Long Island weather is basically a mood ring. One minute you're enjoying a crisp winter sun, and the next you're looking at a "glancing blow" of snow that might or might not bury your driveway. Honestly, if you live between Nassau and the East End, you know the drill. You don't just check the temperature; you check the wind direction because a west wind off the sound feels a whole lot different than a breeze coming up from the south.
Right now, we are staring down a stretch that is gonna keep you on your toes.
The Five Day Weather Forecast Long Island Breakdown
If you're planning your week, don't get too comfortable. Today, Friday, January 16, started out brutal. We're talking a current temperature of 21°F that feels like a stinging 9°F thanks to 13 mph winds coming out of the west.
The high for today is only hitting 35°F. It's sunny for now, which is nice for the soul but doesn't do much for the toes. Tonight, things cloud up. We’ve got a low of 22°F and a 20% chance of some nighttime snow. It's not the "big one," but it's enough to make the LIE a bit greasy for the late-night crowd.
Saturday is where it gets messy.
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The temperature climbs to 41°F, which sounds great until you see the "light rain" and snow mix. We have a 40% chance of precipitation during the day. It’s that classic Long Island slush-maker. The wind shifts to the southwest at 12 mph, pulling in just enough moisture to be annoying. By Saturday night, the low hangs around 34°F.
Sunday and the "Glancing Blow" Scenario
Sunday, January 18, is the day everyone is watching. Meteorologists are talking about a coastal storm emerging off the Carolinas.
If it stays south, the East End might just get a light dusting. If it wobbles north? Well, then we’re talking plowable snow. As of right now, the data suggests a high of 37°F with light snow likely during the day. The chance sits at 25% for both day and night, with a low of 24°F. It’s a low-confidence forecast, which basically means keep the shovel near the door but don't cancel your plans just yet.
Monday brings back the sun but drops the floor on the temperature.
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We’re looking at a high of 35°F and a bone-chilling low of 16°F. If you’re commuting, that 14 mph southwest wind is going to make the platform feel like an icebox.
By Tuesday, the arctic air really moves in.
- High: 21°F
- Low: 16°F
- Condition: Sunny but deceivingly cold
- Wind: West at 14 mph
Basically, Tuesday is the day you wear the heavy parka.
Why the East End Always Wins (or Loses)
There is a weird phenomenon with the five day weather forecast Long Island residents have to deal with: the "fringe effect." Because we’re a literal sandbar sticking out into the Atlantic, we get hit by "glancing blows" from coastal storms that miss New York City entirely.
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News 12 is currently tracking two scenarios for this weekend. Scenario one is the "southern track," where the jet stream pushes the energy away, leaving us with maybe 2 to 3 inches of light fluff. Scenario two is the "northerly track." That’s the one that shuts down the Northern State Parkway.
The trend this season has been storms moving further north than expected. However, we are currently in a pattern change. An arctic outbreak is pushing down, and that heavy, cold air might be strong enough to shove the weekend storm further out to sea.
What This Means for Your Week
You've gotta be prepared for the ice. Friday morning already saw black ice warnings in the Town of Oyster Bay and Bethpage. With temperatures dipping into the teens by Monday and Tuesday, any leftover slush from Saturday’s rain-snow mix is going to turn into a skating rink.
If you are using space heaters to combat the 16°F lows coming early next week, be smart. Fire officials across Nassau and Suffolk are already seeing an uptick in calls.
Basically, the next five days are a transition from "chilly winter" to "deep freeze."
Actionable Insights for the Week:
- Saturday Prep: Since Saturday morning looks like rain and snow, get your errands done Friday while it's sunny.
- Watch the Sunday Update: Check the forecast Saturday evening. That's when we'll know if the coastal storm is a "nothing burger" or a "plowable event."
- Pipe Protection: With Monday and Tuesday nights hitting 16°F, make sure your outdoor hoses are disconnected and any vulnerable pipes are insulated.
- Salt the Walkways: Do it before the Sunday night freeze. Once that 24°F low hits, anything wet is staying frozen until Wednesday.