Honestly, if you've lived in San Antonio for more than a week, you know the drill. You leave the house in a heavy parka at 7:00 AM and by lunch, you're sweating in a t-shirt wondering why you even bothered. It's basically a local rite of passage. But right now, things are getting a little weird. We are staring down the barrel of the first real freeze of 2026, and after a start to the year that felt more like early May, it’s gonna be a shock to the system.
The San Antonio roller coaster: This week's breakdown
We’re currently sitting in a bizarre bubble of warmth. Today, Friday, January 16, 2026, we’re looking at a high of 73°F. It’s gorgeous. Clear skies, a light breeze from the west at about 12 mph, and basically zero chance of rain. You’d think spring was already here.
But don't get too comfortable.
A cold front is currently sliding toward the Hill Country, and it's bringing a reality check. Tomorrow, Saturday, the high won't even touch 60. We’re talking 57°F with a biting northeast wind. And Sunday morning? That’s the one everyone is talking about. We are finally hitting the freezing mark.
The extended weather forecast for San Antonio Texas shows Sunday, January 18, starting at a crisp 32°F. If you’re outside the city limits—places like Boerne or deep into Bexar County—you might even see a "hard freeze" with temperatures dipping into the high 20s.
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Why the first freeze matters more than usual
We haven't officially hit freezing at the San Antonio International Airport yet this year. That’s wild. Usually, we’ve had at least one morning where we have to scrape ice off the windshield by now.
Because we’ve been so warm, your plants are probably confused. They haven't "hardened off" for the winter. That sago palm or those potted hibiscus you left on the patio? They’re going to get hammered on Sunday morning if you don't drag them into the garage or throw a heavy blanket over them.
Looking further out: The 14-day outlook
Once we get past this weekend's chill, things start to moderate again, but the dryness is the real story. Here is what the next two weeks look like in prose, because let's be real, a table doesn't capture how annoying this weather is to plan for.
Monday, January 19 (MLK Day), starts chilly at 37°F but warms up to a respectable 66°F. It’ll be mostly cloudy, but dry enough for the march. Tuesday stays gray with a high of 58°F.
Then, we might actually see some moisture.
Wednesday, January 21, is currently our best shot at rain. We’re looking at "light rain" and a high of 64°F. It’s not going to be a washout, but with the humidity jumping to 72%, it’ll feel muggy and gross. The rain chances hover around 20% to 30% through Thursday before we dry out again for the following weekend.
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By Saturday, January 24, we’re back to the 70°F mark. It’s a literal see-saw.
The drought nobody talks about (enough)
We have to talk about the rain—or the lack of it. KSAT’s Sarah Spivey recently pointed out that Bexar County has been in some level of drought for four years. That is a massive deficit.
The reason? A "triple-dip" La Niña.
Basically, La Niña pushes the jet stream north, leaving Texas high and dry. The good news is that NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is predicting a shift. We are likely moving into a "Neutral" phase this spring, with a high chance of El Niño returning by fall 2026.
For us, El Niño is the "wet" one. It tips the scales in our favor for more Pacific moisture. It doesn't guarantee a flood, but it’s the first time in years we’ve had a legitimate reason to hope for a soggy autumn.
Survival tips for the San Antonio "winter"
If you're new here, or if you've just forgotten how this works during our weirdly warm December, here is what you actually need to do for this weekend's extended weather forecast for San Antonio Texas.
First, do the "Four P’s" on Saturday night. People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes.
- People: Check on your neighbors who might not have great heating.
- Pets: Bring them inside. Period.
- Plants: Cover them before the sun goes down Saturday to trap whatever warmth is left in the soil.
- Pipes: For a light freeze at 32°F, you're probably okay just wrapping exterior faucets. If you're in the Hill Country and hitting 28°F, you might want to let a slow drip run on your furthest faucet.
Second, prepare for the "San Antonio Layering."
You’re going to need a base layer for the 32°F morning and something you can peel off when it hits 61°F on Sunday afternoon. It’s annoying. You’ll end up with a pile of jackets in your backseat by Tuesday.
What to watch for in late January
The models are hinting at another potential "punch" of cold air toward the very end of the month. The Old Farmer’s Almanac and several local long-range models suggest that while the winter overall will be warmer than average, the late-January-to-early-February window is when we usually see our most significant "Blue Northers."
Don't assume that because we hit 70°F next week that winter is over. Texas weather is famous for its "False Springs." We usually get about three of them before the real deal arrives in March.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Inventory your covers: Find those frost blankets or old towels today, Friday, while it's still 73°F. Don't be the person frantically searching the garage with a flashlight at 10:00 PM Saturday.
- Service your heater: If you haven't turned your furnace on yet this year, do a "test fire" today. It’s better to smell that initial dust-burning scent now than to find out the igniter is dead when it’s freezing on Sunday morning.
- Watch the Tuesday/Wednesday window: If you’re planning outdoor work, aim for Monday. The rain chances on the 20th and 21st are low but real enough to ruin a fresh coat of paint or a car wash.