If you spent any time watching the news during the 2024 election cycle, you probably heard a lot of talk about "demographic shifts" and "changing coalitions." It sounds complicated. Honestly, it kind of is. But when you look at the election results by race and gender, the story isn't just about who won or lost. It’s about a massive reshuffling of how Americans see themselves and their priorities.
For decades, political scientists relied on a pretty predictable playbook. They assumed certain groups were "locked in" for specific parties. 2024 basically threw that playbook out the window.
The biggest shocker? The way the gender gap played out across different racial lines. You've probably heard that women favor Democrats and men favor Republicans. That’s generally true, but the margins are where things get wild. In this election, we saw Latino men swing toward Donald Trump in numbers that left pundits staring at their screens in disbelief. Meanwhile, the bedrock of the Democratic party—Black women—remained the most consistent voting bloc in the country.
The Latino Shift: A Flipped Script
Let's talk about the elephant in the room. Or rather, the elephant in the voting booth. The shift among Hispanic and Latino voters was arguably the most significant headline of the election results by race and gender.
According to AP VoteCast, Kamala Harris won about 51% of the Hispanic vote nationally. That sounds okay until you realize Joe Biden won roughly 63% in 2020. That is a massive 12-point drop. But the real story is hidden in the gender breakdown.
- Latino Men: This group saw a seismic shift. In 2020, Biden won Latino men by about 23 points. In 2024, Donald Trump actually won this group by a margin of 10 points (54% to 44%). That’s a 33-point swing.
- Latino Women: They still favored Harris, but the margin narrowed significantly. The Democratic lead here dropped from 39 points in 2020 to just 22 points in 2024.
Why did this happen? It wasn't just one thing. If you look at the data from the Roper Center, "The Economy" was cited as the top issue for 32% of all voters, and among Latino men, the frustration over inflation was palpable. They weren't voting on "identity politics" as much as they were voting on the price of eggs and gas. Trump’s message of economic strength and traditional masculinity resonated in ways that caught the Harris campaign off guard.
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Black Voters: Consistency vs. Chipping Away
When you look at Black voters, the Democratic party still holds a commanding lead, but the armor is starting to show some cracks.
Black women remain the most loyal Democratic constituency. Period. About 91% of Black women backed Harris. That’s barely a nudge from the 93% who supported Biden. They are the foundation.
However, Black men showed a different trend. While 77% still supported Harris, Trump managed to double his support with young Black men (under age 45) compared to 2020. It’s not a "mass exodus," but it is a "chipping away." About 3 in 10 Black men under 45 went for Trump. That’s enough to move the needle in tight swing states like Pennsylvania or Georgia.
Basically, the Democratic "Big Tent" is feeling a bit smaller these days.
The White Vote: Stability in the Suburbs?
White voters still make up the largest chunk of the electorate—about 71% according to Edison Research. This group didn't actually change that much, which is surprising given how much noise there was about "suburban moms" and "disaffected Republicans."
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Trump won white voters overall by 57% to 41%.
If you break it down by gender:
- White Men: Trump won them 60% to 37%. This has been a solid Republican base for a long time.
- White Women: Trump won them 53% to 45%. Despite the focus on reproductive rights and the Dobbs decision, a majority of white women still chose the GOP.
This highlights a major misconception. Many thought the issue of abortion would cause a mass defection of white women from the Republican party. While it definitely motivated some, for many others, the economic "pocketbook" issues outweighed the social ones.
The Education Divide is the New Gender Gap
One of the coolest (or most frustrating, depending on your job) things about the election results by race and gender is how much education now acts as a force multiplier.
College-educated women of all races were much more likely to vote for Harris. On the flip side, non-college-educated men were the driving force behind Trump’s surge. This "diploma divide" is becoming just as important as the gender gap. In fact, if you look at white voters without a college degree, Trump won them by a staggering 34-point margin.
What Most People Get Wrong
People love a simple narrative. "Women hate Trump" or "Minorities love Democrats."
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The reality? It’s messy.
The 2024 data shows that "gender" isn't a monolith. A young, Latina woman in Miami has a completely different set of priorities than a white, college-educated woman in the Philadelphia suburbs. We're seeing a move toward "class-based" voting rather than just "identity-based" voting.
Trump’s gains weren't just about his personality; they were about a specific appeal to the working class across racial lines. He built a "multiracial working-class coalition" that, while not a majority of minority voters, was enough to break the "Blue Wall."
Actionable Insights: What This Means for the Future
If you’re a political junkie or just someone trying to make sense of the dinner table arguments, here is what you need to keep an eye on:
- Watch the "Irregular" Voter: Pew Research found that the shift toward Trump was largely driven by "irregular" voters—people who don't always show up. These voters are less tied to a party and more tied to how they feel about the country's direction right now.
- The Economy is King: No matter the race or gender, if people feel like they can't afford a home or groceries, they will vote for change. "Identity" takes a backseat to "solvency."
- Youth Divergence: Young men and young women are moving in opposite directions. Young men are becoming more conservative, while young women are becoming more liberal. This 40-point "gender gap" among Gen Z is a ticking time bomb for future elections.
The 2024 election results by race and gender proved that no group is a "sure thing." Parties have to earn votes every single cycle. They can't just rely on demographics to do the work for them anymore.
To stay informed for the next cycle, start looking at local election data in your own county. See if these national trends—like the shift in Latino male voters—are happening in your backyard. The "big picture" is made of millions of tiny, local stories.
Next Steps for Deep Understanding:
- Review the Raw Data: Check out the Roper Center's 2024 Exit Polls for a deep dive into specific percentages.
- Compare to 2020: Use the Pew Research Center's validated voter data to see exactly how individual "switchers" behaved.
- Analyze Local Trends: Look at your state's Secretary of State website to see how turnout varied by precinct—this often reveals more about "class" than national polls ever could.