If you’re refreshing your browser looking for that familiar interactive bracket with the little team logos and the "Chance to Make Playoffs" percentages, I’ve got some bad news. The nfl playoff odds fivethirtyeight used to publish—those data-driven projections that felt like the pulse of the league—are officially a thing of the past.
Disney effectively pulled the plug on the sports side of FiveThirtyEight in mid-2023. By March 2025, the entire brand was shuttered. It's a bummer. For a decade, we relied on Nate Silver’s Elo ratings to tell us exactly how much a Week 14 loss hurt the Cowboys' seeding or if the Jaguars actually had a 4% prayer of winning the division. Now, the old URL just redirects to ABC News slop.
But look, the math didn't die. It just moved. If you’re trying to figure out who’s actually going to be playing in mid-January 2026, you just have to know where to look.
What Happened to the FiveThirtyEight Model?
Honestly, it was a corporate bloodbath. When Nate Silver left the building, he took his proprietary algorithms with him. ABC News tried to keep a version of it going for a minute with G. Elliott Morris, but the focus shifted almost entirely to political polling for the 2024 election. Once that cycle ended, Disney decided the "streamlined" version of 538 wasn't worth the overhead.
The "Elo" system they used was basically a way of rewarding teams for who they beat, not just that they won. If a 2-10 team beat a 10-2 team, their rating would skyrocket. It was elegant. It was clean. And now, it’s gone from the mainstream.
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Where to Find 2026 NFL Playoff Odds Today
Since you can't get your fix at the old spot, you've gotta pivot. The landscape in 2026 is a bit more fragmented. You have to mix "market" odds (what Vegas thinks) with "model" odds (what the nerds think).
1. The Silver Bulletin (The "OG" Successor)
Nate Silver didn't stop doing math; he just moved to Substack. His Silver Bulletin is where the actual DNA of the old 538 model lives. While it's more heavy on politics, he still drops sports nuggets and model insights that feel exactly like the old days.
2. FTN Fantasy and DVOA
If you want the "nerdiest" possible replacement, look at FTN Fantasy. They use DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). It’s arguably more accurate than Elo because it looks at every single play. A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-10. Their playoff odds report simulates the season 25,000 times.
3. NFElo and Phil Thompson
There are two "indie" sites that have basically rebuilt the FiveThirtyEight NFL model from scratch.
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- NFElo: This site is a godsend. It keeps the same visual feel and uses a modified Elo system that actually accounts for QB changes—something the old 538 model struggled with.
- Phil Thompson’s NFL Elo: A very clean, data-first site that tracks every team's rating back to the 1920s. If you miss the "purity" of the 538 rankings, this is your home.
The Current 2025-2026 Playoff Picture
As of mid-January 2026, the "odds" are telling a wild story. The Seattle Seahawks have emerged as a statistical juggernaut. Most models had them as a fringe wild card team in August, but their Elo rating has spiked higher than any team in the NFC.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are living out a statistical nightmare. They had a top-3 chance to win the Super Bowl until Bo Nix went down with a broken ankle. Watching their playoff win probability drop from 15% to 8% in a single afternoon is exactly why we love (and hate) these trackers.
The "Implied Probability" Trick
If you don't trust the blogs, go to the sportsbooks. You can convert their odds into percentages yourself.
- -500 odds = 83.3% chance
- +150 odds = 40% chance
- -110 odds = 52.4% chance
Why We Still Miss the 538 Interactive
The magic of the nfl playoff odds fivethirtyeight tracker wasn't just the numbers. It was the "what-if" simulator. You could check a box to see what happened if the Jets beat the Bills, and the whole playoff bracket would shift in real-time.
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Today, the NFL’s own "Playoff Predictor" tool is fine, but it’s a bit corporate. It doesn't give you that raw "1 in 100" vibe that made the 538 upsets feel so massive.
Actionable Steps for the 2026 Postseason
Stop looking for the ghost of FiveThirtyEight and start building your own dashboard. Here is how I’d track the rest of the 2026 playoffs:
- Bookmark NFElo: It is the closest thing to a 1:1 replacement for the old Elo interface.
- Watch the DVOA rankings on FTN: If a team has a high playoff percentage but low DVOA, they are frauds. Bet against them.
- Check the Silver Bulletin: Use it for the high-level "big picture" takes that Nate Silver still excels at.
- Ignore the "Power Rankings" on major networks: Those are based on vibes and TV ratings. Stick to the models that use margin of victory and strength of schedule.
The era of one site ruling the "nerd-sphere" of football is over. We’re in a decentralized world now. It takes a little more work to find the nfl playoff odds fivethirtyeight used to provide, but the data is actually better than it’s ever been if you know where to dig.
Go check the current Elo spreads before the Saturday games kick off. The numbers usually know something the announcers don't.