If you work for the federal government, you've probably spent the last few months looking over your shoulder. Honestly, it’s been a chaotic year. Between the record-breaking 43-day government shutdown that ended in November 2025 and the constant talk of "dismantling the bureaucracy," the term "Reduction in Force" (RIF) has gone from a HR footnote to a daily anxiety.
But here’s the thing about federal employee RIF news that most people are missing: right now, we are in a weird, legally mandated quiet period.
A lot of folks think the layoffs already happened or that they’ve been canceled entirely. Neither is quite true. As of January 14, 2026, we are essentially in the eye of the storm. Congress stepped in with the Continuing Appropriations Act of 2026, which literally froze the administration's ability to fire people using RIF procedures. This freeze isn't permanent. It has an expiration date: January 30, 2026.
The January 30 "Cliff" and What It Actually Means
When the shutdown ended on November 12, 2025, the law included a specific provision—Section 120—that prohibited agencies from using any federal funds to "initiate, provide notice of, or carry out" a RIF.
This was a massive win for federal unions like AFGE and NFFE. It forced the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to tell agencies they had to rescind RIF notices issued between October 1 and November 12. If you were one of the thousands at the State Department or the Small Business Administration who got a "pink slip" during the shutdown, those were legally voided.
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But don't get too comfortable.
The Trump administration has made it very clear that shrinking the workforce is still the goal. They’ve already shed roughly 220,000 workers in 2025. Most of those were through buyouts (the "Deferred Resignation Program") or early retirements, not forced layoffs. Only about 11,000 people were actually laid off in 2025.
Once that January 30 deadline hits, the legal "shield" drops. Unless Congress passes another extension—which is a huge "if" given the current budget battles—agencies will likely start hitting "send" on those RIF notices again.
Why This RIF Cycle is Different (And Scarier)
Historically, a RIF was a slow, agonizingly bureaucratic process. It took 12 to 18 months of planning. You had "bumping" and "retreating" rights where senior employees could take the jobs of junior ones.
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The rules are changing.
The administration is currently finalizing a massive overhaul of OPM regulations. They want to move away from "years of service" and toward "performance" as the primary factor for who stays and who goes.
- The New Math: Under the proposed rules, your last three performance appraisals will be weighted. An "Outstanding" rating might get you 7 points, while an "Unacceptable" gets you 1.
- Speed: They are trying to cut the RIF preparation time down significantly.
- Erosion of Duties: One of the sneakiest changes being discussed is making it easier to downgrade employees to lower-paying roles without using RIF procedures at all, as long as the agency claims your job duties have "eroded."
Schedule F is the Elephant in the Room
You can't talk about federal employee RIF news without mentioning the rebranded "Schedule Policy/Career" (formerly known as Schedule F).
This is the big one. It's set to go into effect on February 13, 2026. This classification would turn tens of thousands of "policy-related" roles into at-will positions. If you are moved into this category, you lose your civil service protections.
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Basically, you could be fired without a RIF. No appeals. No notice periods. Just gone.
The administration estimates about 50,000 employees will be affected, but union leaders fear the number could be much higher. If you're a GS-13 or above, or even a GS-9 in a role that involves "confidential, policy-determining, policy-making, or policy-advocating" work, you’re in the crosshairs.
The Agencies Most at Risk Right Now
It isn't an across-the-board cut. Some agencies are being gutted, while others are actually growing. According to OPM data from earlier this month, the Education Department has already lost about 40% of its staff.
- The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS): They've already seen 4,000 layoffs.
- The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Energy Department: Both have taken massive hits to staff levels in 2025.
- The Secret Service: Surprisingly, this is one of the few places hiring. They, along with the Federal Law Enforcement Training Centers, have actually seen staffing increases.
What You Should Do Before January 30
Honestly? Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. The courts are still fighting over this—the 9th Circuit recently refused to block discovery into the administration’s secret "Agency RIF and Reorganization Plans" (ARRPs). But the Supreme Court has generally signaled it's okay with the President having broad authority over the workforce.
Here is what you need to do immediately:
- Check your SF-50s. Make sure your tenure group and veterans' preference are 100% accurate. If a RIF happens, these are your primary defenses.
- Document your performance. Since the new rules prioritize ratings over seniority, ensure your 2025 appraisals are finalized and in the system. If you disagree with a rating, appeal it now.
- Review your "Competitive Area." A RIF doesn't happen to the whole government; it happens within a specific office or geographic location. Know who you are "competing" against for a spot.
- Save your files. Not the sensitive stuff (don't get fired for security violations), but keep your performance records, commendations, and training certificates outside of your government laptop.
The next two weeks will be a frenzy of budget negotiations on Capitol Hill. If a "minibus" spending bill doesn't include a RIF ban, February 2026 is going to be a very long month for the federal workforce. Keep an eye on the OPM "Latest Memos" page and your union's legislative trackers. The "steady state" of the civil service isn't here yet—it's still being demolished and rebuilt in real-time.