Fangraphs Win Projections 2025: What Most People Get Wrong

You've probably seen the numbers by now. The 2025 MLB season wrapped up with the Blue Jays and Dodgers essentially in a dead heat, and Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system—the crystal ball we all love to yell at—is already recalibrating for 2026. But looking back at the fangraphs win projections 2025, it’s clear that "predicting" baseball is mostly an exercise in managed chaos.

People treat these projections like a promise. They aren't. They’re a median. If a system says the Phillies are going to win 96 games (which they basically did), it’s not saying they can't win 105 or crater to 80. It’s saying that in a thousand parallel universes, 96 is the average of the pile.

Honestly, the 2025 preseason was a bloodbath for the "common sense" crowd. Remember when the Red Sox were a 51% playoff lock according to FanGraphs, while PECOTA had them at a measly 13%? That 37-point gap was the largest in the industry. FanGraphs bet on the talent floor; the other guys bet on the vibes and the brutal AL East. Turns out, the computer at FanGraphs liked the Sox's underlying metrics more than the pundits did, and for much of the year, that faith actually looked pretty smart.

Why the Computers Loved the 2025 Blue Jays

The biggest shocker of the fangraphs win projections 2025 cycle was Toronto. By the time the dust settled, the Blue Jays had 94 wins, matching the Yankees for the best record in the American League. If you had told a Jays fan in 2024 that they’d be neck-and-neck with a 94-win Dodger team in the World Series, they would’ve asked what you were smoking.

ZiPS and Steamer (the two main engines behind FanGraphs' depth charts) don't care about "momentum" or "clubhouse chemistry." They care about exit velocity and age curves.

The projections saw a roster that was underperforming its peripheral data. In Toronto's case, the 2025 jump was fueled by a return to mean for their core hitters. But even then, ZiPS was actually considered "too negative" by some when it initially forecast 98 wins for the Dodgers. People thought the Dodgers were a 110-win juggernaut. Instead, they "only" won 93. Why? Because the projections account for the fact that even superstars get hurt. In fact, the Dodgers ended up losing the third-most potential wins to injury in the majors in 2025. The computer knew the risk was there even if we didn't want to admit it.

The Volatility of the Bullpen and the $8 Million Win

One of the coolest—and most frustrating—parts of following these projections is how they handle relief pitchers. Every January, we watch teams give $20 million to a 38-year-old reliever and we think, "That's insane."

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FanGraphs’ analysts like Jake Mailhot and Dan Szymborski have spent a lot of time lately explaining that teams have moved past "dollars per win" for relievers. In the 2025-26 offseason market, a projected win for a starter cost about $8 million. But for a closer? The math breaks. Teams are paying for "Championship Win Probability Added."

Basically, the 2025 projections struggled with the Guardians because Cleveland’s bullpen is a statistical outlier. If you rely on your bullpen to win close games, you’re basically playing Russian Roulette with a projection system. The system assumes your relievers will be "average" eventually. Cleveland just refuses to be average.

Surprising Gaps: FanGraphs vs. PECOTA

There were some massive disagreements heading into the 2025 season that shaped the betting markets.

• The Orioles Problem: PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus) had the O’s at a 75.6% playoff chance. FanGraphs was much more skeptical at 44%.
• The Cubs Gap: FanGraphs saw the NL Central as a dogfight, with only three games separating the Cubs and Brewers. PECOTA predicted a 10-game blowout.
• The Mets Factor: Neither system picked the Mets to win the NL East, even after they brought back Pete Alonso and signed Juan Soto. The Phillies were just too deep on paper.

The Phillies ended up being the statistical darlings of 2025. They were projected for 96 wins and actually delivered. It's rare to see the "ceiling" projection hit so perfectly, but their rotation stayed healthy, which is the one variable no algorithm can truly pin down.

How to Actually Use These Projections

If you’re looking at fangraphs win projections 2025 results to prepare for your 2026 fantasy draft or your sportsbook account, stop looking at the win-loss record. Look at the "Rest of Season" (ROS) percentages and the Depth Chart changes.

ZiPS now includes spring training data, but it’s weighted lightly. It’s meant to catch guys like Spencer Schwellenbach or Jac Caglianone—young players whose "true talent" level might be shifting faster than a standard three-year aging curve can track.

Baseball is a game of "coin flips," as the FanGraphs crew often says. The Dodgers had a 66% chance of winning the World Series according to the projections. That still means they lose 34 times out of 100. If you can't handle those 34 losses, you're not reading the data right.

Actionable Insights for the Savvy Fan

• Ignore April Standings: Projections take about 60 games to really "react" to new reality. If a team is 10 games over their projection in May, they’re usually just lucky, not "better than the computer."
• Watch the Floor, Not the Ceiling: The best teams (like the 2025 Dodgers) aren't projected high because they might win 110 games; they’re projected high because their "worst-case scenario" is still 85 wins.
• Reliever Volatility: Never bet on a team whose win projection is heavily dependent on three high-leverage relievers. One elbow tweak and 5 projected wins vanish instantly.
• Check the Depth Charts: The "secret sauce" of FanGraphs is the playing time estimates. If the system projects a star for 600 plate appearances and he only gets 400, the win projection will be "wrong" through no fault of the math.

The biggest takeaway from the 2025 cycle? Trust the process, but embrace the variance. The Blue Jays and Yankees tied at 94 wins because the AL East is a meat grinder that defies logic. The computer saw the talent; it just couldn't see the drama.

Keep an eye on the updated 2026 ZiPS runs as they drop throughout the current spring training. You can find the live-updating leaderboards on the FanGraphs standings page, which will now start incorporating 2026 Steamer projections as the primary baseline for the upcoming season.