Honestly, the first round MLB draft is a bit of a lie. We treat it like the NFL or NBA draft where a kid puts on a hat, walks across a stage, and starts for your team three months later. In baseball? You’re basically buying a very expensive lottery ticket and hoping the kid doesn't decide to get a case of the "yips" in Class-A ball.
It’s messy. It’s high-stakes. And right now, as we look toward the 2026 cycle, the room is getting very crowded with shortstops.
Why the Chicago White Sox are winning before the first pitch
The draft lottery changed everything. Gone are the days when you could just "tank" and guarantee the top pick. On December 9, 2025, the ping-pong balls finally bounced in favor of the South Side. The Chicago White Sox officially secured the No. 1 overall selection in the first round MLB draft for 2026.
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They had a 27.73% chance. They actually won.
For a team that’s been through the ringer lately, this is the ultimate reset button. When you have the first pick, you aren't just looking for a "good" player. You’re looking for a franchise-altering talent. Usually, that’s a guy who can play premium defense and still hit 30 homers.
The Roch Cholowsky factor
Most experts are already penciling in Roch Cholowsky from UCLA as the top guy. He’s a shortstop. He’s got the "it" factor. Interestingly, Cholowsky was actually a two-sport star at Hamilton High who initially loved football more than the diamond.
That athleticism shows. He’s a junior now, and his defensive highlights look like something out of a video game. If the White Sox take him, they’re getting the most "polished" college bat we’ve seen in a minute.
The shortstop obsession in the first round MLB draft
If you look at the early rankings for 2026, it’s honestly kind of ridiculous how many shortstops are at the top. We're talking about a logjam.
- Roch Cholowsky (UCLA) – The polished leader.
- Grady Emerson (Fort Worth Christian HS) – The top prep name.
- Justin Lebron (Alabama) – Huge ceiling, slightly raw.
- Jacob Lombard (Gulliver Prep) – Bloodlines matter; his brother is a top Yankees prospect.
Why do teams draft so many shortstops in the first round MLB draft? It’s simple: you can always move a shortstop to second, third, or the outfield. You rarely move a right fielder to shortstop. It’s about "asset flexibility." If a kid can handle the most difficult spot on the dirt, he can play anywhere.
But here’s the thing—high school shortstops are the biggest risk in the world. You’re betting that a 17-year-old’s body will fill out correctly and that he won't lose his range. Grady Emerson is the name to watch here. He’s a Texas commit, and he’s got that "twitchy" athleticism that scouts drool over.
The arms race: Who’s actually worth the money?
Drafting pitchers in the first round is like dating a ghost. They’re there one day and gone the next with a torn UCL. Yet, teams still spend millions on them.
Carson Bolemon from Southside Christian is currently the "it" pitcher for 2026. He’s a lefty. He’s got four pitches. He’s got "command," which is scout-speak for "he doesn't walk everyone."
Right behind him is Gio Rojas out of Stoneman Douglas. If that school sounds familiar, it’s because they produce pros like a factory. Rojas can touch 98 mph already. When you see a high school kid throwing 98, you don't care if he can't find the strike zone with a GPS—you draft him and hope your coaches can fix the rest.
The "Luxury Tax" trap
You might notice some teams aren't picking where they "should" be. This is where the business side gets annoying. The Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays all blew past the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds.
Because they spent too much on free agents, their first picks in the first round MLB draft get shoved down 10 spots.
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Imagine being a fan and seeing your team finish with a mediocre record, only to realize your draft pick is at No. 28 because the owner wanted to sign a 34-year-old closer. It’s a brutal penalty.
Misconceptions about "Bust" rates
People love to call first-rounders "busts" if they aren't in the Big Leagues by age 22. That’s unfair. Baseball development isn't linear.
Look at someone like Anthony Volpe. When the Yankees took him 30th overall, people thought he was just a "high-floor" kid with no power. He spent the pandemic reworking his swing, added strength, and suddenly he's a Gold Glover with 20-20 potential.
The first round MLB draft is about the "long game." You aren't drafting for your current roster; you're drafting for the version of your team that exists in 2029.
What the 2026 order looks like (The Top 6)
Thanks to the lottery results from December, we actually know the top of the board:
- 1. Chicago White Sox (Hit the jackpot)
- 2. Tampa Bay Rays (The masters of finding value)
- 3. Minnesota Twins (In a great spot for a college bat)
- 4. San Francisco Giants (Looking at Drew Burress, maybe?)
- 5. Pittsburgh Pirates (They love high-ceiling high schoolers)
- 6. Kansas City Royals (Likely looking for a front-line starter)
The Rockies, Nationals, and Angels were actually ineligible for the lottery this time around. There’s a rule that prevents large-market teams (and "payor" clubs) from winning lottery picks back-to-back. It’s MLB’s way of saying "stop being bad on purpose."
How to track these kids before July 11
The draft actually starts on July 11, 2026. Between now and then, these guys have to survive a full college or high school season.
If you want to see who’s legit, watch the MLB Draft League. The first half of the season (June 2 to July 5) is where the draft-eligible kids go to prove they can handle wood bats. It’s a "sink or swim" environment. If a kid is hitting .150 in the Draft League, his stock is going to tank faster than a lead balloon.
Actionable insights for fans and collectors
If you’re following the first round MLB draft to get ahead in fantasy baseball or card collecting, pay attention to "helium." That’s the term scouts use for players who suddenly gain velocity or power in the spring.
Keep an eye on Justin Lebron at Alabama. If he cuts down the strikeouts, he could leapfrog Cholowsky for the No. 1 spot. Also, watch the international market. While those guys sign as free agents (not through the draft), their talent level often dictates how aggressive teams get with their draft picks.
The best way to stay informed is to follow the SEC baseball season closely. The SEC is basically "AAA-lite" at this point. If a player like Drew Burress or Liam Peterson is dominating on Friday nights in April, they are a lock for a top-10 selection.
Focus on the college juniors first. They are the "safe" bets. The high schoolers are the "dream" bets. Knowing the difference is how you actually understand the chaos of the draft.