If you’ve lived in the Granite State for more than five minutes, you know the drill. You check the sky, sniff the air, and wonder if you should be buying a new snowblower or a pair of hiking shorts. It’s a gamble. Honestly, trying to pin down an extended forecast New Hampshire style is like trying to herd cats in a blizzard—or, more accurately these days, in a rainstorm.
Right now, as we push through the start of 2026, the vibe is... weird.
For the folks up in Coos County, it’s still very much a winter wonderland. But down on the Seacoast? You’re probably seeing more mud than white stuff. We are currently navigating a winter that the Old Farmer’s Almanac described as "mostly mild with pockets of wild," and boy, they weren't kidding.
The "Mild and Wild" Reality of 2026
The big news this season has been the weird tug-of-war between a weakening La Niña and a stubborn jet stream. Usually, a La Niña year means we get slapped with cold, dry air. But this year, the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center have been tracking a transition to "ENSO-neutral" conditions.
What does that actually mean for your weekend plans in North Conway?
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Basically, it means consistency is dead.
We saw a brutal cold snap in early January that had people in Hanover shivering. Professor Alexander Reid Gottlieb from Dartmouth noted that some parts of the Upper Valley were actually five degrees colder than the 30-year average. But don't let that fool you into thinking the "Old New Hampshire" winters are back for good. That deep freeze was more of a freak occurrence than a trend.
What to Expect for February and March
If you’re looking at the extended forecast New Hampshire outlook for the rest of the season, here is the breakdown of what the models are screaming:
- Temperature Swings: February is looking to be a roller coaster. We’re talking 40-degree days followed by overnight lows in the single digits. This "freeze-thaw" cycle is a nightmare for our roads (pothole season is coming early, folks).
- The Snow Story: While the Farmers' Almanac predicted a "chill, snow, repeat" cycle, the reality has been more "chill, rain, slush." Most long-range models suggest below-average snowfall for the southern half of the state through March.
- The Northern Divide: If you want real snow, go north of the Notch. The White Mountains are still holding onto a decent pack, but even the ski resorts are leaning heavily on the snowmaking guns this year.
Why the Forecast Keeps Getting "Wrong"
It’s easy to blame the meteorologists, but the atmosphere is just behaving differently than it used to. Erich Osterberg, an earth sciences professor, has pointed out that New Hampshire winters have warmed by about seven degrees since 1970. Seven degrees! That is the difference between a beautiful powder day and a miserable afternoon of freezing drizzle.
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The "extended forecast New Hampshire" isn't just about next week; it's about a shifting baseline.
We are seeing more "blocked" patterns in the atmosphere. Sometimes, a big ridge of high pressure just sits over the Atlantic, pumping warm, moist air right up the 95 corridor. When that happens, all those "major winter storm" predictions turn into 45-degree rain events. It’s frustrating for skiers, but it’s a reality we’re living in.
The Impact on the Ground (Literally)
This isn't just about whether you need to salt your driveway. The weirdly cold start to this winter actually froze the ground deeper and earlier than usual. You’d think that’s good for the logging industry—and it is, since they need the "deep freeze" to get heavy equipment into the woods—but it’s bad for our water table.
Because the ground is frozen solid, any rain or melting snow can't soak in. It just runs off. This is actually prolonging the drought recovery from last summer. It’s a weird paradox: we’re worried about flooding while still technically being in a water deficit.
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Living With the Uncertainty
So, how do you plan for a state that can’t decide if it’s January or April? You’ve gotta be flexible.
Honestly, the best way to handle the extended forecast New Hampshire is to stop looking at the 14-day "icon" forecasts and start looking at the "probability" maps from the Climate Prediction Center. They don't tell you if it will snow on the 22nd; they tell you if the odds are tilted toward "warmer than normal" or "wetter than normal."
Right now, the odds for late February and early March are heavily tilted toward above-normal temperatures.
Actionable Advice for Granite Staters
- Check Your Drainage Now: With the projected "mild" end to February, we’re going to see a lot of snowmelt. If your gutters are backed up or your culverts are blocked with ice, you’re going to have a basement pond.
- Don't Swap the Tires Yet: Even in a mild year, New Hampshire loves a "sneaky" April nor'easter. Keep those winters on until at least Tax Day.
- Support Local Indoor Spots: If the ice fishing is sketchy (and it is—be careful on the lakes right now!), it’s a great time to hit up the local breweries or museums.
- Watch the Ticks: This is the gross part. Because we aren't getting those sustained, "kill everything" deep freezes across the whole state, tick season is starting earlier and earlier. If you’re hiking in the southern woods on a 40-degree day, do a check.
The 2026 season is proving that the only thing "normal" about New Hampshire weather is that it’s never normal. We’re in a transition period, moving away from the predictable La Niña patterns of the past and into a more volatile, warmer future.
Keep your shovel handy, but maybe keep the hiking boots by the door too. You’re probably going to need both in the same week.
Next Steps for Your Home and Gear
- Service your snowblower now before the late-season "heavy wet" storms hit; those are the ones that break shear pins and snap belts.
- Clear debris from your foundation to prevent water seepage during the mid-February thaw.
- Monitor the New Hampshire Fish and Game "Ice Thickness" reports before heading out on any frozen bodies of water, as the current freeze-thaw cycle has made ice quality extremely inconsistent this year.