San Francisco is acting a bit strange right now. Honestly, if you walked outside this morning, you probably felt that weird, crisp northeast breeze hitting your face. It’s 58°F currently, and while the "mostly cloudy" label is technically true, the city feels like it’s holding its breath for something bigger.
You’ve probably heard the rumors. People are talking about a massive shift in the Pacific, and they aren't totally wrong.
What Most People Get Wrong About January in the City
The current extended weather forecast for San Francisco California shows we are stuck in a bit of a "rinse and repeat" cycle for a few more days. Today, Saturday, January 17, 2026, we’re looking at a high of 60°F and a low of 49°F. It’s cloudy, sure, but that 10% chance of rain is basically just a polite way of saying "don't wash your car yet."
Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, is a near-carbon copy. Same 60°F high. Same 49°F low. The only real difference is we might see a bit more sun peeking through the "partly sunny" layers during the day.
But here is where it gets interesting.
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The Dry Spell and the "First Domino"
Monday, January 19, is actually looking like the winner of the week. We’re hitting 60°F again, but with full sun and clear skies at night. If you’ve been waiting to do the Land's End hike without getting mud on your boots, Monday is your window.
Starting Tuesday, January 20, things start to cool down. We drop to a high of 58°F, and by Friday, January 23, we’re looking at 55°F. That might not sound like much of a drop, but with the humidity hovering around 88%, that damp cold is going to bite a lot harder than the numbers suggest.
The Big Shift: Is the Rain Actually Coming?
Meteorologists are looking at a "short wave trough" that might pass through around Thursday or Friday. Honestly, it’s looking more like a "cloud maker" than a real rain event. But National Weather Service experts are calling it the "first domino."
The real action happens after next weekend.
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While the next seven days are dominated by that northeast flow and dry ridging, the models for the final week of January are starting to look... well, wet. There is significant disagreement among the computers, but some solutions are showing a legitimate troughing pattern.
Basically, enjoy the dry pavement while you have it.
Breaking Down the Next 10 Days
If you’re planning your life, here’s the gist of what’s coming:
- Mid-week (Jan 21-22): Temperatures hover around 58°F down to 56°F. It’ll stay mostly cloudy. Rain chances remain at a stubborn 10%.
- Next Weekend (Jan 24-25): We’re looking at highs of 55°F and 54°F. It’s getting chillier.
- The Transition (Jan 27): This is the day to watch. The forecast shows a high of 59°F, but the night-time precipitation chance jumps to a whopping 75%.
La Niña and the 2026 Paradox
We are technically in a La Niña advisory right now. Usually, that means California stays dry. But as we saw with the atmospheric river earlier this month, 2026 isn't following the rules.
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Climate experts at NOAA have noted that this La Niña is weak. When it’s weak, the "predictable signals" get messy. There's a 75% chance we transition to "ENSO-neutral" (the middle ground) between now and March.
What does that mean for you? It means the weather is going to be incredibly variable. One day it’s a "Red Flag" offshore wind day, and the next, we’re talking about 1.0 to 2.5 inches of rain hitting SFO by the end of the month.
How to Prep for the End of January
Don't let the 60°F sunny days fool you into thinking winter is over.
- Check your gutters now. The dry spell through January 24 is the perfect time to clear out the debris from the New Year's storms before that 75% rain chance hits on the 27th.
- Layer for the damp. A 55°F day with 80% humidity in San Francisco feels much colder than a 45°F day in a dry climate.
- Watch the tides. We just came off a King Tide cycle, and if the heavy rain returns at the end of the month, low-lying areas will be vulnerable again.
The extended weather forecast for San Francisco California indicates a temporary reprieve. We have about a week of calm, cool, and mostly dry weather before the Pacific decides to get restless again. Keep the umbrella nearby starting next Tuesday, but for Monday? Leave it in the closet and get outside.