Honestly, if you've lived in the Willamette Valley for more than a week, you know the drill. It’s gray. It’s damp. Then, suddenly, the sun breaks through for forty-five minutes and everyone at the Saturday Market acts like it’s mid-July. But right now, things feel a little... off. If you’re looking at the Eugene Oregon extended forecast, you’re seeing a weird mix of freezing mornings and suspiciously dry afternoons that don't quite fit the "typical" Oregon winter narrative.
We’re currently sitting in a strange pocket of weather. As of January 17, 2026, the local atmosphere is basically holding its breath. We have an air stagnation advisory in effect, which is fancy meteorologist-speak for "the air is stuck and so is the fog."
The immediate breakdown for Eugene Oregon extended forecast
The next ten days aren't going to be a total washout, which is actually kind of the problem. We are seeing a lot of "partly sunny" and "mostly cloudy" days with very little actual rain hitting the pavement.
- Today (Jan 17): High of 46°F, low of 26°F. It’s sunny now, but the clouds are moving in tonight.
- The Sunday Dip: Tomorrow, Jan 18, drops to a high of 42°F. Still dry-ish, with only a 10% chance of a stray snowflake or sprinkle.
- Mid-week holding pattern: Monday through Thursday (Jan 19-22) is looking pretty consistent. Highs in the mid-40s, lows hovering just around freezing (26°F to 30°F).
Things get interesting—and by interesting, I mean wet—toward next weekend. Around January 23, we finally see the return of the rain. Expect light rain on Friday and a messy rain-snow mix on Saturday, January 24, as a southwest wind picks up to about 13 mph.
Why the "Snow Drought" is a real thing right now
You might have heard the term "snow drought" floating around the news lately. It sounds like a contradiction, but it’s basically what Oregon is dealing with in early 2026. According to the latest data from NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System), about 84% of Oregon’s SNOTEL stations are reporting snowpack levels below the 20th percentile.
That's a huge deal.
In Eugene, we’ve had plenty of "wet" days over the last few months, but it’s been too warm for that moisture to stick in the Cascades. Instead of building up a "natural reservoir" of snow that melts slowly into our rivers during the summer, the water is just running off immediately. This is largely thanks to a weak La Niña that’s been behaving more like a neutral year.
Looking further out: February 2026 expectations
If you’re planning a trip or just trying to decide when to finally prune your roses, the 30-day outlook suggests a shift. Historically, February in Eugene averages a high of 52°F, but the 2026 models are leaning slightly warmer.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently tracking a 75% chance that we transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral between now and March. For us, that usually means the "predictable" cold-and-wet pattern becomes a total wildcard. We could see a random "Arctic intrusion"—those brief, brutal cold snaps that turn the valley into a skating rink—or we could just drift into a very early, very soggy spring.
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The Almanac folks are calling for a "very cold" stretch in early February with periods of rain and snow. Honestly, though, keep your eye on the temps around Feb 5-12. That’s when the models show a significant "warm and rainy" period that could cause some local flooding if the remaining mountain snow melts too fast.
Actionable steps for the next two weeks
Stop checking the app every five minutes and just do these three things:
- Watch the overnight lows: We are seeing several nights in the 20s this week. If you haven't wrapped your outdoor faucets yet, do it today. The 26°F low tonight isn't a joke for exposed pipes.
- Prep for the "Big Damp": The dry spell breaks around Jan 23. If you have gutter work or yard cleanup to do, you have exactly five days of "partly sunny" weather to get it done before the southwest winds bring the rain back.
- Air Quality Check: Because of the stagnation advisory, the valley is trapping wood smoke and vehicle exhaust. If you’re sensitive to air quality, maybe skip the outdoor run until the wind picks up on the 24th.
The Eugene Oregon extended forecast shows a winter that's struggling to find its identity. It's not quite a "frozen tundra" and it's not quite "Springfield-in-April." It's just... Eugene. Keep the wool socks handy, but keep the sunglasses in the car. You’ll probably need both before the day is out.