You’re staring at the screen. It’s Sunday morning. You’ve got the parlay nearly built, but that one slot is empty: first TD scorer. It’s the ultimate "hero or zero" bet. Most people just pick the guy with the coolest name or whoever had a big game last week. Honestly? That's how you lose money. To actually win, you have to look at first td scorer stats with a bit more nuance than just checking the box score.
It's about probability, not just talent.
The Math Behind the First Spike
Here's a reality check. In the 2025 NFL regular season, we saw some wild trends that totally bucked what the "experts" were saying in August. Everyone expected the big-name receivers to dominate the opening drives. Instead, the guys moving the needle were often the high-volume backs and, surprisingly, a few dual-threat quarterbacks who get greedy near the goal line.
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Take Zach Charbonnet of the Seahawks or Jahmyr Gibbs from the Lions. Both of these guys finished the 2025 regular season with five "Game-First" touchdowns. That means they didn't just score first for their team; they scored the very first touchdown of the entire game.
Why? It’s not just because they’re good. It’s the script.
Coaches like Dan Campbell in Detroit love to establish the run early. If the Lions win the toss and march 75 yards, they aren't looking for a 40-yard bomb to Amon-Ra St. Brown on the first play. They’re grinding. Gibbs is the beneficiary of that philosophy. If you’re betting on first TD scorers, you aren't just betting on a player. You’re betting on a coaching staff's ego.
2025 Frequency Leaders
- Zach Charbonnet (SEA): 5 Game-First TDs
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET): 5 Game-First TDs
- De'Von Achane (MIA): 4 Game-First TDs
- Christian McCaffrey (SF): 4 Game-First TDs
- Derrick Henry (BAL): 4 Game-First TDs
It's interesting to note that while Derrick Henry led the Ravens in team-first touchdowns (he scored his team's first TD 7 times), he only actually "won" the game-first bet twice. That tells you the Ravens' defense might be letting teams score on them early, or maybe Lamar Jackson likes to take his time. Either way, "Team First" and "Game First" are two very different beasts in the world of first td scorer stats.
Why the Coin Toss is Your Secret Weapon
You've probably ignored the coin toss stats. Stop doing that.
Some teams have a massive "First Possession" success rate. In 2025, the Indianapolis Colts were absolute monsters, scoring the game's first touchdown in nearly 85% of their contests through Week 15. That is a staggering number. If the Colts are playing, you basically have to pick one of their guys.
Conversely, the New York Jets were a black hole. They went through a stretch where they didn't score the first touchdown in eight straight games. Betting on a Jets player to score first in 2025 was essentially donating to your sportsbook.
Team Success Rates (2025 Regular Season)
- Colts: 84.6% (11/13 games)
- Jaguars: 76.9% (10/13 games)
- Seahawks: 70.6% (12/17 games)
- Rams: 69.2% (9/13 games)
When the Seahawks play, the stats scream "look at the backfield." Zach Charbonnet became a statistical darling because Seattle's script was so consistent. They wanted him involved early. On the flip side, teams like the New Orleans Saints (15.4% FTD rate) were so slow out of the gate that betting their players was a lost cause regardless of how talented Chris Olave is.
Positional Bias: The Great Deception
Most casual fans think wide receivers are the best bet because they have the most "Anytime TD" highlights. The data says otherwise.
In a sample of 2025 games, Running Backs and Wide Receivers were neck-and-neck, but the value is often with the RBs or even the TEs. Look at Harold Fannin Jr. in Cleveland or Hunter Henry in New England. These guys aren't superstars, yet they ended up with 4 and 3 opening scores respectively.
Why? Red zone target share.
Hunter Henry, for instance, only had an 18% overall target share for the Patriots. That sounds mediocre. But in the red zone? That number spiked to 33.8%. When Drake Maye gets the team down to the 5-yard line on the opening drive, he isn't looking for a contested catch on the sideline. He’s looking for his big tight end in the middle of the field.
The Quarterback "Vulture" Factor
You also can't ignore the guys who run it in themselves. Josh Allen had 14 rushing touchdowns in 2025. That’s five more than the next closest quarterback. In the Divisional Round against the Broncos, Allen was a popular pick at +600. When a QB has that much "gravity" near the goal line, he siphons away the value from his running backs. If you're looking at first td scorer stats for the Bills, you're usually choosing between Allen or James Cook, and Allen is the one who wants it more in the big moments.
How to Actually Use These Stats
Don't just chase the "hot hand." A guy scoring the first TD two weeks in a row is often a fluke of the game script. Instead, look for these three things:
1. The "Script" vs. The Defense
Does the team you're betting on face a defense that struggles against a specific position? For example, the Los Angeles Rams ranked 24th in 2025 against outside zone runs. If they were playing the Bears, D'Andre Swift (who ran outside zones 51.3% of the time) became a statistical lock for early-game usage.
2. Red Zone Concentration
Who gets the ball inside the 10? In Seattle, Zach Charbonnet out-carried Kenneth Walker 10-to-1 inside the red zone over the final stretch of the season. That makes "Charbs" the primary target for a first TD bet, even if Walker is the bigger name.
3. Home/Road Splits
Some teams are just better at home. The roar of the crowd, the comfort of the turf—it matters. In 2025, the Detroit Lions were significantly more likely to score first at Ford Field than on the road.
Actionable Next Steps
If you want to start winning these bets, stop looking at total season touchdowns. That's a trap. Instead, follow these steps:
- Find the "First Possession" stats for the current week's matchups.
- Identify which teams consistently receive the ball (or win the toss and choose to receive, though rare).
- Look at the red zone target/carry distribution from the last three games only. Offensive coordinators change their minds quickly.
- Check for injuries to starting Tight Ends. As we saw with Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco, when George Kittle was out, McCaffrey’s receiving TD probability skyrocketed because the "safety valve" targets shifted to him.
Stop betting with your heart and start betting with the script. The stats are there; you just have to look at the right ones.
For your next move, go check the injury report for the offensive line. A missing starting left tackle can turn a high-flying passing offense into a "run-it-up-the-gut" team real fast, completely flipping the value of your first TD pick.