town without someone bringing up the May 2010 flood. It’s the local benchmark for catastrophe. But the way flooding in Nashville Tennessee today works is different than the slow-rise disaster of fifteen years ago.
We’ve paved over a lot of dirt since then.
Every time a new tall-and-skinny condo goes up in the Nations or a massive distribution center lands in Antioch, there is less grass to soak up the rain. Basically, the water has nowhere to go but the street. This creates "urban flooding," where even a standard afternoon thunderstorm can submerge an intersection on Murfreesboro Pike in minutes.
Earlier this January, we saw a Moderate Flood Watch that put everyone on edge. We had rounds of rain that dumped 2 to 3 inches in short bursts. That’s the real threat in 2026—not necessarily a massive river crest, but the flash flooding that traps people in their cars near Foster Avenue or Lester Avenue before the sirens even stop wailing.
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What the Gauges Are Telling Us Right Now
If you look at the USGS monitoring stations at Omohundro or the gauges near the Jefferson Street bridge, the numbers are steady. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is doing their usual dance, managing the dams at Old Hickory and J. Percy Priest to keep the Cumberland within its banks.
- Cumberland River at Nashville: Currently around 17.55 feet.
- Richland Creek (Charlotte Ave): Hovering near 0.73 feet—well below any danger.
- Forecast for next week: We have drizzle and a potential wintry mix coming Wednesday and Saturday.
The cold is actually our friend right now. With temperatures peaking at only 35°F today, we aren't seeing the massive runoff that happens when warm, tropical moisture slams into the Tennessee Valley. But don't get too comfortable. The National Weather Service in Nashville is already watching a system for later in the week that could bring snow or moderate rain.
When the ground is frozen, it acts like concrete. If we get a sudden warm-up followed by heavy rain—a classic Tennessee January move—that water will slide right off the frozen surface and into the low spots.
Why Your Neighborhood Might Flood (Even if the River is Low)
Most people think if they don't live on the river, they’re fine. That’s a dangerous gamble in Davidson County.
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Metro Water Services has been working on the "Centralized Storage" projects and improving storm drains, but the sheer volume of water during a Nashville "clipper" system can overwhelm the pipes. You've got neighborhoods like Joelton with steep terrain where runoff gains speed, and then you've got the flat stretches of Madison where water just sits and pondes.
Check your gutters today. Seriously. While it's dry and clear, clearing out those frozen leaves could be the difference between a dry crawlspace and a $10,000 headache when the rain returns on Wednesday.
Actionable Steps for Nashville Residents
Since we aren't in an active "Flash Flood Emergency" at this moment, use this window of clear weather to prepare.
- Download the Nashville Safe App: This is the quickest way to get Metro Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) alerts. Don't rely on Facebook; it's too slow.
- Know your "Action Stage": For the Cumberland, 30 feet is when things get "interesting" for property owners near the river. We are far from that today, but it’s good to know your number.
- Check the "Know Your Zone" map: If you moved here in the last two years, you might not realize your backyard is a historic drainage path. Metro’s GIS maps will show you exactly where the 100-year floodplains sit.
- Watch the temperature swing: If we jump from 20 degrees to 50 degrees with rain, that’s your cue to move your car to higher ground if you live in Germantown or near Mill Creek.
The story of flooding in Nashville Tennessee today is one of quiet monitoring. We are in a cold, dry gap, but in a city built on a basin, the next "big one" is always just a pressure shift away.
Stay warm, keep an eye on the Wednesday forecast, and remember that "Turn Around, Don't Drown" isn't just a catchy slogan—it’s the only way to survive a Nashville flash flood.