If you’re staring at the 14 day forecast Flagstaff AZ right now, you probably see a lot of sun icons. It looks peaceful. Maybe a little too peaceful for mid-January in the ponderosa pines. But here’s the thing about Flagstaff weather—it’s a liar. Well, not a liar, but it’s definitely prone to mood swings.
Right now, we are looking at a stretch of high-pressure dominance. It’s that classic Arizona winter "warm" spell where the sun is blindingly bright, but the air still bites your ears off if you stand in the shade for more than two minutes. The next two weeks are trending towards highs in the high 40s and low 50s, with nights crashing down into the 20s.
It's weird.
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One day you're hiking Fatman’s Loop in a light hoodie, and 48 hours later, a rogue system from the Pacific could dump ten inches of powder on your windshield. If you’re planning a trip to Arizona Snowbowl or just trying to navigate Milton Road without losing your mind, you need to look past the little sun emojis.
The Reality of the 14 Day Forecast Flagstaff AZ
The current outlook through late January 2026 shows a bit of a split personality. We’ve got this ridge of high pressure keeping things dry through about the 20th. Expect clear, bluebird skies. Honestly, it’s great for the "leaf-peepers" who are now "snow-seekers," but the lack of fresh precip is making the local skiers a little restless.
Current Daily Trends:
- January 15 - 17: We’re seeing highs around 49°F to 55°F. Sounds balmy, right? Don't be fooled. The lows are hitting 30°F or lower. That’s a 25-degree drop the second the sun dips behind the San Francisco Peaks.
- January 18 - 22: Clouds start creeping in. We’re looking at more "overcast" days. Temps will hover in the high 40s. It’s that gray, crisp mountain air that makes you want to live inside a coffee shop.
- January 23 - 28: This is the window to watch. Long-range models are hinting at a dip in the jet stream. We might see a transition from "sunny and dry" to "icy mix." There’s a roughly 15-20% chance of snow showers toward the end of next week.
Predictions this far out are basically an educated guess. The National Weather Service in Flagstaff (the folks over at Pulliam Airport) will tell you that the "upslope flow" can turn a tiny moisture patch into a legitimate storm in hours.
Why 7,000 Feet Changes Everything
Elevation is the boss here. You aren't in Phoenix. You aren't even in Sedona.
Flagstaff sits at nearly 7,000 feet, which means the atmosphere is thin. That thin air doesn't hold heat. When you look at the 14 day forecast Flagstaff AZ, you have to account for the "feels like" factor. A 50-degree day in the sun feels like 65. The same 50-degree day with a 15-mph wind off the peaks feels like 35.
The wind is the real killer.
I’ve seen days where the sky is perfectly clear, but the wind is gusting at 30 mph. It whistles through the pines and makes the car shake. If the forecast says "windy," believe it. It’ll delay the lifts at Snowbowl and make walking through Downtown Flagstaff feel like a polar expedition.
Sun Damage in January?
Yeah, it’s a thing.
Because of that altitude, the UV rays are no joke. People come up here for the snow and go home with a "goggle tan" that’s actually a second-degree burn. Even if the forecast says it's cloudy, the reflection off the snow (if there’s any left on the ground) will get you. Wear the SPF. You’ve been warned.
Planning for the "Snow-In"
While the next 14 days look mostly dry, Flagstaff is famous for the "Snow-In." This is when a storm stalls over Northern Arizona and drops two feet of the heavy, wet stuff.
Local experts like the team at the Arizona Emergency Information Network (AzEIN) emphasize that Januaries are unpredictable. Even a "dry" 14-day window can have a 24-hour window where the I-40 becomes a parking lot.
If you are driving up from the valley, check the ADOT cameras (az511.gov). If the 14-day forecast shows a "chance of showers" around the 23rd, that’s your signal to pack the emergency kit.
Your "Flagstaff Survival" Car Kit:
- A real ice scraper (not a credit card).
- Blankets. Seriously. Not just one.
- A full tank of gas. Fuel lines can freeze, and if you get stuck in a "windrow" on a side street, you'll want that heater running.
- Water and snacks.
Don't be that person who tries to drive a RWD sedan up to the Snowbowl during a "light icy mix." You will end up in a ditch, and the locals will not be sympathetic while they’re trying to get to work.
What Most People Get Wrong About Flagstaff Winters
Most people think it’s just "cold."
It’s actually "volatile."
The 14 day forecast Flagstaff AZ might show a high of 52°F on a Tuesday. You think, "Great, I'll wear a t-shirt." By Tuesday night, it’s 18°F. That’s a massive swing. If you’re staying at the Weatherford or one of the historic spots downtown, you’ll notice those old buildings hold the cold.
Also, the "dry" part of the forecast is a double-edged sword. Dry air means your skin will crack and you’ll get a bloody nose if you aren't hydrated. Drink twice the water you think you need. The altitude and the low humidity will dehydrate you before you even feel thirsty.
Final Word on the Next Two Weeks
Keep an eye on the dates between January 22nd and January 25th. While the current outlook is "mostly sunny," there is a shift in the pressure systems that could bring moisture.
If you're looking for powder, you might have to wait until the very end of the month. If you’re looking for clear hiking weather, this upcoming weekend is your gold mine.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the daily lows: Don't just look at the high. If the low is 15°F, your pipes at your Airbnb might need a drip.
- Layer up: Carry a shell jacket even if it looks nice out. The wind is unpredictable.
- Monitor az511.gov: Before you head up the hill, check the road conditions. A "clear" forecast doesn't mean the black ice from last night's melt is gone.
- Hydrate: Buy a gallon of water the second you hit town. Your head and your skin will thank you.
Stay warm, stay hydrated, and don't trust a clear sky to stay that way for long.