If you’ve ever stood at the top of a Holiday Valley run while a sudden, blinding whiteout swallowed your skis, you know that a standard Ellicottville NY weather forecast is more of a polite suggestion than a hard rule. This village is basically a snow magnet. It sits in a very specific geographic sweet spot where the moisture from Lake Erie hits the rising terrain of the Allegheny Plateau, and honestly, the result is often pure chaos for meteorologists but a dream for powder hounds.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, we’re seeing a classic Western New York tug-of-war. One day it’s a balmy 37°F and the village streets are slushy; the next, a cold front slams through, the temperature craters to 11°F, and suddenly the "Enchanted Mountains" look like a scene from a high-budget holiday movie.
What’s Actually Happening This Week?
The current trend is all about these rapid-fire temperature swings. We've got a weak La Niña pattern in play this season, which usually means two things: inconsistent cold and plenty of lake effect "surprises."
Today, January 14, 2026, we're looking at a high of 37°F with some scattered snow showers. But don't let that mild afternoon fool you. By tonight, the floor drops out. We’re expecting a low of 11°F. That’s a 26-degree swing in a matter of hours. If you’re heading out to dinner at Ellicottville Brewing Company, wear the heavy coat even if it feels "fine" when you park the car.
Tomorrow, Thursday, is when the real winter vibes return. Highs will struggle to hit 13°F, and the west winds at 15 mph are going to make the wind chill feel significantly sharper. We’re tracking about a 35% chance of snow showers throughout the day. It’s not a blizzard, but it’s enough to keep the base fresh.
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The "Lake Effect" Reality Check
Most people look at a weather app, see a "20% chance of snow," and think they’re in the clear. In Ellicottville, that’s a rookie mistake. Because of the lake effect, a narrow band of clouds can dump four inches of snow on the north side of town while the south side stays bone dry.
Expert meteorologists across Western New York, including the team at WGRZ in Buffalo, have been keeping a close eye on Lake Erie’s water temperatures. Even this late in the winter, the lake hasn't fully frozen over. That open water acts like a fuel tank for snow clouds. When cold Canadian air blows over that "warm" water, it picks up moisture and dumps it the second it hits the hills around Ellicottville.
For the 2025-2026 season, the Southern Tier is projected to see anywhere from 150 to 190 inches of total snowfall. That is a massive amount of shoveling.
Why Your Phone App Might Be Lying to You
You've probably noticed that your iPhone weather app says one thing, but the sky says another. Standard apps often pull data from regional airports or generalized grid models that don't account for the "micro-climates" of the Allegheny mountains.
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If you want the truth, you have to look at the specialized tools.
- OpenSnow: Kinda the gold standard for skiers. They have local "forecasters" who understand how wind direction affects specific slopes.
- Holiday Valley Snow Report: Always check the live base depth. Currently, we’re seeing a base between 18 and 48 inches. They’ve got 12 out of 13 lifts running, which is solid for this point in the season.
- NYSDOT Cameras: If you're driving down from Buffalo or up from Pennsylvania, check the 219 cameras. The weather in Springville can be totally different from the weather in the village.
The Weekend Outlook: January 17-18
If you're planning a weekend getaway, Saturday looks like the "big" snow day. We’re seeing a high of 32°F with a 40% chance of steady snow in the evening. It’s perfect "lodge weather"—enough snow to look pretty and keep the skiing good, but not so cold that you can’t enjoy a walk down Washington Street.
Sunday brings a bit of a break with partly sunny skies and a high of 20°F. It’ll be crisp. It'll be bright. Honestly, these are the days that make Ellicottville famous. The contrast of the white snow against a blue sky is basically unbeatable.
Practical Tips for the Ellicottville Elements
- Layers are non-negotiable. I’ve seen people show up in heavy wool pea coats and get soaked by a mid-day sleet mix. Stick to a waterproof outer shell.
- The "Wind Chill" Factor. If the forecast says 20°F but the wind is coming from the West at 20 mph, you are looking at a "feels like" temp near zero. Cover your face.
- Driving the 219. This road is notorious. Even if the Ellicottville NY weather forecast looks clear, the stretch near the Ashford flats can get incredibly windy and drift-prone. Ensure you have decent tires; all-seasons are barely "just enough" here.
- The Night Drop. Temperatures in the valley floor often drop faster than on the ridges due to cold air drainage. If you're staying in a rental house in the valley, expect it to be 5 degrees colder than the resort summit at night.
What to Pack Right Now
Forget the "fashion" boots unless they have a serious lug sole. The salt and slush in the village will ruin cheap leather in about ten minutes. Bring insulated, waterproof boots. Most locals live in LL Bean or Sorel-style gear for a reason.
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Also, pack two pairs of gloves. There is nothing worse than trying to pull on damp gloves for a Sunday morning session because they didn't dry out from Saturday's snow.
Looking Ahead to Late January
The long-range models suggest we’ll stay in this "active" pattern through the end of the month. We might see a brief "January Thaw" around the 23rd with some rain-snow mix and highs reaching 36°F, but the cold air is expected to snap back quickly.
Basically, the 2026 season is shaping up to be a classic "yo-yo" winter. Lots of snow, followed by a quick melt, followed by more lake effect. It keeps the groomers busy and the village lively.
To stay ahead of the changes, keep an eye on the local radar rather than just the 10-day forecast. In a place like Ellicottville, the most accurate forecast is usually found by looking out the window and seeing which way the trees are leaning.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Trip:
- Check the Holiday Valley or HoliMont webcams 30 minutes before you leave to see current visibility.
- Download the OpenSnow app and set an alert for "Ellicottville" to get notified of overnight powder dumps.
- Book your dinner reservations at least 48 hours in advance if the forecast looks like a "perfect" ski weekend—the village fills up fast when the snow is good.