Honestly, if you just glance at the 2024 map, it looks like a giant sea of red with a few tiny blue islands. But looking at election results by county 2024 that way is kinda like looking at a weather map and assuming it’s sunny because the yellow parts are bigger than the clouds. It’s misleading.
Population density is the real story. Take a look at the massive shift we saw this time around. Donald Trump didn't just win; he improved his margins in over 2,300 counties. That's about 90% of the country moving in one direction. It wasn't just a rural thing, either.
The Big Shift in the Places You Wouldn't Expect
Usually, we talk about the "urban-rural divide" like it’s a physical wall. In 2024, that wall got a bit crumbly. For years, Democrats relied on massive margins in big cities to carry swing states. But in 2024, Kamala Harris saw her support dip in urban centers. In Wayne County, Michigan—home to Detroit—she saw a decline of more than 60,000 votes compared to Joe Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump picked up about 24,000 there.
It's the same story in Maricopa County, Arizona. This is the big one. It's basically the whole state's political heart. Harris got roughly 61,000 fewer votes there than Biden did. When you combine that with Trump gaining 56,000, you’re looking at a 117,000-vote swing in a single county. That's basically the game right there.
Why the Suburbs Flipped (Sorta)
We’ve heard "suburban women" mentioned a billion times on cable news. But the 2024 data shows the suburbs aren't a monolith. Trump actually won the suburbs 51% to 47%. That’s a huge deal because the winner of the suburbs has won 11 of the last 12 presidential elections.
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Look at the Philadelphia suburbs—the "collar counties." There was a net swing of almost 60,000 votes toward Trump in those four counties alone. They didn't all "go red," but they got less blue. In a tight race, getting "less blue" is basically a win for the GOP.
Those "Pivot Counties" Are Back
Remember the "Pivot Counties"? These are the places that voted for Obama twice, then flipped to Trump in 2016. In 2020, Biden managed to claw some back. In 2024, Trump took 197 of these counties.
One of the most extreme examples is Woodruff County, Arkansas. Back in 2012, Obama won it by about 4 points. In 2024? Trump won it by over 33 points. That is a massive demographic and cultural realignment happening in real-time.
- Pueblo County, Colorado: Voted for Obama twice, went Trump in '16, Biden in '20, and now back to Trump (R+2.5).
- Pinellas County, Florida: This used to be the ultimate bellwether. Trump won it by 5 points this time.
- St. Lucie County, Florida: Another Obama-to-Trump flip that stayed red and even moved further right (R+9).
The "Red Wall" in Rural America
Rural areas went even harder for Trump than they did in 2016 or 2020. He pulled about 64% of the rural vote. That’s a record. No candidate since 1980 has done better in the countryside.
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But here’s the thing people miss: it’s not just that these places are red; it’s that the turnout stayed high there while it dropped in the cities. In California, for example, the deep blue Los Angeles County saw a 14% drop in turnout. When your base stays home and the other side's base shows up, the county-level map starts looking very different very fast.
It's All About the Margins
If you're trying to understand election results by county 2024, don't just look at who won. Look at the "swing." Even in states Harris won easily, like California or New York, the counties moved toward the right.
Harris won California by 20 points. Sounds like a lot, right? Well, Biden won it by 29 points in 2020. That 9-point shift is a signal. It tells us that the economic frustration or whatever was driving voters wasn't just happening in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin—it was everywhere.
What This Means for the Future
The 2024 results suggest that the "blue wall" states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) are no longer a safe bet for anyone. They are truly "purple" now, decided by a handful of counties like Bucks in PA or Waukesha in WI.
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Also, the Hispanic vote in places like Starr County, Texas, is changing the math. Starr County is 97% Hispanic and had voted Democratic for a century. Trump won it. That’s not a "shift"—that’s a political earthquake.
How to Use This Data Today
If you're a political junkie or just someone trying to make sense of the local news, here's how to actually use these election results by county 2024:
- Stop looking at state totals. They hide the real story. Look at the "pivot counties" in your state to see where the culture is moving.
- Check the "swing" percentage. A county can stay blue but still show a 10% move toward the GOP. That's where the next election will be fought.
- Watch the GDP vs. Geography. Interestingly, the counties Harris won represent about 60% of the U.S. GDP, but Trump won about 87% of the actual counties. This economic-geographic divide is only getting wider.
- Localize your focus. If you’re in a "trending" county (one that has changed its margin significantly over the last three elections), your local politics are likely to get a lot more intense in the next few years.
The 2024 election proved that no county is truly "safe" anymore. The map is more fluid than it’s been in decades, and the "results by county" are the only way to see the real picture.
Next Steps for Deep Analysis:
- Download the raw CSV data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab to compare your specific county's turnout with the 2020 numbers.
- Use a "cartogram" map tool (which sizes counties by population rather than land area) to see the true weight of the urban vs. rural vote.
- Cross-reference county results with local economic data, like the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rates, to see if there's a direct correlation in your area between economic stress and the 2024 swing.