Fantasy football changes fast. One minute you’re riding high with a dual-threat superstar, and the next, a torn ACL or a coaching change has your roster looking like a disaster zone. If you spent 2025 chasing the "safe" pocket passers, you probably felt the sting. Matthew Stafford actually led the league in passing yards ($4,707$) and touchdowns ($46$), which is wild for a guy many wrote off as a late-round flyer. But as we look toward 2026, the logic behind fantasy football qb tiers is shifting again.
It’s not just about who throws the most. It's about who survives the carnage.
The "Death Tax" Tier: Elite QBs You Have to Pay For
Josh Allen is still the king. Period. He finished 2025 as the QB1 overall with $425.3$ fantasy points, and honestly, it wasn’t that close. He’s the only player who gives you $25$ passing touchdowns and $14$ rushing touchdowns in the same breath. You draft him in the second or third round because you’re buying peace of mind.
Then there’s Drake Maye. Yeah, you read that right. The kid exploded in New England, finishing as the QB3 overall with over $4,100$ passing yards and a surprising $450$ on the ground. He’s the new prototype. If you aren't putting him in the same tier as Allen or Jalen Hurts, you're living in the past.
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Hurts is a tricky one, though. He had $8$ rushing scores in 2025, but the "Brotherly Shove" felt less automatic than years prior. He’s still elite, but the gap between him and the field is shrinking.
Why Lamar Jackson is a Massive Question Mark
Lamar is the ultimate "high-risk, high-reward" headache right now. He was a fantasy disappointment for much of 2025, missing four games and finishing with only $21$ passing touchdowns. The Ravens are potentially looking at a coaching overhaul, and that's scary for a guy whose value is so tied to a specific scheme.
- Josh Allen: The undisputed floor.
- Drake Maye: The new-age ceiling.
- Jalen Hurts: Still great, but keep an eye on Philly’s new OC.
- Lamar Jackson: Buy the dip, but bring a backup.
The "Efficiency Trap" Tier
This is where people lose their leagues. You see a name like Joe Burrow or C.J. Stroud and think "elite." But look at the 2025 numbers. Burrow only played 8 games due to injury. Stroud finished with $19$ touchdowns and only $209$ rushing yards. In standard 4-point passing TD leagues, these guys are "Tier 2" because they don't run.
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Patrick Mahomes is also in this weird limbo. He was having a great bounce-back year until he tore his ACL and LCL late in the season. He's expected to be back for Week 1 of 2026, but will he still scramble? His rushing floor ($422$ yards in 2025) is what kept him afloat. If that disappears during rehab, he’s just a very expensive Kirk Cousins.
The Breakout and The Resurrection
The 2025 season gave us two massive surprises: Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford.
Lawrence finally looked like the "Generational Talent" we were promised, finishing as the QB4. He’s figured out how to use his legs in the red zone ($9$ rushing TDs). Meanwhile, Stafford turned back the clock with $46$ touchdowns. If the Rams keep Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy, Stafford is the ultimate "wait-on-QB" target. He’s boring, but $4,700$ yards is anything but boring for your scoreboard.
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Don't sleep on Bo Nix either. He finished as the QB8 as a rookie. Sean Payton has him playing point guard, and his $356$ rushing yards were a nice cherry on top. He’s basically the budget version of what we hoped Anthony Richardson would be.
Deep Sleepers and 2026 Rookie Hype
If you're in a dynasty league or a superflex format, the name to know is Fernando Mendoza. The Indiana QB just won the Heisman and is likely the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. He’s $6'5"$, throws with $73%$ accuracy, and has that "pro-ready" tag that scouts love.
On the veteran side, Malik Willis is the "Mystery Box." He showed flashes late in the season, and if he lands a starting job in 2026, his rushing upside is top-5 caliber. He's the guy you grab in the last round just to see what happens.
Practical Strategy for 2026 Drafts
- Prioritize the "Big Three": If you can't get Allen, Maye, or a healthy Hurts, don't reach.
- The "Stafford" Pivot: If the elite tier is gone, wait until the double-digit rounds and grab a high-volume passer like Stafford or Jared Goff (who had $4,564$ yards in 2025).
- Draft for Rushing: In the modern game, a QB who doesn't get you $300+$ rushing yards is starting the week at a $5$ to $10$ point disadvantage.
The biggest mistake you can make is drafting based on 2024 name recognition. The league moved on. Drake Maye and Bo Nix are the reality now. If you're still drafting Aaron Rodgers or Tua Tagovailoa as your primary starter, you're playing for third place. Focus on the guys who can create something when the play breaks down, because as 2025 showed us, the play breaks down a lot.
Go check your dynasty rosters for Malik Willis or Daniel Jones—who looked decent in Indy before his injury—and see if you can snag them for a late-round pick while their value is depressed. That’s how you win.