Money and power are usually quiet. They whisper in mahogany-row boardrooms or over secure lines. But when Elon Musk decided to go all-in on Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle, he didn’t just whisper. He screamed it from the digital rooftops of X. It was a $291 million bet—the kind of money that makes even other billionaires blink. Musk wasn't just writing checks; he was jumping on stages in Pennsylvania, turning his social media platform into a megaphone, and basically acting like a co-candidate.
Honestly, at first, it looked like the ultimate masterstroke. By late 2024, Musk’s net worth had skyrocketed past $400 billion. He was the first human to ever hit that number. Tesla stock was ripping, and SpaceX was basically the unofficial US space program. People were calling it the "bromance of the century." Trump even gave Musk his own playground: the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.
But fast forward to January 2026, and the vibe is... different. Very different.
The DOGE Experiment: What Actually Happened?
The "Department of Government Efficiency" was always a bit of a weird name. It’s a backronym—a joke based on a Shiba Inu meme and a crypto coin. Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy were tasked with "dismantling government bureaucracy." They talked about cutting $2 trillion from the federal budget. To put that in perspective, that’s more than the entire discretionary budget of the United States.
It was a wild, chaotic time.
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Musk treated the federal government like he treated Twitter (now X). He wanted to fire people. He wanted to move fast and break things. By February 2025, they were launching mass layoffs at federal agencies. But the government isn't a tech company. You can't just turn off the servers and see what happens. Lawsuits started flying immediately. Democracy Forward and other groups sued, arguing that DOGE was violating the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA).
By May 2025, the cracks were wide open. Musk left his post at DOGE. He claimed he had cut $150 billion, but congressional experts and fact-checkers called that a massive exaggeration. Most of the "cuts" were actually just delays or IT modernizations that didn't save nearly as much as promised.
Why the Billion-Dollar Bromance Burned Out
You've probably seen the headlines. By June 2025, the honeymoon was officially dead. It turns out, when you put two of the world's biggest egos in the same room, there’s only enough oxygen for one.
The fallout happened over something surprisingly boring: a taxation-and-spending bill. Musk hated it. He started calling it out on X, predicting it would cause a recession. Trump, never one to take criticism lightly, didn't hold back. He went on Truth Social and said Musk was "wearing thin." He even suggested terminating Musk’s federal contracts and subsidies.
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Think about that for a second.
SpaceX has over $20 billion in federal contracts. Tesla relies on EV tax credits (which Trump threatened to axe). If Trump actually pulls the plug, Musk’s empire doesn't just shake—it craters. By September 2025, Larry Ellison had briefly overtaken Musk as the world's richest person because Tesla stock was plummeting amid the feud.
The Real Cost of Politics
- Tesla Boycotts: In mid-2025, a massive backlash hit Tesla. Showrooms were protested. People who identified as liberals—the primary market for EVs—started ditching the brand because of Musk’s political alignment.
- The "Epstein" Escalation: Things got ugly. By late 2025, Musk was reportedly making references to the Epstein files, and Trump was telling Musk to "go back to where he came from."
- Investor Fatigue: Institutional investors are tired. They want a CEO who runs a car company, not a CEO who spends 18 hours a day in a political street fight.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Bet"
A lot of folks think Musk supported Trump just for the deregulation. That's part of it. Musk famously said that deregulation is the only way he gets to Mars. But it was also personal. Musk felt the Biden administration snubbed him—remember when they held an EV summit and didn't invite Tesla? He took that personally.
His bet on Trump was an attempt to buy a seat at the table of power. For a few months, he had it. He was at Mar-a-Lago almost every day. He was helping pick the cabinet. But in Washington, you're only as good as your last favor. Once Trump was in the White House, he didn't need Musk’s $200 million anymore. He had the keys to the kingdom.
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Actionable Insights for the Path Ahead
If you’re watching this play out, whether you're an investor or just a political junkie, here is what actually matters right now:
Watch the SpaceX Contracts
If Trump follows through on his threat to review SpaceX’s federal standing, the company’s valuation will tank. SpaceX is currently the only reliable way the US gets astronauts to the ISS. That gives Musk leverage, but Trump is known for being unpredictable.
The Tesla Pivot
Tesla is trying to rebrand itself as an "AI and Robotics" company to distance itself from the EV political drama. Watch the progress on the Optimus robot and Full Self-Driving (FSD). If those fail to materialize as revenue drivers, the "Trump Slump" in Tesla stock could become permanent.
The July 4, 2026 Deadline
Trump’s executive order stated that DOGE would officially "delete itself" by July 4, 2026. This date is meant to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the United States. Even though Musk is no longer leading it, the remnants of his "efficiency" agenda are still baked into the administration’s plans. Expect a flurry of deregulation orders leading up to that date as a "gift" to the country.
Diversify Your News Intake
The feud is being played out on X and Truth Social. Both are echo chambers. To get the real story, look at SEC filings and federal court dockets regarding the DOGE lawsuits. That’s where the actual "bet" is being won or lost.
The lesson here is simple. Betting on a candidate is easy. Navigating the aftermath of a victory—especially with a personality as volatile as Trump’s—is the hard part. Musk went from "First Buddy" to "Political Antagonist" in less than a year. It’s a reminder that in the world of high-stakes politics, your billions only buy you access, not loyalty.