If you stepped outside in Tampa this morning, you probably felt that sharp, northwesterly sting. It’s not the usual "Florida winter" where you just swap your flip-flops for loafers. No, today, January 15, 2026, we’re looking at a high of only 58°F.
And tonight? It’s going down to 36°F.
Honestly, for a city that brags about 70-degree winters, this is a bit of a reality check. Everyone is looking at the extended weather forecast tampa trying to figure out if they need to keep the space heaters out or if they can finally plan that beach day at Clearwater.
The Near-Term Polar Punch
We’re currently caught in the grip of a significant Arctic surge. Ryan Shoptaugh and other local meteorologists have been tracking this deepening low-pressure system that’s basically acting like a vacuum, sucking polar air straight down into the Sunshine State.
The wind is the real kicker today. Northwest winds at 18 mph are making that 58 degrees feel a lot more like 48. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know the drill: protect the tropicals. Your hibiscus and crotons aren't going to love that 36-degree low tonight.
What the next week looks like
The good news is that Florida weather is nothing if not moody. We aren't staying in the freezer forever.
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- Friday, Jan 16: Sunny but still crisp. Highs stay at 58°F, lows again hovering near 36°F. It’s a carbon copy of today, just with less wind.
- Saturday, Jan 17: This is where the "thaw" starts. We’ll jump up to 69°F. It’ll feel like a different season entirely compared to Friday morning.
- Sunday, Jan 18: A bit of a setback. Expect clouds and a high of only 57°F. There’s a slight 20% chance of rain, but nothing that’s going to wash out your plans—just keep a light jacket handy.
Monday and Tuesday (Jan 19-20) look to stay in that mid-to-high 50s range. It’s definitely "sweater weather" for the locals, though tourists from Ohio will probably still be in shorts.
Looking Further Out: The 14-Day Outlook
If you’re trying to plan for the rest of January, things get interesting toward the end of next week. Around Friday, January 23, we’re expecting a massive swing. Temperatures are forecast to climb all the way to 75°F.
But there’s a catch.
That warmth is coming with moisture. We’re looking at a 75% chance of rain on that Friday. It looks like a classic pre-frontal setup where the humidity spikes, the sky turns that weird gray-green, and we get some actual downpours.
By Saturday, January 24, we might even hit 78°F. That’s the Tampa we know and love. The humidity will be back up to 81%, so expect that "heavy" air feeling.
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The Big Picture for January 2026
Looking at the data from the Old Farmer’s Almanac and recent climate trends, this January is actually trending about 3 degrees below average. Usually, we expect highs around 71°F, but the Polar Vortex has been a bit "leaky" this year, sending those cold ripples further south than usual.
We’re also seeing a drier-than-normal month. Aside from that expected rain on the 23rd, total precipitation is likely to finish an inch or so below the 2.5-inch average.
Why the "Extended" Part is Hard to Nail
Let's talk about the elephant in the room: meteorologists aren't psychics.
Extended weather forecast tampa models start to get "fuzzy" after about seven days. Why? Because Tampa is a peninsula on a peninsula. We have the Gulf of Mexico on one side and the Atlantic on the other. A tiny shift in the jet stream can mean the difference between a sunny 75-degree afternoon and a drizzly, miserable 60-degree day.
Currently, we are keeping a close eye on the stratospheric winds. When the Polar Vortex weakens, it allows that cold air to spill out of the Arctic like a broken dam. That’s exactly what’s happening right now.
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How to prepare for the fluctuations
- Water your plants now. Moist soil stays warmer than dry soil. It sounds counterintuitive, but a well-hydrated plant can survive a light freeze much better than a thirsty one.
- Check your tires. Cold air makes tire pressure drop (the old $PV=nRT$ ideal gas law in action). If your "low air" light came on this morning, it's probably just the temperature drop.
- Layers, layers, layers. You’ll start the day in a parka and end it in a t-shirt by next Saturday.
Final Thoughts on the Tampa Outlook
Don't let the 30s tonight scare you off. By the time we hit the last week of January (Jan 26-31), the models are showing a return to the mid-70s and even low 80s. The "Deep Freeze" of 2026 is likely a short-lived event.
Honestly, enjoy the cold while it lasts. In four months, we’ll all be complaining about the 95-degree heat and the 100% humidity.
To stay ahead of the weather, make sure you're checking the local radar around the 23rd, as that looks like our next big rain event. Keep the frost blankets ready for one more night, then you can probably tuck them back in the garage.
Actionable Next Steps: * Move sensitive potted plants indoors or under a covered patio before sunset today.
- Plan outdoor events for the weekend of Jan 24-25, but have a "Plan B" for Friday's expected rain.
- Monitor local NWS updates if you're out on the water, as northwest winds will keep the Gulf quite choppy through Friday.