If you’ve lived in Butler County for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up to a crisp, sunny sky that looks like a postcard, but by the time you're grabbing lunch, the wind is trying to take your car door off its hinges. That's basically the vibe right now. Honestly, tracking the el dorado ks weather forecast this time of year is less about checking a thermometer and more about measuring your tolerance for "blustery."
The Immediate Outlook: Cold is One Thing, Wind is Another
Right now, El Dorado is sitting at a steady 43°F, which doesn't sound too bad on paper. But with those northwest winds whipping through at 25 mph, the "feels like" temperature is actually shivering down at 34°F. If you're heading out to the lake or even just running into Wal-Mart, that's the number that actually matters.
The rest of today, Friday, January 16, 2026, is going to stay mostly cloudy with a high of 44°F. There’s a slight 20% chance of snow during the day, so don't be shocked if you see a few stray flakes drifting across Central Avenue. Tonight, things get real. The sky clears up, which sounds nice until you realize that means all the heat is escaping into space. We’re looking at a low of 19°F.
Tomorrow’s Reality Check
Saturday is gonna be a bit of a reality check for anyone hoping for an early spring. The high only hits 27°F. Combined with an 18 mph wind, it’s going to be one of those days where the air just feels sharp.
Interestingly, Sunday offers a weirdly typical Kansas rebound. We jump back up to 48°F. This "rollercoaster" effect is something local meteorologists and long-time residents have documented for decades. The Western Regional Climate Center records show that while our average January high is about 43°F, we’ve seen everything from record-shattering freezes to weirdly warm 60-degree afternoons in the middle of winter.
Why the Wind Always Wins in El Dorado
You’ve probably noticed that the wind in the el dorado ks weather forecast rarely takes a day off. Because we’re sitting in the Flint Hills region, there’s not much to stop those gusts once they pick up speed.
Historically, April is actually our windiest month, but January and February aren't far behind. The current northwest flow we’re seeing is typical for a post-front clearing. It brings in that dry, Canadian air that makes the humidity drop to around 32%—great for your hair, terrible for your skin.
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Looking Toward the Week Ahead
If you can make it through the chilly Saturday and the Monday dip (high of 32°F), Tuesday looks like the winner of the week. We’re eyeing a high of 49°F under full sun.
| Date | Condition | High | Low | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | Mostly Cloudy | 44°F | 19°F | 25 mph NW |
| Saturday | Partly Sunny | 27°F | 14°F | 18 mph NW |
| Sunday | Mostly Sunny | 48°F | 18°F | 16 mph W |
| Monday | Mostly Sunny | 32°F | 18°F | 9 mph N |
| Tuesday | Sunny | 49°F | 23°F | 22 mph SW |
Misconceptions About Winter Precipitation
Most people assume a 20% chance of snow means a dusting is guaranteed. In El Dorado, that usually just means "Virga"—precipitation that evaporates before it even hits the ground because the air is so dry. With humidity at 45% today, there’s a decent chance any moisture just vanishes into thin air.
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Survival Tips for the Next 48 Hours
Basically, don't trust the sun. It's a liar in January.
Layering is the only way to survive a day that starts at 19°F and ends at 44°F. If you’re working outdoors, the wind chill is your biggest enemy. According to the National Weather Service, wind speeds over 20 mph can drop the perceived temperature by 10 to 15 degrees almost instantly.
Keep an eye on the el dorado ks weather forecast as we head into Tuesday. The shift from a north wind to a southwest wind at 22 mph is what’s going to trigger that jump back toward 50 degrees. It’s a classic Kansas setup.
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Actionable Next Steps:
- Winterize Your Vehicle: Check your tire pressure tonight; that drop to 19°F will likely trigger your "low pressure" sensor.
- Hydrate Your Plants: If you have evergreen shrubs, give them a quick water before the ground freezes solid on Saturday morning.
- Plan Outdoor Chores for Tuesday: It'll be the warmest, clearest window for any yard work or maintenance you've been putting off.