You’ve probably seen the headlines or the hazy satellite maps. Maybe you've felt that dry, scratchy air while walking through Mexico City or seen the smoke plumes on the horizon in Durango. It’s early 2026, and while much of the world is looking at the catastrophic blazes in Chile right now, the situation with fire in Mexico today is a bit of a different beast.
Honestly, people often think Mexico is one giant tinderbox the moment January hits. That's not quite right.
The Ground Truth on January 18, 2026
If you look at the hard data from the Comisión Nacional Forestal (CONAFOR), we aren't in "record-breaking" territory yet for the 2026 season. But—and it's a big but—we are seeing some weirdly high activity in places that usually stay quiet this early.
Durango is currently the hotspot. Literally.
As of this week, Durango has reported 17 high-confidence fire alerts. That doesn't sound like much until you realize it's about 4% of the entire country's current fire activity. For January? That’s unusually high. Usually, we don’t see that kind of aggressive sparking until March or April when the heat really settles into the Sierra Madre Occidental.
💡 You might also like: Percentage of Women That Voted for Trump: What Really Happened
Why the "Peak" Hasn't Even Started
The thing you have to understand about fire in Mexico today is that we are technically still in the "pre-game" phase.
The peak fire season in Mexico typically kicks off in early March. It lasts about 14 weeks. Right now, between January 9 and January 16, 2026, there were roughly 2,977 VIIRS fire alerts nationwide. Only 111 of those were "high confidence" forest fires. The rest? They're mostly agricultural burns.
Farmers are clearing land. It's a centuries-old tradition called tumba, roza y quema.
The problem is the drought.
📖 Related: What Category Was Harvey? The Surprising Truth Behind the Number
Last year, in 2025, Mexico lost a staggering amount of primary forest—almost double what was lost in 2023. The ground is thirsty. When a farmer lights a small pile of brush in Chiapas or Oaxaca, the wind doesn't need much of an excuse to carry a spark into the nearby timber.
What's Happening in the Cities?
In Mexico City, the concern isn't always a forest fire inside the city limits. It’s the smoke.
Just over a week ago, a gas explosion in the Paseos de Taxqueña neighborhood of Mexico City reminded everyone how dangerous "fire" can be in an urban setting, leaving 27 families homeless. While that's not a wildfire, it contributes to a general sense of "fire anxiety" in the capital.
The air quality in the Valley of Mexico is already starting to dip. You can smell it. It’s that distinctive mix of exhaust and distant burning wood.
👉 See also: When Does Joe Biden's Term End: What Actually Happened
The Regions to Watch
- Durango: As mentioned, it's punching above its weight class right now.
- Tabasco and Chiapas: These southern states are seeing a lot of "points of heat." Much of this is still agricultural, but the proximity to tropical forests is a constant worry.
- Baja California: Things are actually "normal" here for once. Since January 1, we've only seen about 6 high-confidence alerts in the region.
Real Talk: Climate Change vs. Management
Sergio Humberto Graf Montero, a former big name at CONAFOR, has often argued that fires aren't necessarily the same thing as deforestation. He’s right, in a technical sense. A forest can burn and regrow. But with the current droughts, the "regrow" part is getting harder.
Mexico is also being a good neighbor. Just last year, President Claudia Sheinbaum sent Mexican firefighting teams to Los Angeles to help with their crises. It shows that Mexico’s fire experts—the combatientes—are some of the best in the world. They have to be. They deal with everything from high-altitude pine forests to swampy mangroves.
Misconceptions You Should Drop
A lot of people think every fire is a disaster. It’s not.
Fire is a natural part of the temperate forests in the north. The issue is when we stop all small fires, the fuel builds up. Then, when a fire finally starts, it’s a monster. Mexico is trying to move toward better "fire management" rather than just "fire suppression," but it’s an uphill battle when the budget is tight and the weather is getting weirder.
Actionable Steps for Today
If you are in or traveling to Mexico right now, don't just "be careful." Be specific.
- Monitor the AQI: Use the SIMAT (Sistema de Monitoreo Atmosférico) app if you're in Mexico City. If the index hits "Mala," stay inside.
- Report, Don't Fight: If you see smoke in the forest, call 800-737-0000. It’s the national CONAFOR hotline. Don't try to be a hero with a bucket of water.
- Check the Wind: If you're in Durango or Chihuahua, keep an eye on wind alerts. Fires here move faster than a person can run when the gusts pick up.
- Support Local Brigades: Many communities in Oaxaca and Guerrero rely on volunteer "Comunitario" brigades. They often need basic gear like boots and gloves more than anything else.
The reality of fire in Mexico today is a mix of traditional farming, extreme drought, and a landscape that is slowly changing. We aren't in a national emergency yet, but the smoke on the horizon is telling us to get ready for a long, dry spring.