Look, if you’ve been following Arizona politics for more than five minutes, you know Maricopa County is basically the center of the political universe. It’s huge. It’s messy. It’s the place where every vote feels like it’s being watched by a million eyes. After the 2024 general election, people were scrambling to figure out if the "purple" trend was actually holding or if things were swinging back. Honestly, the election results Maricopa County produced this time around gave us a pretty clear answer, but you’ve gotta look at the numbers to see the nuances.
It wasn't just a simple win for one side or the other. We saw a massive split-ticket phenomenon that would make a political scientist's head spin. While Donald Trump took the county comfortably, Democrats managed to hold onto a massive U.S. Senate seat. It’s wild.
The Presidential Shift and the Trump Comeback
Everyone wanted to know if 2020 was a fluke. Remember when Joe Biden flipped the county by just over 10,000 votes? That feels like a lifetime ago. In 2024, the script flipped. Donald Trump didn't just win; he reclaimed the territory with 1,770,242 votes statewide, but the Maricopa specific numbers showed a definitive 51.2% to 47.7% lead over Kamala Harris. That’s a roughly 3.5 point gap.
Why did it happen? People are pointing at a few things.
- Cost of living in the Valley has been brutal.
- Housing prices in Phoenix and Scottsdale are through the roof.
- Voters felt the pinch at the grocery store and took it out on the incumbent party.
Basically, the "moderate" suburbs that went for Biden in 2020 decided they’d had enough of the current economic trajectory. They didn't necessarily become MAGA overnight, but they voted for change. You’ve got to realize that Maricopa accounts for about 60% of the entire state's vote. If you win here, you usually win the state. And Trump did exactly that.
The Senate Surprise: Why Ruben Gallego Prevailed
Now, here is where it gets kinda weird. If Trump won the county by 3 points, you’d expect Kari Lake to ride those coattails, right? Wrong.
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Ruben Gallego managed to pull off a victory in the election results Maricopa County tallies by appealing to a very specific group: the McCain Republicans and the Independents who liked Trump's economy but couldn't stomach Lake’s brand of politics. Gallego won Maricopa County by over 105,000 votes. That is a massive swing.
Gallego hit 51.5% in the county, while Lake trailed at 46.3%. That’s a 5-point margin for the Democrat in a county the Republican presidential nominee won. Think about that for a second. Thousands of people walked into a booth, checked the box for Trump, and then moved their pen down and checked the box for Gallego.
Lake’s campaign focused heavily on the border and 2020 election grievances. It clearly didn't resonate the same way Trump’s message did. Gallego, a Marine veteran, played up his bio and focused on reproductive rights, which was a huge driver in this cycle.
Breaking Down the Local "Red Wave"
While the top of the ticket was split, the local county offices were a different story. It was a bloodbath for Democrats at the county level. Republicans swept almost everything.
For the first time in a while, the Sheriff’s office is back in GOP hands. Jerry Sheridan beat Tyler Kamp with 53.4% of the vote. Remember, this seat was held by Paul Penzone (a Democrat) for years until he resigned earlier in 2024. The GOP also held onto the County Attorney’s office with Rachel Mitchell winning 54.5% against Tamika Wooten.
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Then you have the Recorder’s office. This was the most contentious race in the building. Justin Heap, a Republican, took the seat with 52.2% of the vote. He’s replacing Stephen Richer, who had become a national figure for defending the 2020 results but lost in the primary to Heap. This shift signals a move toward a more "skeptical" administration of elections, even if the processes themselves remain highly regulated.
Turnout and the Two-Page Ballot Problem
We have to talk about how people actually voted. Turnout was massive. We’re talking 80.34%. That is the third-highest turnout in the county’s history, rivaling only 1980 (Reagan) and 2020.
Maricopa County Elections Director Scott Jarrett pointed out something pretty interesting during the canvass: this was a two-page ballot year. Because there were so many propositions—everything from abortion rights to border enforcement—each voter had two physical sheets of paper. This effectively doubled the workload for the tabulation machines.
| Voting Method | Percentage of Ballots |
|---|---|
| Early Mail-In (Sent Back) | 53% |
| Dropped Off (at polls/boxes) | 30% |
| Election Day In-Person | 12% |
| Early In-Person | 11% |
(Note: Figures are rounded and reflect the diverse ways Maricopans handle their civic duty.)
The sheer volume of paper is why Arizona takes longer than other states. It’s not a conspiracy; it’s just a lot of physical scanning. There were 2,078,460 ballots cast. That is a mountain of paper.
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The Independent Factor
The "Other" category of voters is now the second-largest voting bloc in the county. There are more Independents than Democrats.
| Party | Registration % (Approx) |
|---|---|
| Republican | 35.8% |
| Independent / Other | 33.7% |
| Democratic | 29.0% |
This is why the election results Maricopa County saw were so divergent. You can’t win here by just talking to your base. You have to convince the "Other" group. Trump convinced them on the economy. Gallego convinced them on "normalcy" and personal rights.
What This Means for Your Next Move
The 2024 cycle proved that Maricopa County isn't "blue" or "red"—it’s deeply pragmatic and slightly exhausted. If you're a voter or someone keeping tabs on the Valley’s future, here is how you should interpret these results.
First, don't trust a single-party narrative. The split between the Presidential and Senate results shows that voters are looking at individuals, not just jerseys. If a candidate is too extreme for the suburbs, they’re going to lose, even if their party's leader is winning.
Second, get familiar with the new leadership at the county level. With Justin Heap as the new Recorder and Jerry Sheridan as Sheriff, the administration of the 2026 midterms is going to look different. There will likely be new debates over hand-counting and mail-in ballot security.
Take Actionable Steps:
- Check your registration status: Even though the election is over, the county often cleans rolls after a major cycle. Make sure your info is current at Maricopa.Vote.
- Review the Propositions: Voters passed Prop 139 (Right to Abortion) and Prop 314 (Border Enforcement). These will have immediate legal and social impacts in Maricopa County. Keep an eye on how the Board of Supervisors implements the funding for these mandates.
- Watch the Board of Supervisors: Republicans held their 4-1 majority on the Board. This group controls the budget for the fourth-largest county in the US. Their meetings are public and usually streamed online; if you care about your property taxes (the Assessor Eddie Cook also won reelection), that’s where the real work happens.
Maricopa County is never truly "settled." The dust is still landing from 2024, but the 2026 gears are already starting to turn. Keep your eyes on the data, not the drama.