Wait, take a breath. If you’ve been scrolling through social media today, you’ve probably seen the headlines screaming that el Madrid está eliminado de la Champions. It’s the kind of news that sends shockwaves through the football world. But before you start mourning the "Kings of Europe" or throwing a party if you're a Barça fan, we need to look at the actual math.
Honestly, the Champions League format in 2026 is a bit of a headache. Gone are the days of simple four-team groups where you knew exactly where everyone stood by matchday four. Now, we’re dealing with this massive 36-team "League Phase" that feels more like a marathon than a sprint.
The Reality of the Situation
Real Madrid hasn't had it easy this season. Losing 2-1 to Manchester City at the Bernabéu on December 10, 2025, was a massive gut punch. Seeing Erling Haaland celebrate his first-ever goal at the stadium was surreal. People immediately started saying it was over. "The aura is gone," they said.
But here is the thing: as of January 17, 2026, Real Madrid is not eliminated. They are currently sitting in 7th place in the league table with 12 points from 6 matches. In this new format, the top eight teams go straight to the Round of 16. If the season ended today, Madrid would actually be safe. But the season isn't over. They still have two massive games left in this phase:
- Monaco at home (January 20, 2026)
- Benfica away (January 28, 2026)
If they lose both? Then we can talk about a crisis. But right now? It's just drama.
Why Everyone Thinks They're Out
The confusion usually stems from the 2024-2025 season. Last year, Real Madrid actually was eliminated in the quarter-finals by Arsenal. That 5-1 aggregate loss (losing 2-1 at home after a 3-0 drubbing in London) was the first time they failed to reach the semis since 2020. That wound is still fresh for many fans.
When you combine last year's failure with a couple of shaky losses this season—like the 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in November—it’s easy to see why the "eliminated" narrative spreads so fast.
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Xabi Alonso, who took over for Carlo Ancelotti in June 2025, is feeling the heat. It’s his first year back at the club as a manager. People expected immediate perfection. Instead, they’ve seen a team that is still finding its identity after the departure of legends like Luka Modrić.
The "League Phase" Trap
The new UEFA format is designed to keep teams alive longer, but it also creates more opportunities for "fake" news about eliminations.
Basically, the teams ranked 9th to 24th have to play a two-legged playoff to even reach the Round of 16. If Madrid slips out of the top eight, they aren't "out"—they just have to play more games. To be truly eliminated at this stage, they would have to finish 25th or lower.
With 12 points already in the bag, it is mathematically almost impossible for them to drop to 25th. Even if they lose to Monaco and Benfica, they’ll likely still be in the playoff spots.
So, why the panic?
Because this is Real Madrid. For this club, having to play a "playoff" to get into the Round of 16 is viewed as a failure. It’s embarrassing. To the Madridismo, if you aren't dominating, you're failing.
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What Really Happened Against Man City
That December match was a turning point for the narrative. Rodrygo scored a beauty in the 28th minute. The Bernabéu was rocking. We all thought, "Okay, here they go again."
Then Nico O’Reilly equalized for City just seven minutes later.
The second half was a mess. Rüdiger gave away a penalty on Haaland, and the Norwegian didn't miss. Madrid hit the crossbar late with a header from Endrick, but it wouldn't go in. It was one of those nights where the "magic" just felt absent.
Since that loss, the team has bounced back in La Liga, beating Sevilla 2-0 and crushing Real Betis 5-1. They are currently 2nd in the league, just one point behind Barcelona. They aren't a "bad" team. They’re just a team in transition.
Key Factors for the Next Two Weeks
If you want to know if el Madrid está eliminado de la Champions for real, watch these three things:
- Kylian Mbappé’s Health: He’s been dealing with minor knocks all season. He’s already scored 59 goals in the 2025 calendar year, but if he isn't 100% for the Monaco game, the attack looks stagnant.
- The Xabi Alonso System: Alonso is trying to implement a more structured, possession-based style than Ancelotti’s "vibes and transitions." Sometimes the players look like they’re thinking too much instead of playing.
- The Defense: With David Alaba aging and the reliance on young Raul Asencio, the backline has looked porous against elite teams like City and Liverpool.
Actionable Steps for Fans and Analysts
Stop looking at the 2025 results and focusing on the 2026 schedule.
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Check the live UEFA standings on January 20th after the Monaco game. If Madrid wins, they secure a top-eight spot and go straight to the Round of 16. No playoffs. No extra games. No drama.
If they draw or lose, keep an eye on teams like Arsenal, Bayern, and Inter. The point gap is tiny. One bad result could mean Madrid has to play two extra games in February, which would absolutely wreck their domestic title charge against Hansi Flick’s Barcelona.
In short: Real Madrid is currently in the "danger zone" of their own high expectations, but they are very much alive in the competition. Don't believe everything you read on X (formerly Twitter) until the final whistle blows in Lisbon against Benfica on January 28.
The Kings of Europe might be bruised, but they aren't dethroned yet.
Next Steps to Track the Situation:
- Monitor the official UEFA Champions League standings specifically for the League Phase.
- Verify injury reports for Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior prior to the January 20th kickoff.
- Compare Real Madrid's goal difference (+6) against Atlético Madrid (+3) and Liverpool (+3), as this will be the tiebreaker for the final top-eight seeding.