Wall Street has a short memory. If you asked the average investor about this ticker two years ago, they’d probably just groan about the TD Bank merger that fell apart in a mess of regulatory red tape. But honestly? That’s ancient history. First Horizon National stock—or First Horizon Corporation as the suits officially call it—has completely flipped the script.
While everyone was busy worrying about regional bank contagions and "too big to fail" monsters, this Memphis-based powerhouse was quietly getting its house in order. Today, January 15, 2026, the company just dropped its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, and the numbers are, frankly, a bit of a blowout.
The stock market is a weird place. It punishes you for what might happen and rewards you for what you actually do. Right now, First Horizon is doing a lot.
The 2025 Victory Lap: By the Numbers
Let's cut through the jargon. People usually tune out when they hear "Net Interest Margin" or "Provision for Credit Losses," but you kinda need to look at these to see why the stock is moving.
First Horizon reported full-year 2025 net income of $956 million. That’s an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.87. If you’re keeping score at home, that is a massive 38% jump from the year before. Just today, the bank beat analyst expectations for the fourth quarter, posting $0.52 per share against a predicted $0.46.
Investors love a surprise. Not the "your car broke down" kind of surprise, but the "we made more money than the experts thought" kind.
Why the stock jumped 2.2% this morning
- Loan Growth: Total loans grew by 2% just in the last three months.
- Cost Control: They’re keeping expenses "flattish," which is a word CFOs use when they don't want to say "we're being cheap."
- Capital Returns: They bought back nearly $900 million of their own stock in 2025. That’s a huge signal of confidence.
Basically, they are leaner and more profitable than they've been in years. CEO Bryan Jordan noted that the bank hit a 15% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) in the second half of 2025. In the banking world, that’s like hitting a home run in the bottom of the ninth.
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What Most People Get Wrong About First Horizon National Stock
There’s this lingering idea that First Horizon is just a "Southern bank." Sure, they’re headquartered in Tennessee, and they have a massive footprint in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. But thinking they are just a local lender is a mistake.
They’ve built out a counter-cyclical business model. When interest rates are high, they make money on loans. When rates drop—which everyone expects in 2026—their fixed-income and mortgage-related businesses tend to pick up the slack.
It's a balancing act.
Also, can we talk about the TD Bank ghost? Many investors stayed away from First Horizon after that $13.4 billion deal died in 2023. They thought the bank was "damaged goods." Instead, First Horizon used the $200 million termination fee and their freed-up capital to go on an aggressive hiring spree. They poached talent while others were laying people off.
That "failed" merger might have been the best thing to ever happen to them.
The 2026 Outlook: Growth or Grinding?
Looking ahead, management is signaling revenue growth of 3% to 7% for the coming year. That sounds modest, but in a world where many banks are struggling to keep deposits from fleeing to high-yield money market funds, it’s actually quite aggressive.
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The bank is focusing on "fill-in" acquisitions. They aren't looking for another massive, complicated merger that regulators will block. Instead, they want small, strategic bites—banks that fit their culture and give them more "low-cost" deposits.
Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
The pros are starting to notice. Raymond James just hiked their price target to $28.00. RBC Capital is sitting at the same level. With the stock currently hovering around $24.50, that implies about a 15% upside.
Is it a "buy" for everyone? Maybe not. If you’re looking for a tech-style moonshot, a regional bank isn't for you. But if you like a 2.45% dividend yield and a company that is consistently beating its own goals, it's hard to ignore.
Real Risks to Watch
It isn't all Memphis blues and sunshine. Banking is risky business. If the economy takes a hard left turn into a recession, loan defaults go up.
Specifically:
- Commercial Real Estate (CRE): Everyone is terrified of office buildings. First Horizon has a CRE portfolio, though they claim the pace of "paydowns" is slowing and credit quality is holding up.
- Interest Rate Volatility: If the Fed cuts rates too fast, the bank’s profit margin on loans could get squeezed.
- Competition: Big banks like JP Morgan are spending billions on technology. First Horizon has to keep up without breaking the bank (literally).
Honestly, the biggest risk might just be boredom. Regional banks aren't flashy. They don't make headlines for AI breakthroughs or colonizing Mars. They make headlines for "disciplined risk management."
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Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at First Horizon National stock, don't just stare at the daily ticker. That's a recipe for a headache. Instead, look at the "CET1 ratio"—a measure of a bank's capital strength. First Horizon is sitting at 10.64%, which is very healthy.
Here is how to play it:
- Check the Dividend: The current quarterly payout is $0.15 per share. It’s steady. If you’re a dividend reinvestment (DRIP) person, this is a solid "set it and forget it" play.
- Watch the Share Buybacks: The bank just authorized a new $1.2 billion repurchase program. When a company buys back its own stock, it usually means they think the market is underpricing them.
- Monitor the South: The regions First Horizon operates in (the "Sunbelt") are growing faster than the rest of the country. If people keep moving to Nashville and Dallas, First Horizon wins.
Keep an eye on the next earnings report in April. If they continue to show that 15% ROTCE, the $28 price target might actually be too conservative.
The "failed merger" tag is officially gone. This is a standalone growth story now.
Next Steps for Your Portfolio:
Review your current exposure to regional banks. If you are heavily weighted in West Coast or Northeast banks, First Horizon offers a way to diversify into the higher-growth Southeast markets. Compare the current P/E ratio of ~14.7 against peers like Regions Financial or Fifth Third to see if the valuation still makes sense for your entry point.