Look. Week 13 is a mess. Honestly, if you're not a little stressed right now, you aren't paying attention. It's the final stretch. The fantasy playoffs are basically breathing down our necks, and the NFL decided to drop a triple-header on Thanksgiving just to make the Thursday morning "start/sit" decisions even more of a nightmare.
I’ve been staring at these fantasy football rankings for week 13 for three hours. My coffee is cold. My brain is slightly fried. But here’s the reality: we have no bye weeks. Zero. Every single player is available, which sounds like a blessing but is actually a curse because now you have to choose between three guys who all have "good" matchups.
The Thanksgiving Gauntlet: Chiefs, Cowboys, and Chaos
The marquee game is undoubtedly the Kansas City Chiefs heading into Big D to face the Dallas Cowboys. On paper, it’s a fantasy goldmine. But have you seen how the Cowboys' defense has actually played lately? They’ve tightened up since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are sitting at 6-5 and finally playing with some desperation.
Patrick Mahomes is still the QB1 for most people this week, and honestly, you're starting him. Don't overthink it. But the real story is the return of Joe Burrow. He’s been out for two months with that turf toe injury, and he’s expected to suit up against the Ravens on Thanksgiving night.
Is he 100%? No way. Coach Zac Taylor basically admitted Burrow will be living in the shotgun to avoid putting stress on that big toe. If you have a safer option like Jayden Daniels or even a surging Bo Nix, I’d almost suggest sitting the "cool Joe" one more week. Turf toe is a nightmare for mobility.
Quarterbacks: The Safe, The Scary, and The Stupid
- Josh Allen (at Steelers): He’s the undisputed king. Even against a tough Pittsburgh front, Allen’s rushing floor makes him the safest play in the league.
- Jalen Hurts (at Bears): Friday football! Hurts is coming off a weird game where the Eagles blew a 21-point lead to Dallas, but his Tush Push (or Brotherly Shove, whatever we're calling it this year) remains the most reliable goal-line play in sports.
- Drake Maye (vs. Giants): Yeah, I said it. Maye has been a revelation for the Patriots. Facing a Giants team that looks like it’s already scouting for the draft? Sign me up.
- Bo Nix (at Commanders): The Commanders' secondary is... well, it’s there. Physically. Nix has been accurate enough to be a top-10 play this week.
Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey and the Rest of Us
Christian McCaffrey is currently the RB1 in almost every set of fantasy football rankings for week 13. He’s heading to Cleveland to face a Browns defense that has been a bit of a sieve lately. If you have him, you’re happy. If you’re playing against him, I’m sorry.
But let’s talk about the injuries. Alvin Kamara is likely out with a sprained MCL. That is massive. You’re looking at Devin Neal getting a huge bump in Miami. If Neal is on your wire (unlikely) or your bench, he’s a locked-in RB2 with RB1 upside just based on volume alone.
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Then there's the Josh Jacobs situation in Green Bay. He’s dealing with a knee injury but looks on track to play against the Lions on Thursday. It’s a 1:00 PM ET kickoff. You have to decide early. If he’s active, you play him, but expect a lot of Emmanuel Wilson spelling him if the game gets out of hand.
Why You Shouldn't Chase Last Week's Points
I see people salivating over Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I get it. He’s the WR1 for many this week. The Seahawks are playing the Vikings, and JSN has become the focal point of that offense. But Minnesota’s Brian Flores loves to blitz. If Geno Smith doesn't have time to breathe, those deep routes aren't developing.
I’m actually leaning more toward Puka Nacua and Davante Adams for the Rams. They get the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are the "get right" game of the NFL. Matthew Stafford is probably going to throw for 300 yards and three scores before the fourth quarter even starts.
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The Tight End Wasteland
Honestly, it’s Trey McBride and then a whole lot of "maybe." McBride is at the Buccaneers, and he’s basically a target monster. After him, you’re looking at Tyler Warren for the Colts or Brock Bowers.
Speaking of Bowers, the Raiders just fired Chip Kelly. Usually, a coaching change leads to a "dead cat bounce" for the offense. I expect the Raiders to force-feed Bowers against the Chargers just to show they can still move the ball. He’s a top-3 play for me this week, regardless of what the "experts" say.
Some Guys You're Probably Starting But Shouldn't
- Justin Jefferson: I know, I know. "Never sit your stars." But Max Brosmer is likely under center for the Vikings. Jefferson is the best in the world, but if the ball is uncatchable, it doesn't matter. He's more of a WR2 this week.
- Breece Hall: The Jets are playing the Falcons. Breece has been okay, but the Jets' offensive line is currently a revolving door. He’ll get his PPR points, but don't expect a 25-point explosion.
- Terry McLaurin: Facing Bo Nix and the Broncos. Pat Surtain II is going to be draped all over him. It’s a "low ceiling" kind of week for Scary Terry.
The DST Stream of the Week
If you didn’t stash a defense, look at the Patriots. They’re at home against the Giants. New York is turning the ball over at an alarming rate, and the Foxborough weather in late November is never fun for a struggling offense. They’re likely sitting on your waiver wire and could easily be the #1 unit this week.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Roster
Stop over-analyzing the Thanksgiving games. If you have a starter playing on Thursday, put them in their specific position slot (RB or WR), not your Flex. You want that Flex spot open for Sunday in case someone trips over their dog on Saturday morning and ends up on the injury report.
Check the weather for the Buffalo-Pittsburgh game. Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh can get ugly. If it’s a monsoon, James Cook becomes a top-5 play, and the passing games take a massive hit.
Finally, keep an eye on the "active/inactive" list for the 1:00 PM ET Thursday game. If Josh Jacobs is a surprise scratch, AJ Dillon or Emmanuel Wilson become must-starts in a high-scoring game. Don't be the person who wakes up at noon on Thanksgiving to find their RB1 is on the bench.
Go win your week.