Winning is everything in the Premier League. Except when it isn't. You see it every few weeks: a manager guides their team through a flawless month, wins four games out of four, and then watches the EPL Manager of the Month trophy go to someone who drew a game against a relegation candidate. It drives fans absolutely mental on social media. People scream about "robbery" and "narrative bias," but the truth behind how this award actually functions is a lot more complex—and honestly, a bit more chaotic—than just looking at a spreadsheet of results.
The Premier League is a meat grinder. It’s a league where a single bad substitution can cost a man his career, yet we boil down the tactical genius of these coaches into a monthly shiny plaque. Since its inception in the 1993/1994 season, this award has become a strange barometer for success. It’s not just about who is the "best." It’s often about who exceeded expectations by the widest margin. That’s why you’ll see Pep Guardiola or Jürgen Klopp ignored for months on end while a guy at a mid-table club gets the nod for beating one "Big Six" team and scraping a few draws.
How the EPL Manager of the Month is Actually Decided
It’s not just a bunch of suits in a room picking their favorite personality. There is a system, though whether it's a good system is up for debate. The winner is decided by a combination of an online public vote and a panel of football experts.
The experts usually include former players and journalists—people like Alan Shearer or Jamie Carragher have been involved in these processes over the years. The public vote, which happens on the Premier League website, accounts for only 10% of the final total. This is a safeguard. If it were 100% public, the manager of Manchester United, Arsenal, or Liverpool would win every single month because of the sheer size of their global fanbases. Even if they lost every game 5-0, the "Votey McVoteface" energy of the internet would probably hand them the trophy anyway.
The Criteria Confusion
What are they actually looking for? There is no official rulebook that says "thou must have a 100% win rate." Instead, the panel looks at:
- Context of the fixtures. Beating Manchester City away is worth more than beating Sheffield United at home.
- Injuries and squad depth. If a manager is winning games with a decimated squad, they get extra points in the eyes of the panel.
- Tactical innovations. Sometimes a manager gets rewarded because they changed their formation and suddenly turned a sinking ship around.
It’s subjective. That’s the rub. You can’t quantify "vibes," but the Premier League panel definitely tries to.
💡 You might also like: Cómo entender la tabla de Copa Oro y por qué los puntos no siempre cuentan la historia completa
The Sir Alex Ferguson Era and the Records That Might Never Break
When you talk about the EPL Manager of the Month, you have to talk about Sir Alex Ferguson. The man was a machine. He won the award 27 times. To put that in perspective, Arsène Wenger is second on the all-time list with 15. That is a massive gap. Ferguson didn't just win because United were good; he won because he mastered the art of the "run." He knew how to make his teams peak in March and April when the title was on the line.
Then you have the modern titans. Pep Guardiola once won it four times in a row during the 2017/18 season. That was a moment of pure dominance that felt almost boring. We reached a point where giving it to anyone else felt like a lie, but giving it to Pep felt repetitive. This brings up the "Suffering from Success" paradox. If your team is expected to win every game, doing exactly that doesn't always feel "award-worthy" to the voters.
Think about someone like Tony Pulis or Sam Allardyce. These guys have multiple awards not because they were winning leagues, but because they were the ultimate firefighters. They would take a team that looked dead and buried, win three games in February, and suddenly they're the toast of the town. It’s a different kind of excellence.
The Curse: Is It Actually Real?
We have to address the "Manager of the Month Curse." It’s the superstition that as soon as a manager poses with that trophy, their team will lose their very next game.
Is there data? Sorta.
📖 Related: Ohio State Football All White Uniforms: Why the Icy Look Always Sparks a Debate
Statisticians have looked at this, and while there isn't a magical hex placed on the trophy, there is a very logical reason for the dip in form. It’s called "regression to the mean." To win the award, a manager’s team usually has to perform at an unsustainably high level. They’ve likely had a bit of luck, a goalkeeper in world-class form, or a striker who couldn't stop scoring. Eventually, that luck runs out. The "curse" is usually just the law of averages catching up with a team that was overachieving.
But try telling that to a manager who just lost 1-0 to a bottom-three side the Saturday after picking up his award. You’ll see the fear in their eyes when the cameras come out for the trophy presentation. Some managers are genuinely superstitious about it.
Why Some Legends Never Won It
This is the part that blows people's minds. Being a great manager doesn't guarantee you this award.
Take José Mourinho. During his second stint at Chelsea, there were massive stretches where his team was untouchable. Yet, he went years without winning a monthly award. Why? Because the narrative shifted. People became used to his "park the dog" or "park the bus" tactics. If he won three games 1-0, the panel often preferred a manager like Roberto Martínez or Eddie Howe who was playing "expansive" football with a smaller budget.
The award often favors the underdog. It favors the story. If a manager takes a promoted side into the top six by October, he’s a lock for the award. If a title-contender wins four games comfortably, it's just "business as usual."
👉 See also: Who Won the Golf Tournament This Weekend: Richard T. Lee and the 2026 Season Kickoff
The 2023/24 Shakeup
Last season provided some wild examples. Ange Postecoglou arrived at Tottenham and won the award in August, September, and October. Three months straight. He became the first manager to win the award in each of his first three months in the competition. It was "Ange-ball" fever. But notice what happened next—the injuries piled up, the high line got exposed, and the awards stopped. The award is a snapshot. It captures lightning in a bottle, but it rarely predicts who will actually be lifting the Premier League trophy in May.
The Selection Process: Behind the Scenes
Nominations usually drop in the first week of the following month. Usually, four to six managers are shortlisted. This is where the social media wars begin.
The Premier League uses Opta data to help the panel. They look at expected goals (xG), clean sheets, and even "big chances created." But the panel members—the "Legends"—often rely on the eye test. They want to see a team that looks coached. They want to see a manager who made a sub in the 70th minute that changed the game.
It’s worth noting that the award isn't just about the Premier League. While it's the primary focus, a manager's conduct and how they represent the league can sometimes play a subconscious role. A manager who is constantly berating officials might find it slightly harder to win over the "expert panel" than a "media darling."
Actionable Insights for the Modern Fan
If you're following the race for the next EPL Manager of the Month, stop looking at just the win column. To predict the winner, follow these steps:
- Check the "Giant Killer" stat: Did a manager beat someone significantly higher than them in the table? That carries 3x the weight of a standard win.
- Look for the "Clean Sweep": If a manager goes 4-0-0 or 3-0-0, they are the favorite, but a 3-1-0 record with a win over a rival often beats a 4-0-0 record against bottom-half teams.
- Watch the narrative: Who is the media talking about? If there’s a "resurrection" story happening at a club like Everton or West Ham, that manager has a massive head start.
- Don't ignore the draws: A 0-0 draw for a team like Ipswich Town against Manchester City is essentially a victory in the eyes of the voters.
The award is a bit of fun, a bit of history, and a whole lot of debate. It doesn't come with a medal or a trophy that sits in the cabinet next to the Champions League, but for those few weeks, it's the ultimate validation that for a brief moment, you had the hardest job in the world figured out.
To stay ahead of the next announcement, keep an eye on the official Premier League social channels during the first Friday of every month. That’s usually when the shortlist drops, and the voting begins. Just remember: if your manager wins, don't be surprised if the next game ends in a heartbreaking 94th-minute equalizer. That's just the way the league works.