Look at the table. Seriously, just look at it. If you told an Arsenal fan three years ago they’d be sitting six points clear of Manchester City in mid-January with a game in hand, they’d probably have asked what brand of delusion you were hocking. But here we are. It’s January 2026, and the English Premier League title odds have done something they haven't done in a generation: they’ve turned North London into the heavy betting favorite.
Mikel Arteta’s project isn't a "project" anymore. It’s a machine. As of this week, most major sportsbooks like William Hill and DraftKings have Arsenal sitting at roughly -150 to -138. That’s a massive swing from the +225 they opened at back in August.
Why? Because they stopped blinking.
The Numbers That Are Terrifying Manchester City
For years, the script was predictable. Arsenal would play beautiful football, hit a "bottling" phase in November, and Pep Guardiola would calmly overhead-press the trophy in May. Not this time. The Gunners have 49 points from 21 games. City? They’re stuck on 43.
The odds tell a story of probability, but the pitch tells a story of "steel." Arsenal’s defense has become a literal wall. William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães are playing like they’ve shared a brain since birth. They’ve only conceded 14 goals in 21 matches.
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Compare that to Manchester City’s current state. Usually, by January, City is on a 12-game winning streak. Instead, they’ve been dropping weird points—like that 1-1 draw with Brighton last week. Bookies have responded by pushing City’s odds out to around +175. It’s the first time in ages you can actually get "value" on a Pep team this late in the winter, which feels kinda gross to even say.
How the Favorites Stack Up Right Now
- Arsenal (-150): The Opta supercomputer is giving them an 86.24% chance. They look inevitable.
- Manchester City (+175): Still the kings of the comeback, but the "control" isn't there. Erling Haaland is still scoring (19 goals already!), but the defense is leaky.
- Aston Villa (+2500): Unai Emery is doing something magical. They’re tied with City on 43 points. Statistically, they "should" be 13th based on xG, but Emi Martinez keeps saving everything.
- Liverpool (+3000 to +10000): A nightmare title defense for Arne Slot. They’re 14 points off the lead. The 0-0 draw at the Emirates last week basically buried their repeat hopes.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Odds
People see a minus sign next to Arsenal and think it’s a done deal. It isn't. Betting markets react to momentum, not just reality. Arsenal still have to go to the Etihad. They still have a Champions League schedule that’s going to start eating their legs in February.
The "quadruple" talk is starting to leak out of the Emirates, which is usually the kiss of death. If you're looking at the English Premier League title odds and thinking about a flutter, you've gotta weigh the "Arteta Factor" against the "Guardiola Ghost."
City has won six of the last eight titles. They know how to breathe when the air gets thin in April. Arsenal is still learning that part. Honestly, the 4/1 price on City at some shops feels like the sportsbooks are baiting us. It’s tempting.
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The Villa Variance
Can we talk about Aston Villa for a second? Their odds are 33/1 at William Hill. That is insane for a team that is literally level on points with Manchester City.
The market doesn't trust them. The "smart money" thinks the wheels will fall off because their underlying stats are, frankly, a bit of a mess. They give up way too many high-quality chances. But they have this weird habit of winning anyway. If you like a "Leicester-lite" story, that’s where the drama is.
The "Big Six" Are Having a Meltdown
This season has been a graveyard for the traditional giants.
- Manchester United: Struggling at 7th. Ruben Amorim is in, but the title is a fever dream.
- Chelsea: Sitting 8th. They spent a billion and are currently focused on just making the Europa League.
- Tottenham: 14th. Yeah, it’s that bad. Thomas Frank’s arrival hasn't fixed the "Spursy" DNA yet.
When the traditional challengers fail, it creates a vacuum. Arsenal has filled it. Liverpool’s collapse from favorites (+180 in August) to massive longshots is perhaps the biggest shock of the 2025/26 campaign. They’ve basically become a "Top 4" bet now rather than a title bet.
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Actionable Insights for the Second Half
If you’re tracking the race or looking at the markets, keep your eyes on the injury reports for Martin Ødegaard and Rodri. Those two players dictate the English Premier League title odds more than any striker.
- Watch the "Arsenal Fog": If Arsenal wins their next three (Forest, West Ham, Wolves), the odds will likely crash to -300. The window to bet on them "cheaply" is closing.
- The Haaland Factor: If Erling Haaland goes on one of his 10-goals-in-4-games tears, City’s odds will snap back to evens instantly.
- Hedging is key: If you backed Arsenal at +225 in the summer, you’re in a great spot to "green out" or hedge with a small cover on City.
The Premier League title race isn't over. It just feels like Arsenal has finally figured out how to keep the car on the road. Whether they can handle the high-speed turns of April and May is the only question left.
Next Steps for You:
Check the upcoming Matchday 22 fixtures. Arsenal plays Nottingham Forest away—a notorious banana skin. If they slip there and City beats United in the derby, expect these odds to flip overnight. Keep a close watch on the "Top 4" market too; Sunderland and Brentford are currently offering massive value for a European spot that nobody expected them to challenge for.