Fantasy football is a game of lies we tell ourselves. Every August, we look at the guy who finished as the RB3 last year and convince ourselves he’s a lock for 18 points a game again. But honestly? The fantasy RB rankings 2025 landscape is a total mess this year, and if you're drafting like it's 2023, you're basically asking to finish in the consolation bracket.
Running back value is shifting. We’ve seen the "hero RB" builds dominate lately, but the "hero" part is getting harder to find. Christian McCaffrey is still out there doing McCaffrey things, but he's also 29 now and coming off a 2025 season where he led the league with over 400 touches. That’s a lot of mileage. Historically, backs who cross that 400-touch threshold fall off a cliff the following year.
The Tier 1 Chaos: Who is Actually Safe?
If you have a top-three pick, you’re probably staring at Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, or Saquon Barkley. Last year, Bijan finally got the "Arthur Smith is gone" boost we all prayed for. He posted 20-plus fantasy points ten times in 2025. That’s the kind of floor that wins leagues. He’s the consensus RB1 for a reason: he doesn’t just run; he’s essentially a slot receiver who starts in the backfield.
Breece Hall is the weird one. People are worried because Braelon Allen is actually good. The Jets have been splitting that backfield more than we’d like, and there’s even been those weird trade rumors floating around Hall. If Allen keeps eating 40% of the snaps, Hall’s ceiling stays capped.
Then there's Saquon. He nearly broke the rushing record in Philly last season. Playing behind that Eagles line is basically a cheat code, even if Jalen Hurts steals a few goal-line scores with the tush push.
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Breaking Down the Top 10
The middle of the first round is where things get spicy. You’ve got Jahmyr Gibbs, who is basically a walking explosive play. But remember, the Lions changed offensive coordinators. Ben Johnson is gone. Without that specific play-calling magic, can Gibbs repeat his efficiency?
- Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - The gold standard. Volume + pass-catching + youth.
- Saquon Barkley (Eagles) - High floor, but watch out for touchdown regression.
- Christian McCaffrey (49ers) - The injury risk is real, but you can’t pass on 20 PPG.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) - Pure speed, though the new coaching staff is a question mark.
- Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) - The rookie everyone is obsessed with. He’s basically a younger LaDainian Tomlinson, but the Raiders' O-line is... not great.
- Breece Hall (Jets) - Still elite, but the "bellcow" dream might be dead.
- Derrick Henry (Ravens) - The Yeti is 31. He still looks like a machine, but the clock is ticking.
- De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - He averages like 8 yards a carry, which is stupid. But he also gets hurt if a defender breathes on him too hard.
- Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) - Huge breakout potential. He’s taking over that backfield and Rachaad White is fading into the background.
- Josh Jacobs (Packers) - Boring but reliable. He’s the "safety" pick in the second round.
Why 2025 Rookie RBs are Ruining Everything
Let's talk about the kids. Ashton Jeanty landing in Las Vegas changed everything for the fantasy RB rankings 2025. Most rookies take half a season to get going, but Jeanty is built like a tank and caught 30 balls in his first year. If he was on the 49ers, he’d be the overall 1.01. On the Raiders? He’s a risky top-10 pick because that offense gets stuck in the mud.
Then you have the "league winners" nobody saw coming. Cam Skattebo with the Giants was a revelation before he got hurt. He’s a bowling ball with hands. If you’re looking for a guy to target in the middle rounds, Skattebo is the definition of a "my guy."
And don't sleep on TreVeyon Henderson in New England. Josh McDaniels finally figured out that Henderson is way more explosive than Rhamondre Stevenson. In the final weeks of 2025, Henderson was averaging nearly 6 yards a touch. He’s going to be a massive value in 2026 drafts because his season-long stats look "just okay" due to a slow start.
The "Dead Zone" Has Moved
We used to say rounds 3 through 6 were the RB Dead Zone. Now? It’s more like rounds 2 through 4. You’ve got guys like Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne who feel safe but have massive red flags.
Taylor’s upside actually went up when the Colts moved on from Anthony Richardson’s rushing dependency. If the QB isn't poaching 10 TDs a year, Taylor becomes a top-5 asset again.
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Etienne, though? Honestly, he looked slow last year. He was dealing with a hamstring issue that sapped his explosive run rate from 14% down to 10%. If he’s not healthy, he’s just a guy. I’d much rather take a swing on someone like Chase Brown in Cincinnati, who is finally getting used as a receiver.
Sleepers and Late-Round Value
If you wait on RB, you have to be smart. You aren't looking for "reliable 8 points." You're looking for "starter if an injury happens."
- Ray Davis (Bills): James Cook is the starter, but Davis is the goal-line hammer. In a high-scoring offense, that's fantasy gold.
- Jaydon Blue (Cowboys): Dallas’s backfield is a mess. Javonte Williams is there, but he’s not the same guy he was before the ACL. Blue is the most explosive back they have.
- Braelon Allen (Jets): As mentioned, he’s the "handcuff" who actually has standalone value. If Breece Hall misses a game, Allen is a top-5 play that week.
Final Strategy for 2025 Rankings
Don't overthink it. Volume is still king, but "projected volume" is a trap. Look for guys who actually create yards after contact. According to the advanced data, guys like Jeanty and Robinson are in a league of their own when it comes to forcing missed tackles.
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If you're picking at the turn, I'm almost always going WR/RB or RB/RB. The drop-off after the top 15 backs is steep. By the time you get to RB25 (guys like Joe Mixon or James Conner), you’re praying for a touchdown just to get to 10 points.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the O-line rankings: A great RB behind a bad line (like Jeanty) is a headache. A decent RB behind a great line (like Saquon) is a league winner.
- Fade the 400-touch club: Be very careful with McCaffrey. The talent is there, but the body might not be.
- Target the sophomores: Guys like Bucky Irving and TreVeyon Henderson are usually cheaper than they should be because the "casual" players still remember the veterans.