Bitcoin is doing that thing again. You know, the thing where it makes everyone who sold the "dip" feel a sudden, sharp pang of regret. After a brutal stretch that saw nearly $19 billion in liquidations back in October, the vibe has finally shifted. Honestly, it's about time.
Today, January 15, 2026, the fear and greed index crypto today has officially clocked in at 61.
That is "Greed." Pure and simple.
It’s the first time we’ve seen a green reading like this since last autumn. Just yesterday, the index was sitting at a lukewarm 48, which is basically the "waiting for something to happen" zone. Now? The "something" is happening. Bitcoin has clawed its way back to around $97,000, hitting two-month highs and making that psychological $100,000 barrier look like a very real possibility for the weekend.
Why 61 is the magic number right now
In the world of crypto sentiment, 61 isn't just a number. It's a signal. For the last few months, we’ve been trapped in a cycle of "Extreme Fear" and "Neutral" sludge. When the index hits 61, it means the retail crowd is starting to wake up, though surprisingly, they aren't the ones driving this specific bus.
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Data from Santiment shows that over the last 72 hours, about 47,000 smaller Bitcoin addresses actually went to zero. People sold. They got impatient. They saw the price stall and figured the party was over.
And that, ironically, is exactly why the price went up.
When the "impatient crowd" leaves, the selling pressure vanishes. What’s left is a supply on exchanges that has hit a seven-month low of 1.18 million BTC. Basic math kicks in here: less supply plus rising demand equals a vertical line on your chart.
What makes up this index anyway?
If you’re wondering how some website decides the world is "greedy," it’s not just a vibe check. The index, primarily hosted by Alternative.me, pulls from a few different buckets of data to get that 0-100 score:
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- Volatility: They compare current volatility to the averages of the last 30 and 90 days. Unusual spikes usually mean a fearful market.
- Market Momentum/Volume: High buying volume in a positive market suggests the greed is getting experimental.
- Social Media: This is the fun part. They track hashtags and mentions on X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit. If the "Bullish" posts are outnumbering the "It’s over" posts, the needle moves right.
- Dominance: When Bitcoin dominance rises, it often means people are scared of risky altcoins and are fleeing to the "safety" of BTC.
- Google Trends: Are people searching for "Bitcoin price" or "How to sell Bitcoin"? The search intent matters.
The Arthur Hayes factor and 2026 liquidity
You can’t talk about the fear and greed index crypto today without looking at the macro picture. Arthur Hayes recently pointed out that Bitcoin’s somewhat sluggish performance throughout 2025 wasn't because the tech failed. It was a liquidity trap.
The dollar was tight.
Now, as we move deeper into 2026, the pipes are opening back up. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is the "juice" Hayes talks about. If the Fed starts leaning toward expansion again—which many analysts expect—that greed reading of 61 might look like a "Fear" reading compared to where we could be by summer.
Is "Greed" a trap or a signal?
There’s an old Warren Buffett quote everyone in crypto loves to parrot: "Be fearful when others are greedy."
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But here’s the nuance: "Greed" (55-75) is often where the most profitable part of a bull run happens. It’s "Extreme Greed" (76-100) where you should probably start looking for the exit door. At 61, we are in the "healthy optimism" phase. People are excited, but they aren't yet mortgaging their houses to buy Shiba Inu-themed coins. Usually.
We’ve seen this movie before. In early October 2025, the market hit a wall at $125,000 and the index plummeted into the 20s. We spent months there. The fact that we are back in the 60s suggests the "trauma" of that $19 billion liquidation event is finally being processed by the market.
A quick look at the levels
- 0-24 (Extreme Fear): Usually a generational buying opportunity.
- 25-46 (Fear): The "Wall of Worry" where most people stay sidelined.
- 47-54 (Neutral): A coin flip. This was yesterday.
- 55-75 (Greed): Where we are today. Momentum is building.
- 76-100 (Extreme Greed): The danger zone. If you see 90, run.
What you should actually do with this info
Don't just look at the gauge and market buy. That's a great way to get liquidated. Instead, look at the divergence.
Right now, we have a "Greed" score of 61, but social media sentiment is still weirdly bearish. People are posting about "fake pumps" and "impending crashes." This is actually a very bullish setup. When the price rises while the crowd is still skeptical, it means the "smart money" is likely the one doing the buying.
The real risk today isn't the greed itself; it’s the external shocks. There’s a lot of talk about US tariff rulings and geopolitical shifts in the Middle East that could spike the VIX (the stock market’s version of a fear index). If the VIX stays low (it's around 12.8 right now), crypto has a clear runway.
Actionable Next Steps
- Check Exchange Balances: Keep an eye on the total BTC held on exchanges. If that 1.18 million number starts climbing fast, it means people are moving coins to sell, and that 61 score will drop fast.
- Monitor the $100k Wall: There is a massive amount of "sell" orders sitting at $100,000. Expect volatility. If we break it, the index will likely skip "Greed" and go straight to "Extreme Greed" within 24 hours.
- DCA, Don't FOMO: If you're just getting back in because you saw the green needle, consider a Dollar Cost Average (DCA) approach over the next two weeks rather than a lump sum. 61 is good, but it's not "early."
- Watch the Alts: Usually, Bitcoin leads and then the money flows into Ethereum and Solana. ETH is still hovering around $3,100, looking a bit like a "frustrating middle child," as some traders call it. If BTC stabilizes at these highs, the greed will likely spill over into the rest of your portfolio.
The market is finally breathing again. Enjoy the green, but keep your stop-losses tight. Sentiment can turn on a dime, especially when $100,000 is the target on everyone's back.