If you stepped outside in Tulsa this morning, you probably felt that weird, unseasonable warmth. It's January 13, 2026, and the thermometer is pushing toward 70 degrees. That is not normal. Usually, we’re huddled in coats praying for the wind to stop whipping off the Arkansas River, but here we are. This isn’t just a random nice day; it’s part of a larger, somewhat chaotic pattern.
The extended weather forecast for Tulsa Oklahoma looks like a roller coaster designed by someone who can't make up their mind. We are currently caught between a lingering, weak La Niña and a rapid shift toward "neutral" conditions. Basically, the Pacific Ocean is cooling off on its tantrums, and Tulsa is getting the leftovers.
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What is happening with the Tulsa 10-day outlook?
Right now, we are enjoying—or maybe fearing—record-breaking warmth. Just yesterday, several tornadoes touched down across Oklahoma and Kansas. In January. That’s wild. The National Weather Service in Tulsa actually had to issue warnings during the morning commute. It's a stark reminder that in the Sooner State, "winter" is a loose suggestion, not a rule.
If you’re looking at the immediate 10-day stretch, prepare for a slap in the face.
Tomorrow, Wednesday the 14th, a cold front is going to slice through Green Country. We’ll go from today’s 70 degrees down to a high of 50, with overnight lows tanking into the mid-20s. It’s a dry front, though. Don't expect a winter wonderland. Instead, expect gusty north winds that make your face sting.
The mid-month reality check
The rest of the week stays pretty quiet but chilly.
- Thursday: Sunny, high of 53.
- Friday: Mostly clear, high of 52.
- The Weekend: A second "reinforcing shot" of Canadian air arrives Saturday. This one actually looks colder. We might see some flurries Saturday night, but the moisture is so thin it probably won't even cover the grass.
Honestly, the main concern for the next few days isn't snow; it's fire. With these warm temperatures and gusty southwest winds hitting dry dormant grass, the Oklahoma Mesonet is flagging elevated fire weather concerns, especially west of Highway 75.
Beyond the week: February 2026 and the La Niña exit
Looking further out into the extended weather forecast for Tulsa Oklahoma, the signals get messy. Most climate models, including the CFS version 2, are leaning toward a transition. By February, that weak La Niña that’s been keeping us dry and occasionally "tornado-y" should be history.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac and several NOAA outlooks suggest February will actually be warmer than average. We’re talking a mean temperature around 54 degrees, which is about 3 degrees above our usual baseline. But "warmer than average" in an Oklahoma February doesn't mean no ice. It usually just means the cold snaps are shorter.
Expect a very cold start to February, followed by a warm-up in the second week. There’s a signal for significant rain toward the end of next month. Since we've been leaning dry lately, the garden might actually appreciate that, even if your car doesn't.
Why does the weather keep swinging like this?
It’s all about the jet stream. When we’re in this "progressive pattern," the air is moving fast. Ridges of high pressure from the Pacific Coast are fighting with deep troughs over the Eastern US. Tulsa just happens to be the battlefield.
One day we have "downslope flow" coming off the Rockies that heats us up through compression. The next day, the "gate" opens from the North Pole and drops a 20-degree high on us. It’s exhausting.
Practical steps for Tulsans this winter
Since the extended weather forecast for Tulsa Oklahoma isn't showing a massive, city-halting blizzard anytime soon, your focus should be on the smaller nuisances.
First, check your tire pressure. These 40-degree temperature swings in 24 hours will make your "low pressure" light pop on faster than a lightning strike. It’s just physics.
Second, keep the winter gear in the car. Even if it’s 70 when you leave for work, that Saturday front is bringing lows in the 20s. If you break down on the Creek Turnpike in a t-shirt, you're going to have a very bad time.
Third, stay weather-aware. The tornadoes on January 12th proved that the old "it's too cold for storms" myth is dead. If the humidity feels weirdly high for winter, keep an eye on the radar.
Lastly, watch the fire tallies. Until we get a solid, multi-day soaking rain in late February, our tall grass is basically tinder. Be careful with outdoor burning or even flicking cigarettes.
Tulsa winters are rarely boring, and 2026 is living up to that reputation. Keep your sunglasses and your heavy coat within arm's reach. You'll likely need both before the week is out.