Honestly, if you're planning a trip to the Scottish capital right now, you've probably looked at the Edinburgh weather 14 day forecast and felt a bit of a sinking feeling. Cloudy. Rain. More clouds. Rinse and repeat.
But here is the thing about Edinburgh in January: the numbers on your screen rarely tell the whole story.
Right now, we are sitting at a crisp 38°F with a massive 91% humidity. It feels like the air is literally holding its breath. There is a light southeast wind—barely a whisper at 2 mph—but don't let that fool you. In this city, the "feels like" temperature is the only metric that actually matters when you're standing on top of Calton Hill.
The Reality of the Edinburgh Weather 14 Day Forecast
We are currently in a weird transition period. After a brutal start to the month that saw the Scottish Government Resilience Room (SGORR) meeting daily due to "Arctic air" and record-breaking snow in the north, things are turning... well, messy.
The forecast for the next two weeks is basically a tug-of-war between mild Atlantic air and stubborn cold.
Today, Sunday, January 18, we’re looking at a high of 42°F and a low of 31°F. There’s a 25% chance of snow during the day, which usually means "blink and you'll miss it" flurries that turn into slush the moment they hit the pavement. Tonight, that shifts to a 20% chance of rain under a thick blanket of clouds.
The Week Ahead (The "Damp" Phase)
Tomorrow, Monday, stays mostly cloudy with a high of 45°F. By Tuesday, we hit the "peak" warmth for the week at 47°F.
Wait. Don't pack the sunglasses yet.
As the temperature climbs, the wind starts to wake up. By Wednesday, January 21, those gusts will hit 18 mph, and by Thursday, we’re looking at 21 mph winds coming straight from the east. In Edinburgh, an easterly wind in January is basically a personal insult from the North Sea. It’s biting. It’s damp. It makes that 42°F high feel like a freezer.
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Why the "Rain" Forecast is Often a Lie
One of the biggest misconceptions about the Edinburgh weather 14 day forecast is the rain percentage. You see a "40% chance of rain" for Friday, January 23, and you think the day is a wash.
In reality, Edinburgh is one of the driest cities in Scotland. Because we are tucked in the rain shadow of the Highlands, we often get "smirr"—that fine, misty rain that Scots don't even consider "real" rain. You can usually walk through it for twenty minutes and only be slightly damp.
The real danger right now isn't the rain falling from the sky; it's the ice on the ground. With lows hovering between 31°F and 40°F over the next ten days, the "freeze-thaw" cycle is in full swing. The beautiful cobblestones of the Royal Mile turn into a literal skating rink by 8:00 AM.
Current 10-Day Outlook at a Glance
- Early Week (Jan 19-21): Milder but increasingly windy. Highs near 46°F.
- Mid-Week (Jan 22-24): Wind peaks at 22 mph. Expect "sideways rain."
- Next Week (Jan 25-28): A return to colder, "mostly cloudy" days. Highs drop back toward 39°F with a 10% chance of snow by Tuesday the 27th.
Surviving the Scottish "Gloom"
People always ask if they should bring an umbrella. Kinda, but mostly no.
The wind here eats umbrellas for breakfast. Honestly, you'll see "corpses" of cheap brollies stuffed into bins all over Princes Street after a gusty afternoon. A high-quality waterproof shell with a hood is your best friend.
Also, forget the "heavy winter coat" strategy. You want layers. You'll be freezing outside, then you'll walk into a cozy pub like The Bow Bar or The Jolly Judge, and the heating will be cranked to "tropical." If you aren't wearing layers, you're going to be miserable within five minutes of ordering your dram.
What to Pack Right Now
- Waterproof Boots: Not just for rain, but for the slush and the salt.
- Tech Gloves: You’ll want to take photos of the Castle, and your fingers will go numb in approximately 90 seconds without them.
- Wool Socks: Cold feet are the fastest way to ruin a trip to the Vaults.
- Moisturizer: That biting east wind (especially the 22 mph gusts predicted for Friday) will wreck your skin.
The Bright Side (Literally)
While the Edinburgh weather 14 day forecast looks gray, the daylight is finally coming back. At the start of January, the sun was setting before 4:00 PM. By the end of this forecast period (January 31), we will have gained nearly an hour and a half of daylight since New Year's Day.
Sunset is currently around 4:15 PM, but it’s creeping later every day. There is something incredibly atmospheric about the "blue hour" in Edinburgh when the streetlights flicker on against the dark volcanic rock of the city.
Pro Tip: If the forecast says "mostly cloudy" for Tuesday, January 27, that is actually your best chance for a clear-ish sunset. The clouds often break just as the sun hits the horizon, turning the Firth of Forth into a sheet of hammered gold.
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Actionable Steps for Your Visit
Don't let the forecast scare you off, but do be smart about it.
- Check the wind, not just the rain. A 40-degree day with 5 mph wind is lovely; a 40-degree day with 22 mph wind (like we expect this Friday) is a different beast entirely.
- Book indoor attractions for the mornings. The "light rain" predicted for the next few days usually hits hardest in the afternoon. Do the Castle or the National Gallery early, then hunker down in a café.
- Watch the pavement. With lows hitting 31°F tonight, tomorrow morning will be slippery. Stick to the treated main roads if you’re heading out for an early coffee.
- Download the SEPA app. If you're planning on venturing outside the city center toward the Water of Leith, keep an eye on flood alerts. The recent snowmelt combined with this week's rain has prompted several "vigilance" warnings across Scotland.
Edinburgh is a city that was built for bad weather. It looks better in the mist anyway. Just wrap up, keep your head down against the wind, and remember that there is always a warm fireplace and a glass of whisky waiting around the next corner.