Honestly, the vibe in the markets right now is just... odd. We just wrapped up the first full trading week of 2026, and if you’re looking at your brokerage account today, Saturday, January 17, you’re probably seeing a whole lot of mixed signals. The major indexes—the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq—basically spent the last five days tripping over their own feet, ending the week with modest losses.
It’s not a crash. Not even close. But it’s that annoying kind of volatility where good news feels like bad news, and the "Trump Card" is being played in ways nobody quite expected.
The Fed Chair Drama is Getting Messy
Most people are obsessing over the Federal Reserve right now. And for good reason. Jerome Powell’s term is winding down, and the speculation about who takes the big seat in May is currently the biggest mover of Treasury yields.
On Friday, President Trump basically threw a wrench in the gears by hinting that he might not appoint Kevin Hassett to replace Powell. Why does that matter? Well, the market had already priced in Hassett as a guy who would aggressively slash interest rates. When Trump suggested keeping Hassett in his current advisor role instead, bond traders freaked out a bit.
The 10-year Treasury yield shot up to 4.23%. That’s the highest we've seen since September.
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Higher yields usually mean lower stock prices because borrowing gets more expensive. It’s why you saw the Dow drop about 83 points and the S&P 500 dip just below that 7,000 milestone everyone was rooting for. We’re sitting at 6,940.01 right now. So close, yet so far.
AI is Still the Only Party in Town (Mostly)
If you own chip stocks, you’re probably doing okay. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) dropped some massive earnings numbers earlier in the week, and that optimism is still trickling down. Micron (MU) was the star of the show on Friday, soaring nearly 8% after a regulatory filing showed an insider bought $8 million worth of stock.
That’s a huge "vote of confidence" signal.
But there’s a massive "chasm" forming, as some analysts call it. While the hardware guys (chips) are winning, the software companies are getting hammered. Investors are terrified that "AI-native" startups are going to eat the lunch of established giants like Workday or Palantir.
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- Micron (MU): Up 7.76%
- Super Micro (SMCI): Up nearly 11%
- Constellation Energy (CEG): Down 10% (Ouch.)
Wait, why did Constellation Energy tank?
Basically, the administration is looking into an "emergency power auction." They want Big Tech companies to pay more for the massive amount of electricity their AI data centers are sucking up. If you’re a utility company, that kind of regulatory meddling is a nightmare.
The "Trump Card" and Your Wallet
The latest news isn't just about stocks; it’s about your actual cash. Kevin Hassett has been floating this "Trump Card" idea. It’s basically a proposal to expand credit access to people who are reliable but don't have the leverage to get good rates. It’s a response to the pushback on capping credit card interest rates.
Also, a big win for 5 million Americans: the Education Department just announced they are delaying the plan to garnish wages for student loan defaults. They’re saying the system is "broken" and needs a total overhaul before they start taking money out of people's paychecks again.
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What Actually Matters for Next Week
Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so the U.S. markets are closed. Enjoy the breath of fresh air. But Tuesday? Tuesday is going to be a gauntlet.
We’ve got a massive lineup of earnings coming. Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Intel are all on the docket. Intel, specifically, is in a weird spot—they’ve been upgraded recently because they’re supposedly "sold out" of server CPUs for 2026, but they still have a lot to prove.
The IMF is also dropping its World Economic Outlook on January 19. They’re currently projecting global growth at 3.1% for the year. It’s stable, sure, but "underwhelming" is the word they’re using.
Actionable Steps for Your Portfolio
Don't panic-sell because of a 0.3% weekly dip. That’s just noise. Instead, look at the reality of the 2026 landscape:
- Watch the 10-year Yield: If it stays above 4.25%, expect more pressure on tech and housing.
- Check your Software exposure: If you're heavy on old-school SaaS, look into how they are actually integrating AI. If they're just "adding a chatbot," they might be in trouble.
- Rebalance for Energy: The data center power struggle is real. Utilities are volatile right now, but the demand for power isn't going away.
- Prepare for Earnings: Volatility is almost guaranteed next week. Keep some "dry powder" (cash) on the sidelines in case a high-quality name gets unfairly punished after their report.
The market is currently trying to figure out if we’re heading for a "soft landing" or if the 35% recession probability J.P. Morgan is predicting will actually come true. Until then, stay skeptical of the hype and keep an eye on the bond market. It's usually smarter than the stock market anyway.