Football is a funny game. Last season, we saw an all-English final where Tottenham finally broke their trophy curse by taking down Manchester United in Bilbao. Now, the circus has moved on to the 2025/26 campaign, and if you’ve been looking at the europa league betting odds winner markets lately, you’ll notice a very familiar name sitting at the top of the pile.
Aston Villa.
Honestly, it makes perfect sense. They have Unai Emery, a man who basically treats the Europa League like his own personal backyard. The guy has won this thing four times. When you have a specialist like that on the touchline, the bookmakers aren't going to give you long odds. Currently, Villa are sitting as the clear favorites, generally priced around 10/3 or 7/2 depending on where you look. They’ve been solid in the league phase, recently carving out a 15-point haul through six matches.
But is it a lock? Absolutely not.
The Heavy Hitters and the "Gasperini Factor"
If Villa are the "safe" play, then AS Roma are the team everyone is whisper-talking about in the betting shops. They’ve undergone a massive identity shift under Gian Piero Gasperini. You remember what he did with Atalanta, right? That high-octane, lung-bursting press is now the heartbeat of the Giallorossi.
Betting markets have them second in line, usually floating around 6/1. They’ve got Paulo Dybala and Lorenzo Pellegrini pulling the strings, and while they had to fight through some gritty 1-0 results in Italy, their European form has been clinical. They are currently locked into the knockout play-off spots, sitting 10th in the table after six games, but nobody wants to draw them in March.
Then there’s the Portuguese factor. FC Porto.
They are perennial nuisances in continental competition. They blend that cynical veteran experience with kids who run like they’ve got jet engines strapped to their boots. At 8/1, they represent that "middle ground" value. They aren't as flashy as Villa, but they know how to navigate a two-legged knockout tie in their sleep.
Why Nottingham Forest are the Wildcard
It’s weird seeing Nottingham Forest this high up, isn't it? Yet, here they are, priced at 8/1 or 9/1 to win the whole thing.
The Brennan Johnson sale to Spurs might have hurt the soul, but the squad depth they've built is legit. Plus, they have Ange Postecoglou now. After winning the trophy with Spurs last year, he’s trying to do the "back-to-back" with a different club. That’s the kind of storyline scriptwriters love, and bettors are clearly buying into the hype. They’ve been averaging low possession—around 41% in some big games—but their counter-attack is lethal. In a tournament like this, being "hard to beat" is often better than being "good to watch."
Sifting Through the Mid-Tier Value
If you’re the type who hates betting on the favorites, the mid-tier is where the real drama lives this year.
- Lyon (10/1): They’ve had a rollercoaster year, including those widely reported financial scares that almost saw them relegated from Ligue 1. They survived the appeal, kept the squad together, and have looked like a team possessed. They are currently leading the Europa League table with 15 points and a +10 goal difference.
- Real Betis (8/1): Manuel Pellegrini is still there, doing Pellegrini things. He’s got Isco registered in the squad despite fitness concerns, which tells you they are going all-in on this.
- Athletic Bilbao: Since the final is at Beşiktaş Park in Istanbul this year, they don't have the "home soil" advantage they missed out on last year, but they remain a nightmare for anyone traveling to the San Mamés.
The New Format is Changing the Math
We have to talk about the format. The old group stage is dead. Now, we have this massive 36-team league phase.
Basically, the top eight teams go straight to the Round of 16. Everyone from 9th to 24th has to survive a two-legged play-off. This is huge for the europa league betting odds winner landscape. If you bet on a team like Lyon or Midtjylland (who are surprisingly 2nd in the table right now), you’re betting on teams that might bypass an entire round of football.
Less games equals less chance for injury. It also means one less opportunity for a "Stade Rennais away" type of disaster.
Realities of the Longshots
Is there a world where a team like Fenerbahçe wins it? At 20/1, they are an eye-catching price. They’ve got Ederson in goal—yes, the former City man—and they’ve been cleaning up in the league phase. Their home atmosphere in Istanbul is basically a fever dream for away teams. Since the final is actually in Istanbul (at Beşiktaş Park), the motivation for a Turkish side to reach that game is through the roof.
On the flip side, you have the "avoid at all costs" list. Nice have been a train wreck. They started the month at +8000 and have drifted to nearly +50000 because they literally haven't picked up a point.
Actionable Strategy for the Knockout Rounds
If you're looking to place a wager on the eventual winner, don't just look at the names. Look at the path.
- Monitor the Top 8 Finishers: Teams like Aston Villa and Lyon are currently in a dogfight to stay in those top eight spots. If they slip to 9th, they add two high-intensity matches to their spring schedule. That kills legs.
- The "Emery Premium": You are going to pay a "tax" for betting on Aston Villa because of Unai Emery's record. If you want better ROI, look at Roma's tactical setup. Gasperini’s system is designed to overwhelm teams that aren't used to that level of fitness.
- Watch the Turkish Sides: Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray (if they drop or stay in) are playing for a "home" final. That emotional edge is real in the later stages.
- The Goal Difference Tiebreaker: In this new league format, goal difference is the first tiebreaker. Teams like Lyon (+10) and Midtjylland (+8) are playing aggressively even when they are 2-0 up because every goal helps them secure that Top 8 bye.
The market is currently leaning heavily toward the Premier League, but the value is almost certainly in Italy or France this year. Keep an eye on the January transfer window—one big striker move to a team like Porto or Betis could shift these odds overnight.
Check the latest injury reports before the January 22nd fixtures, as that final matchday of the league phase will determine who gets the "easy" path to the Round of 16. Once the bracket is locked on February 18th, the prices on the favorites will likely shrink even further.