The mid-winter chill hasn't cooled the heat at the top of the table. Honestly, if you’d told an Arsenal fan back in August that they’d be sitting six points clear of Manchester City by mid-January 2026, they probably would’ve laughed you out of the pub. But here we are. Mikel Arteta has his squad humming.
It’s a weird season, isn’t it?
City usually have that "inevitable" aura around this time of year, but drawing four games on the bounce has left them uncharacteristically vulnerable. Tijjani Reijnders—who’s been a revelation since joining—is still talking a big game, telling The Times that the dressing room is "pretty confident" they’ll hunt the Gunners down. But confidence doesn't win games; goals do. And while Erling Haaland is still doing Haaland things with 20 goals already, the supporting cast in Manchester feels a bit... disjointed.
The January Transfer Shakedown
The big English premier league football news this week is the madness of the winter window. Manchester City didn't just sit on their hands after those draws. They went out and snagged Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth.
It’s a massive move.
Semenyo had 10 goals for a struggling Cherries side before the move, and he’s already made an impact, scoring in the Carabao Cup semi-final against Newcastle. He’s that explosive, direct threat that Pep Guardiola seemed to be missing on the flank. Meanwhile, Spurs fans are scratching their heads as Brennan Johnson departed for Crystal Palace in a record £35m deal. Seeing a player go for a loss just months after he scored the winner in a Europa League final is peak modern football.
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West Ham also went big, bringing in Taty Castellanos from Lazio. They’re desperate. When you're flirting with the relegation zone, you don't look for potential; you look for someone who can hit the back of the net immediately.
Why the Top Four Race is a Mess
Liverpool is currently in a transition period that feels like a fever dream. Arne Slot won the league in his first year—a feat that still feels "ludicrously easy" according to some pundits—but the defense of that title has been a "constant battle." They’re sitting 4th, trailing Arsenal by 12 points.
The squad is younger.
Rio Ngumoha is making history as the club’s youngest scorer, but you can’t rely on teenagers to bridge a double-digit gap against a clinical Arsenal side. Then you’ve got Aston Villa. Unai Emery has them tied for 2nd with City on 43 points. It’s not a fluke anymore. Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins have been relentless.
- Arsenal: 49 pts
- Man City: 43 pts
- Aston Villa: 43 pts
- Liverpool: 35 pts
The gap between 3rd and 4th is huge. It basically means the "Big Three" this year are actually Arsenal, City, and Villa. Who would’ve predicted that three years ago?
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Managerial Mayhem and the United Problem
If you think the title race is chaotic, look at the dugouts. Manchester United finally pulled the trigger on Ruben Amorim after a "dispute with the recruitment department." That’s the official line, anyway. Michael Carrick has stepped in to steady the ship, but they’re languishing in 7th.
It’s a mess.
Chelsea isn't much better. They’ve gone through managers like most people go through socks, eventually landing on Liam Rosenior after Enzo Maresca departed by "mutual consent" on New Year's Day. Rosenior has a massive task. Chelsea is sitting 8th, and while the talent is there—Joao Pedro and Enzo Fernandez have shown flashes—the consistency is nonexistent.
The Financial Storm Clouds
Let’s talk about the boring stuff that actually matters: PSR. This is the last season under the old Profit and Sustainability Rules before the new "Squad Cost Ratio" (SCR) kicks in for 2026-27.
Clubs are terrified.
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The new rules will cap spending at 85% of revenue. More importantly, they’ve closed the loophole that allowed teams like Chelsea and Villa to sell hotels or women’s teams to sister companies to balance the books. This is why the January window feels a bit more "sell-to-buy" for the mid-table clubs. If you overspend now, you’re not just risking a fine; you’re looking at a mandatory six-point deduction under the incoming framework.
What to Watch Next
The upcoming Manchester Derby is the pivot point for the entire season. If City lose, the six-point gap could balloon, and Arsenal might actually start chilling the champagne. If City win, the "inevitable" narrative returns.
For fans following English premier league football news, keep a close eye on the "Red Threshold" warnings coming out of the league offices this month. Clubs like Everton and Nottingham Forest are still walking a tightrope.
Actionable Insights for Fans:
- Monitor the Transfer Deadline: February 2nd is the cutoff. Watch for "Panic Buys" from West Ham and Wolves as they fight the drop.
- Watch the Captaincy: With several clubs changing managers, look for shifts in leadership—Bruno Fernandes at United is under a microscope with Carrick in charge.
- Check the Goal Difference: Arsenal (+26) and City (+26) are identical. This could genuinely come down to the final day’s scoring margin if City find their rhythm.
The league is faster, richer, and more volatile than ever. Whether it’s Arteta’s tactical evolution or the looming shadow of the Independent Football Regulator, the next four months are going to be wild.
Stay tuned to the injury reports—Declan Rice’s fitness alone could be the difference between a trophy and another "second place" finish for the Gunners.
Make sure your notifications are on for the deadline day deals; the landscape of the bottom half is likely to change significantly by February 3rd.