Honestly, if you're looking at a flagstaff weather 30 day forecast and expecting a perfectly straight line of snowy "winter wonderland" vibes, you've probably never actually spent a week at 7,000 feet. Everyone thinks Flagstaff is just this constant deep freeze from December through March. It's not. It’s way more chaotic than that. Right now, as of January 15, 2026, we’re sitting in a weirdly warm pocket that’s making the "30-day outlook" look a lot more like early spring than mid-winter.
Basically, the high-pressure ridge sitting over the West Coast is acting like a giant umbrella, pushing all the good storms north and leaving us with sunny skies and highs near 54°F. That’s wild for January. Usually, we’re shivering in the 40s. But if you’ve lived here long enough, you know this "fake spring" is exactly when the mountain likes to pull a fast one on you.
The 30-Day Reality Check: What’s Actually Coming
The current flagstaff weather 30 day forecast is a tale of two halves. For the next ten days, it’s mostly "bluebird" days. Great for sitting on the deck at Arizona Snowbowl, but kinda stressful if you’re worried about the snowpack.
Here is the breakdown of what the atmosphere is actually doing:
- The Immediate Window: Expect a lot of sun. Tomorrow, January 16, will hit 50°F, and Saturday drops a bit to 45°F with some biting northeast winds around 14 mph. It’s dry. Like, 27% humidity dry. Keep the lip balm handy.
- The Shift (Late January): Around January 22nd and 23rd, the patterns start to wobble. We’re looking at a 20% chance of rain turning into snow overnight. It’s not a "Snowpocalypse" yet, but it’s the first sign that the high pressure is finally giving up.
- February Outlook: The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the NWS are both pointing toward a "winter punch" in early February. While January might end up drier than average, February is historically one of our snowiest months, averaging about 19 inches.
Why the "La Niña Collapse" Matters to Your Trip
We’ve been stuck in a La Niña pattern, which usually means Arizona gets the short end of the stick for moisture. But the experts at the Climate Prediction Center are seeing a 75% chance of a transition to "ENSO-neutral" between now and March.
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What does that mean in plain English? It means the predictable dry pattern is breaking down. When the Pacific flips like this, the jet stream starts wandering. It’s like a garden hose that’s been let go—it could spray anywhere. For Flagstaff, this transition often leads to "closed low" systems. These are those sneaky storms that park themselves over the Four Corners and dump three feet of snow while the rest of the state is just cloudy.
If you are planning a trip for the tail end of this 30-day window, don’t trust a sunny forecast three weeks out. The "neutral" phase is notoriously hard to predict.
Snow Totals and Ski Conditions
Despite the warmth today, the mountain isn’t bare. Arizona Snowbowl is reporting a 34-inch base depth with a season total of 85 inches so far. They’ve got about 77% of their trails open.
- The Morning Crust: With lows hitting 28°F to 32°F, the snow freezes hard at night.
- The Afternoon Slush: By 2:00 PM, when it’s 53°F in town, the mountain starts to feel like mashed potatoes.
- The Wind Factor: Saturday and Sunday (Jan 17-18) will be breezy. Wind speeds up to 25 mph on the ridges can make a 45-degree day feel like 25.
High-Altitude Survival Hacks
Flagstaff isn't Phoenix. It sounds obvious, but the sun at 7,000 feet hits different. The UV index is currently around a 3, which sounds low, but with snow reflection, you'll burn your nose in twenty minutes.
Also, the temperature swings are brutal. We’re looking at a 54°F high today and a 32°F low. That’s a 22-degree drop the second the sun goes behind the peaks. If you’re out at a brewery downtown, bring a heavy coat even if you walked there in a t-shirt. You'll regret it by 6:00 PM otherwise.
Actionable Next Steps for Travelers
- Check the "Area Forecast Discussion": If you want to sound like a local, don't just look at the icons on your phone. Read the National Weather Service "Discussion" for Flagstaff. It’ll tell you if the forecasters are actually confident or if they’re just guessing because of the La Niña flip.
- Prep for Dryness: The humidity is hovering between 15% and 30%. Drink twice as much water as you think you need. Altitude sickness is basically just hyper-dehydration.
- Watch the January 22 Pivot: This is the date to watch. If that moisture from the west actually connects with the cooling temps, the end of your 30-day window could look very different from the start.
The big takeaway? Enjoy the "fake spring" while it lasts this week. Flagstaff is a mountain town, and the mountain always gets its snow eventually. Usually right when you’ve decided to put your shovel away.