You’ve seen the headlines. You’ve probably heard the rumors swirling around social media or caught a snippet of some frantic financial news report suggesting the era of the "Technoking" is coming to a messy end. It's a cycle that seems to repeat every few months: someone claims Elon Musk out at Tesla is a done deal, usually followed by a massive stock swing and a lot of shouting on X.
But honestly? Most of these takes miss the actual mechanics of how Tesla works.
If you look at the landscape in early 2026, the situation isn’t a simple "he's leaving" or "he's staying." It’s much weirder. Just this week, on January 14, 2026, Musk announced a fundamental shift in how Tesla makes money, moving Full Self-Driving (FSD) to a subscription-only model starting Valentine’s Day. Does that sound like a guy with one foot out the door? Or does it sound like someone desperately trying to hit the milestones of a brand-new, trillion-dollar pay package?
The "Exit" Rumors vs. The Trillion-Dollar Golden Handcuffs
People love to talk about Musk being "out" because he’s spread so thin. He's juggling SpaceX, xAI, Neuralink, and whatever the heck is happening with his political aspirations. There was a moment back in 2025 where it looked like the Delaware courts might actually strip him of his previous $56 billion pay deal. Critics were salivating. They thought that if the money vanished, Elon would bolt.
Except that's not what happened.
In late December 2025, the Delaware Supreme Court actually restored that $56 billion package. Talk about a plot twist. Not only did he get his old money back, but shareholders also approved a new 2025 Performance Award. This one is legitimately mind-boggling. It could be worth $1 trillion if he hits targets like a $8.5 trillion market cap and 10 million FSD subscribers.
When people say Elon Musk out at Tesla, they usually mean he's distracted. And yeah, he is. He’s been flirting with starting a new political party and spends a huge amount of time in D.C. But the "distraction" narrative ignores the legal reality: Musk is more financially tied to Tesla right now than he has been in years. You don't walk away from a potential trillion-dollar payday just because you're bored with car manufacturing.
The Tom Zhu Factor
While Elon is busy being a "Main Character" on the global stage, someone actually has to run the factories.
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Enter Tom Zhu.
On January 8, 2026, Tesla handed Zhu a massive stock option package worth over $226 million. This is a classic "retention" move. Zhu is the guy who built Giga Shanghai and basically saved the Model 3 ramp-up. By locking him in through 2031, the board is essentially building a "Musk-proof" operational layer.
If Musk were to actually step down as CEO to become, say, "Chief Product Architect," the infrastructure is already there. It’s a "break glass in case of emergency" leadership plan.
Why the "Elon Musk Out" Narrative Keeps Surfacing
The reason this keyword keeps trending is that Tesla's actual car business is, well, kind of struggling.
The numbers for 2025 were rough. Deliveries were down about 9% for the year. In Europe, the slump has been even worse. When the cars aren't selling like they used to, investors start looking for someone to blame. They look at Musk’s political posts and think, "Is this killing the brand?"
- Brand Erosion: Data from late 2025 suggests that Musk’s personal brand—once Tesla's greatest asset—has become a polarizing force.
- The Robotaxi Delay: Musk promised 1 million robotaxis by 2025. It’s 2026. We’re still waiting.
- The BYD Threat: China’s BYD officially took the crown for top EV seller, making Tesla look like the "old guard" for the first time ever.
It’s easy to see why someone would think he’s on his way out. If you’re a CEO and your core product is losing market share while you're tweeting about government reform, your seat should be hot.
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But Tesla isn't a normal company.
It’s a cult of personality wrapped in a tech conglomerate. The board is filled with Musk’s allies, including his brother Kimbal. Attempting to force Elon Musk out at Tesla would be like trying to remove the foundation of a house while you're still living in the attic. It’s structurally almost impossible.
The Subscription Pivot: A Sign of What's Next
Let's look at the FSD news from this morning.
Musk is killing the $8,000 one-time purchase for Full Self-Driving. From February 14, 2026, it’s $99 a month or nothing.
This is a strategic retreat.
For years, Musk called FSD an "appreciating asset." He said it would eventually be worth $100,000. By moving to a subscription model, he’s admitted that people won't pay $15,000 upfront for software that still requires you to keep your hands on the wheel. But more importantly, the new pay package requires 10 million active FSD subscribers.
He's not leaving. He's digging in. He’s retooling the entire business model to ensure he hits his personal financial targets.
Is He Actually Leaving?
Look, could he step down as CEO? Maybe. There have been internal whispers for months about him moving to a "Technoking/Chairman" role while a "proper" CEO (like Zhu) handles the day-to-day grind of logistics and labor unions.
But "out"? No.
Musk owns roughly 28% of the company as of early 2026. He is the largest individual shareholder by a massive margin. Even if he wasn't the CEO, he would still be the one calling the shots from the shadows.
What You Should Actually Watch
Forget the "Elon is quitting" clickbait. If you want to know the truth about the Elon Musk out at Tesla situation, keep an eye on these three specific metrics over the next six months:
- FSD V14 Adoption: If the subscription numbers don't spike after February 14, the board will face immense pressure to rein in Musk's side projects.
- The "Cybercab" Production: Real, driverless production is the only thing that justifies Tesla's current valuation. If the Texas factory misses the 2026 start date, the "Musk is a liability" chorus will get deafening.
- Regulatory Approvals in Europe: If the Dutch authority (RDW) actually grants FSD approval in February 2026 as rumored, it would be a massive win for Musk, silencing the critics for at least another year.
The reality is that Elon Musk and Tesla are currently in a codependent relationship that neither can afford to break. Tesla needs his ability to raise capital and hype the future; Musk needs Tesla’s balance sheet to fund his other, more "out there" ambitions.
Actionable Insights for Investors and Fans
If you're trying to navigate the noise, stop looking at his social media and start looking at the SEC filings.
First, realize that the "subscription-only" FSD move is a desperate play for recurring revenue. If you own a Tesla, you have until February 14 to buy the software outright—if you think it's actually going to work.
Second, watch the 10-K filings for "Key Person Risk." As long as that language stays as dire as it is, the board isn't going to let him go anywhere.
Finally, understand that the term Elon Musk out at Tesla is often used as a tool for short-sellers. Don't get caught in the panic. The legal and financial structures built around him in late 2025 and early 2026 are designed to keep him exactly where he is: at the center of the storm.
To get a clearer picture of where the company is headed, your next step should be to review the specific milestones in the 2025 CEO Performance Award, as these now dictate every major move Tesla makes. You can also monitor the upcoming February 2026 Dutch RDW regulatory decision, which will be the first real test of Tesla's autonomous claims outside of North America.