Honestly, if you've lived in Northern Virginia long enough, you know the drill. You wake up, check the window, and basically play a game of "Will I need an ice scraper or a rain jacket?" It’s January 18, 2026, and Fairfax is currently doing that thing where it can't quite decide how miserable it wants to be.
Right now, we’re sitting at a crisp 37°F. That sounds manageable until you realize the wind is coming out of the north at 9 mph, making it feel more like 30°F. You’ve probably noticed the clouds have been hanging heavy all morning. It’s that classic gray DMV sky that feels like a weighted blanket you didn't ask for.
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The Real Deal on Today's Snow
Let's talk about the white stuff. There’s been a lot of chatter about a "coastal threat," but the reality for Fairfax today is a bit more... slushy. We have a Winter Weather Advisory active until 6:00 PM this evening.
The first thing you need to know is that while the current precipitation chance is only 10%, that's a bit of a tease. The daily forecast shows a 100% chance of snow during the daytime. We’re looking at a high of 38°F, which is just warm enough to keep things messy. Expect light snow to pick up, potentially mixing with rain at times, before the system clears out.
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Most local models are calling for maybe 1 to 2 inches of accumulation. It's not "shut down the government" snow, but it’s definitely "don't trust the George Mason University hills" snow.
Why Tonight is the Real Problem
While everyone is watching the flakes fall this afternoon, the real headache starts when the sun goes down. Once the precipitation stops, the sky is going to clear out, and the temperature is going to crater.
We’re looking at a low of 22°F tonight.
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Think about all that slush and melted snow on the roads from this afternoon. It’s going to freeze solid. If you’re heading out early for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday tomorrow, watch out for black ice. The wind is shifting to the west, and while it stays light, that 15-degree drop from day to night is going to be the main story.
Looking Ahead: A Rollercoaster Week
If you’re planning your week, don't get too comfortable with the cold. Fairfax is about to experience some serious mood swings.
- Monday (MLK Day): Sunny and actually quite nice for January. We’ll hit 38°F or 40°F, though the wind will kick up with gusts near 23 mph. It’s a great day for a brisk walk, just keep the hat on.
- Tuesday: The bottom drops out. We’re talking a high of only 28°F and a low of 15°F. This is the coldest stretch of the month so far.
- The Mid-Week Thaw: By Wednesday and Thursday, we’re back into the 40s. It’s a "nickel-and-dime" winter, as some of the long-range forecasters like to call it—we get hit with a quick burst of cold, then it softens up.
The Bigger Picture: Drought and Snow
There’s some nuance here that most weather apps miss. Fairfax County has actually been under a drought warning recently. This winter has been surprisingly dry, despite a couple of early snow events in December. While the snow today is a nuisance for driving, we actually need the moisture.
The current "stagnant ridge" in the Southwest and a weak La Niña have been keeping us in a pattern where we see more mixed precipitation than actual heavy snow. We aren't in a "blockbuster storm" cycle right now. Instead, we’re getting these frequent, smaller events that slowly build up the snowpack (and the salt on your car).
What You Should Actually Do
- Check the salt: If you haven't put down ice melt on your driveway yet, do it before 4:00 PM today. Once that 22°F low hits tonight, your driveway will be a skating rink.
- Monitor the wind: Tomorrow’s gusts could reach 23 mph. If you still have holiday decorations out (no judgment, it's only mid-January), make sure they're secured.
- Watch the "Feels Like": Don't just look at the 37°F on your phone. With the humidity at 60-70% and the north wind, it’s going to feel significantly rawer than the number suggests.
Basically, today is a day for staying in, making a pot of chili, and watching the flurries from the couch. The roads will be okay for most of the afternoon, but once that freeze hits tonight, all bets are off. Stay safe out there, Fairfax.
Next Steps for Your Monday:
If you're planning to commute tomorrow, check the VDOT Virginia 511 map around 6:00 AM. Even with a sunny forecast for Monday, the overnight freeze of today's 100% snow chance is the most likely culprit for any morning delays.