You've probably noticed that stepping outside in Houston lately feels more like a guessing game than a season. One morning you’re reaching for a heavy parka, and by lunchtime, you’re regretting every life choice as you sweat through a flannel shirt in 80-degree humidity. This isn't just your imagination. The extended weather forecast for houston texas for the rest of January 2026 is showing some seriously bipolar behavior, swinging from record-breaking warmth to shivering rain showers in the span of a single weekend.
Basically, Houston is doing that thing it does best: refusing to acknowledge it’s actually winter.
What the Extended Weather Forecast for Houston Texas Really Means for Your Plans
If you were hoping for a consistent deep freeze to finally kill off the mosquitoes, I’ve got some bad news for you. According to the latest data from the National Weather Service and local watchers like Eric Berger at Space City Weather, we are trapped in a pattern of "anomalous warmth" followed by sharp, but brief, reality checks.
Take this week, for example. We just came off a stretch where highs hit the low 80s—which, honestly, is just rude for January. But the atmosphere is finally pushing back. A weak upper-level system is currently dragging some clouds and light rain across the metro area. It’s not a washout, but it’s enough to make the air feel "heavy."
The Next 10 Days: A Rollercoaster
Look at the upcoming schedule. We aren't seeing a "polar vortex" style collapse, but we are seeing a return to what feels like actual winter.
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- Mid-Week Reset: Wednesday and Thursday (Jan 14-15) are looking crisp. Highs will hover in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Overnight lows will dip into the 40s and even 30s for the inland folks. This is the "sweet spot" of Houston weather.
- The Weekend Tease: Friday, Jan 16, is going to try and trick you. Highs might shoot back up toward 70 degrees. Don't be fooled.
- Rain is Looming: By the time we hit Monday and Tuesday (Jan 19-20), the rain chances start perking up. We’re looking at a 75% chance of showers by Tuesday night. It’s that gray, drizzly Texas rain that makes I-45 a nightmare.
- The Late January Heat Spike: Toward the end of the month, specifically around Jan 22-23, the models are hinting at another surge of southerly air. We could be looking at highs near 78 degrees again.
Why is it so unpredictable?
La Niña is the big boss here. This year, we’ve been dealing with a weak La Niña that is slowly transitioning into an "ENSO-neutral" state. For us in the Bayou City, that usually means a winter that is warmer and drier than average. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center had already flagged this, noting that the southern tier of the U.S. would likely see a "warm bias."
But "warmer than average" doesn't mean "never cold." It just means the cold snaps are shorter and less frequent. We saw a hard freeze last year in 2025 that brought actual snow to places like The Heights, but 2026 seems determined to stay on the milder side of the fence.
Breaking Down the Humidity Factor
Humidity in January is a special kind of miserable. When that warm Gulf air flows inland, it hits the cooler ground and creates that pea-soup fog we’ve been seeing at Hobby and Bush Intercontinental.
Expect more of that.
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The dewpoints have been bouncing around like a basketball. When they stay in the 60s, it feels muggy. When a front passes and drops them into the 30s, your skin starts to crack. This constant switching is why everyone in Houston seems to have a "weather cold" right now. It’s hard for the body to calibrate when the environment changes 30 degrees every 48 hours.
Average Houston January Stats vs. Reality
| Metric | Historical Average | 2026 Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Typical High | 62°F | Frequent 70s and 80s |
| Typical Low | 41°F | Mostly mid-40s |
| Rain Days | 7 days | Higher frequency of light drizzle |
Honestly, the extended weather forecast for houston texas shows that we are currently running about 5 to 10 degrees above where we "should" be. Space City Weather pointed out that the last three years have recorded the three hottest annual average temperatures at Bush Airport since 1969. We are living through a literal heating trend.
The "Hidden" Extreme
Most people focus on the big storms. The hurricanes. The floods. But the real story of the 2026 winter has been the lack of a "true" winter. While the Northeast is bracing for Nor'easters and the Midwest is digging out of snow, we’re out here debating if it’s too early to turn on the A/C.
One thing to watch out for is the late-January "chilly snap." The Old Farmer’s Almanac—which, take with a grain of salt, but they’ve been surprisingly decent lately—predicted the coldest periods for our region would hit in late January and early February. So, don't pack away the heavy blankets just yet. We could still see a rogue frost that catches the gardeners off guard.
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What You Should Actually Do
Stop checking the 10-day forecast and expecting it to stay the same. In Houston, a 10-day forecast is basically a work of fiction after day four.
Focus on the 48-hour window. If you’re planning a trip to Galveston or just a weekend BBQ in Katy, wait until Wednesday to trust the Saturday forecast.
Watch the "Texans Playoff Weather"
For those following the Houston Texans, the late January outlook for their games (especially if they travel north) is going to be a massive contrast to what they’re practicing in at Kirby Drive. If they head toward a place like Boston or Kansas City, they’ll be moving from 75-degree humidity to sub-zero wind chills.
Actionable Steps for Houstonians Right Now
- Check your tires. Those wild temperature swings cause your tire pressure light to go off. Don't panic; it's just physics. The air in your tires is contracting in the morning and expanding in the afternoon.
- Wait to plant. The warmth is tempting you to put out the spring flowers. Don't. We almost always get one last "freeze scare" in February that will turn those new petunias into mush.
- Layers, layers, layers. This isn't just fashion advice; it’s survival. A light windbreaker over a hoodie is the official Houston uniform for the next three weeks.
- Keep the umbrella in the car. The rain chances for the next 10 days aren't "tropical storm" level, but they are "nuisance" level. You'll want it for those Tuesday night showers on the 20th.
The bottom line is that the extended weather forecast for houston texas shows a winter that is struggling to find its identity. We are going to keep oscillating between "fake spring" and "mild winter." Keep an eye on the barometric pressure changes, keep your sinuses clear, and maybe keep the patio furniture out—you’ll probably be using it by the end of next week.