If you’ve spent any time driving down to the tip of South Texas lately, you’ve probably seen it. Or rather, you’ve seen what’s missing. Falcon Reservoir, that massive liquid border between the U.S. and Mexico, is looking pretty rough. Honestly, "rough" might be an understatement. When you stand on the banks near Zapata, the water is so far back it feels like the lake is trying to hide from the sun.
As of January 13, 2026, the Falcon Reservoir water level is sitting at roughly 255.94 feet.
To put that in perspective, a "full" lake—what the experts call the conservation pool—is 301.2 feet. We are currently more than 45 feet below where we should be. The lake is only about 18.1% full.
It’s a ghost of its former self.
Why the water level is a moving target
You can’t talk about Falcon without talking about the 1944 Water Treaty. It's basically a messy international prenup. Mexico is supposed to deliver a certain amount of water from its tributaries into the Rio Grande, and in exchange, the U.S. shares water from the Colorado River. But life isn't always fair, and the weather definitely isn't.
Mexico has been behind on these deliveries for years. In fact, they often end up in a "deficit" that they have to scramble to pay back by the end of five-year cycles. When the rain doesn't fall in the Mexican mountains, the taps stay closed.
This isn't just about a lack of rain in Texas. It's about a lack of rain hundreds of miles away, combined with political tension that has local farmers in the Rio Grande Valley losing sleep.
The "Hidden" history rising from the mud
One of the weirdest things about low water levels at Falcon is what comes back to life. When the lake drops this low, you start seeing the ruins of Guerrero Viejo.
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It’s an old Mexican town that was intentionally flooded back in the 50s when the dam was built. When the water retreats, the old church—the Nuestra Señora del Refugio—starts poking its head out. It's beautiful and eerie. You’ve got this 18th-century sandstone architecture just sitting there in the silt.
But there's a dark side to this "reappearance."
Looters are a massive problem. Every time the water drops, people go out with metal detectors and shovels, digging up artifacts that have been underwater for 70 years. It’s actually illegal, but with a lake this big, it’s almost impossible to police.
Agriculture is taking the biggest hit
If you live in McAllen or Brownsville, you might just notice your water bill going up. But if you’re a farmer in the Valley, you’re looking at a catastrophe.
Basically, the Rio Grande Valley is one of the most productive agricultural spots in the country. We’re talking citrus, onions, cotton, and sugarcane. These crops are thirsty. Without releases from Falcon, irrigation districts start running dry.
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Some farmers have already started "plowing under" their crops. That's a fancy way of saying they give up and destroy the plants because they know they won't have enough water to get them to harvest. It's heartbreaking to watch.
Fishing: It’s not all bad news (yet)
You’d think a drying lake would mean the end of the legendary bass fishing at Falcon. Surprisingly, it’s more complicated than that.
When the water level drops, the fish get "pushed" into smaller areas. They become more concentrated. If you know where the old creek channels are, you can actually have some of the best fishing of your life.
However, the long-term outlook is sketchy.
- Low water means less oxygen.
- High temperatures in shallow water can lead to "fish kills."
- Access is the biggest hurdle; most of the boat ramps are currently high and dry.
If you’re planning a trip, you better bring a 4WD vehicle and be prepared to launch from the dirt.
What the future looks like
Is Falcon going to dry up completely? Probably not. It’s too vital for the millions of people who live downstream. But the "new normal" for the Falcon Reservoir water level seems to be these extreme fluctuations.
The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) is constantly negotiating with Mexico to get those water releases moving. But until a major hurricane or tropical storm parks itself over the Rio Grande basin, we're likely going to be staring at a lot of mud for the foreseeable future.
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Actionable Steps for Locals and Visitors:
- Check the Gauge Daily: Don't rely on old data. Use the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) site or the IBWC's real-time gauges before you head out.
- Conservation is Real: If you’re in a South Texas municipality, pay attention to Stage 2 or Stage 3 water restrictions. They aren't suggestions; they're designed to keep the "dead pool" from becoming a reality.
- Boat Ramp Logistics: Check with Falcon State Park directly. They know which areas are still deep enough to get a trailer into the water without getting stuck in the silt.
- Support Local Ag: Prices for Valley produce might spike. Understanding that this is a direct result of the water crisis helps contextualize why those Rio Grande grapefruit cost a little more this season.
The situation at Falcon is a stark reminder that in the desert, water isn't just a resource—it's the only currency that matters.