If you turned off the Falcons vs Tampa Bay game on December 11, 2025, when the Buccaneers were up 28-14 in the fourth quarter, honestly, nobody would've blamed you. It looked over. Done. The Bucs were cruising toward another divisional crown, and Atlanta looked like they were stuck in a repeating nightmare.
Then Kirk Cousins happened.
What we saw in the 2025-2026 season wasn't just another chapter in a long-standing rivalry; it was a total breakdown of expectations. This series, often called the I-75 rivalry because the two cities are basically straight shots down the interstate from each other, has always been streaky. But 2025 was special. It was a season where the NFC South became a three-way car crash of 8-9 records, and the Falcons vs Tampa Bay games were the epicenter of that chaos.
The Thursday Night Stunner That Ruined Tampa's Season
You can't talk about this rivalry right now without mentioning that Week 15 disaster at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay entered the game with a chance to basically lock up the division. Baker Mayfield was playing like a legitimate MVP candidate for most of the fall. He’d just gotten Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back from injury. It felt like the old guard was about to put the young Falcons in their place.
Everything went sideways in the final twelve minutes.
Trailing by 14, Kirk Cousins—who was only starting because rookie Michael Penix Jr. was sidelined—orchestrated a comeback that left Todd Bowles visibly fuming at the podium later. The most "inexcusable" moment, to use Bowles’ own word, was a 3rd-and-28. Think about that for a second. 3rd-and-28 with about a minute left, and the Buccaneers' defense let the Falcons convert a 14-yard pass to Kyle Pitts and then a 4th-and-14 dart to David Sills.
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Zane Gonzalez eventually trotted out and drilled a 45-yarder as time expired. 29-28, Falcons.
It was a heist. Pure and simple.
Head-to-Head: A Rivalry That Refuses to Settle
Before that December miracle, the Buccaneers actually took the first meeting of 2025. Back in Week 1, Michael Penix Jr. made his debut in a 23-20 loss at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It’s funny how the season bookended itself. In September, Mayfield threw three touchdowns and looked like the king of the South. By December, the script flipped entirely.
Historically, this thing is a dead heat. After the 2025 season, the Falcons technically lead the all-time regular-season series 33-32.
- Total Meetings: 65
- Most Recent Result: Falcons 29, Buccaneers 28 (Dec 11, 2025)
- Current Streak: Falcons (1 win)
The weirdest part of this rivalry? They’ve never met in the playoffs. Not once since the Bucs joined the NFC South in 2002. They just spend every year beating the life out of each other in the regular season until neither team has enough gas left for a deep January run.
Raheem Morris and the Two-Point Obsession
We have to talk about Raheem Morris. The guy used to coach the Bucs, so there’s always extra spice when he faces them. But in that Week 15 win, he almost coached himself into a loss with some bizarre "analytics-driven" decisions.
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After a fourth-quarter touchdown brought Atlanta within eight points, Morris decided to go for two instead of taking the easy extra point. It failed. Then they scored again and had to go for two again just to try and tie it. That also failed.
If they hadn't gotten that miraculous defensive stop and the final field goal, Morris would have been the most hated man in Georgia. He explained later that he wanted to "walk off" with an extra point on the final score rather than just tying it. It's that kind of aggressive, high-stakes coaching that defines the modern Falcons vs Tampa Bay matchups. It’s stressful. It’s often ugly. But it’s never boring.
The Kyle Pitts Enigma Finally Cracked?
For years, fantasy football managers and Falcons fans have been waiting for Kyle Pitts to become the "unicorn" he was promised to be. Against Tampa Bay in December 2025, he finally looked like it.
He caught 11 passes for 166 yards and three touchdowns.
Tampa simply had no answer. Antoine Winfield Jr. is arguably the best safety in the league, and even he was getting Mossed by Pitts in the red zone. If you look at the stats from the two 2025 meetings, the tight end position was the deciding factor. In the first game, the Bucs won because Atlanta couldn't find Pitts in the seam. In the second, Pitts basically carried the offense on his back.
Why 8-9 Felt Like a Failure for Both
By the time January 2026 rolled around, the NFC South was the laughingstock of the NFL again. Every single team—the Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons—finished 8-9.
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The Panthers took the division title because of tiebreakers (they went 3-1 against the Bucs and Falcons). Because Atlanta beat Tampa in that wild Thursday night game, they actually helped hand the division to Carolina. It’s a bitter pill for Bucs fans to swallow. They were 6-2 at one point! They had an MVP-caliber quarterback and a veteran defense.
Losing seven of your last nine games is a collapse of epic proportions. And most of the "what-ifs" for Tampa Bay fans start with that 3rd-and-28 against Atlanta.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're looking ahead to the next time these two meet, keep a few things in mind. First, the "home-field advantage" in this rivalry is basically non-existent; the road team won both matchups in 2025. Second, watch the injury reports for Mike Evans. He remains the barometer for the Bucs offense—when he's healthy and clicking, Tampa is almost impossible to stop in the red zone.
Next Steps for Fans and Analysts:
- Monitor the Falcons QB Situation: With Penix and Cousins both showing they can win (or nearly win) against this defense, the 2026 training camp battle will be pivotal.
- Watch the Bucs Secondary Refined: Todd Bowles is notorious for defensive adjustments. Expect a complete overhaul of their "prevent" packages after the Week 15 late-game collapse.
- Check the 2026 Schedule: The Bucs are already locked into playing the Cowboys and Rams in 2026 due to their second-place finish, while the Falcons' third-place finish gives them a slightly different strength of schedule.
The rivalry is currently as balanced as it's ever been. One point separated them over two games in 2025. Don't expect 2026 to be any less stressful.