If you've spent more than five minutes in the federal workforce, you know the "January Surprise" isn't always a party. Sometimes it’s a celebration of a 5.2% bump, and other times it’s a 1.0% shrug that barely covers a monthly streaming subscription. Honestly, trying to track federal pay raises by year feels like reading a weather map in a hurricane.
Everything changes based on who is in the White House, what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says about the private sector, and how much "national emergency" is currently in the air.
The 2026 Reality Check: A Tale of Two Tiers
Right now, everyone is talking about 2026. President Trump’s alternative pay plan basically split the room. For the vast majority of General Schedule (GS) employees, the 2026 across-the-board raise is pegged at 1.0%.
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But there’s a massive exception.
If you’re in law enforcement—think CBP, ICE, Secret Service, or the FBI—you’re looking at a 3.8% total increase. Why the gap? The administration wanted parity with the military raise. It’s a strategy to fix recruitment and retention issues at the border and in high-stakes security roles. For everyone else, locality pay is effectively frozen at 2025 levels.
Recent History: The "High Inflation" Era
The last few years have been a wild ride compared to the stagnation of the early 2010s.
- 2025: We saw a 2.0% overall average increase. It was split into a 1.7% base raise and a 0.3% locality adjustment.
- 2024: This was the "Big One." A 5.2% average increase. That was the highest raise for federal workers in over 40 years.
- 2023: A solid 4.6% average.
It’s easy to look at the 5.2% in 2024 and feel like the 1.0% for 2026 is a slap in the face. But when you look at the 2011-2013 period, where raises were literally 0.0% for three years straight, 1.0% starts to look... well, okay, it still looks small. But it’s not zero.
How the Sausage Gets Made (ECI vs. The President)
There’s a law called FEPCA (Federal Employees Pay Comparability Act of 1990) that is supposed to make this whole process automatic. According to the law, federal raises should be based on the Employment Cost Index (ECI) minus 0.5%.
If we actually followed FEPCA, federal employees would have seen massive double-digit raises decades ago to close the "pay gap" with the private sector. The Federal Salary Council consistently finds that feds are underpaid by over 20% compared to private-sector peers.
But there’s a loophole.
The President can—and almost always does—issue an "alternative pay plan." They cite "economic necessity" or a "national emergency" to override the FEPCA formula. That’s why you’ll see the BLS reporting high wage growth in the private sector, but the federal raise stays lower. It’s a political lever as much as an economic one.
The Locality Pay Trap
Locality pay is the government’s way of acknowledging that $80,000 goes further in Dayton, Ohio, than it does in San Francisco. There are currently over 50 locality pay areas.
Sometimes, your raise isn't just about the percentage. It's about where you live. For 2026, the Federal Salary Council recommended 11 new locality areas, including places like Alexandria, LA. If your county gets added to a high-cost locality area, your paycheck jumps significantly even if the "base" raise is small.
However, for 2026, the executive order keeps those locality percentages at 2025 levels for most people. Essentially, if you were getting a 30% locality bump in 2025, you’re still getting 30% in 2026—just applied to a base salary that is 1.0% higher.
A Decade of Federal Pay Raises by Year
| Year | Total Average Increase | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.0% (General) / 3.8% (LEO) | Priority on law enforcement parity. |
| 2025 | 2.0% | Post-inflation cool down. |
| 2024 | 5.2% | Historic 40-year high. |
| 2023 | 4.6% | Combatting rising consumer costs. |
| 2022 | 2.7% | Mid-pandemic adjustment. |
| 2021 | 1.0% | Conservative growth during uncertainty. |
| 2020 | 3.1% | Pre-pandemic legislative push. |
| 2019 | 1.9% | Ended a period of lower growth. |
| 2018 | 1.9% | Standard cost-of-living focus. |
| 2017 | 2.1% | Modest recovery from the freeze era. |
What You Should Actually Do With This Information
Don't just wait for the OPM tables to drop in late December.
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First, check your specific "Pay Plan." If you aren't GS, but rather SES (Senior Executive Service) or SL/ST (Senior Level/Scientific and Professional), your caps are tied to the Executive Schedule. For 2026, the Level IV cap is projected at $197,200. If your raise pushes you past the cap, you don't get the extra money. It just disappears into the "aggregate limitation" void.
Second, look at your "Within-Grade Increases" (WGI). These are the "steps" within your grade (1 through 10). A step increase is usually worth about 3% of your base pay. If you’re due for a step increase in 2026, that 1.0% federal raise is actually a 4.0% increase for you.
Third, keep an eye on the "Special Rates." OPM often approves higher pay for specific jobs that are hard to fill, like IT or certain engineering roles. Even if the general raise is low, your specific job series might get a "Special Rate Table" that pays way more than the standard GS scale.
Lastly, remember that the pay raise is for active employees. If you're retired, you’re looking at COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment), which is based on the CPI-W inflation index. For 2026, the Social Security and federal retiree COLA is 2.8%. It’s a completely different calculation.
Actionable Next Steps
- Verify your Step anniversary: Check your last SF-50 (Notification of Personnel Action) to see when your next WGI is due. This is your guaranteed raise regardless of what Congress does.
- Monitor OPM.gov in late December: This is when the official 2026 pay tables for every locality will be published.
- Evaluate your "High-3": If you’re within three years of retirement, these annual raises are critical because they set the baseline for your pension for the rest of your life.
- Max out the TSP catch-up: If the 1.0% raise feels small, use it to offset the increased 2026 IRS contribution limits for your Thrift Savings Plan, which moved to $23,500 (plus an $11,250 catch-up for those 60-63).