You’ve probably seen the headlines about AI changing everything, but for most online sellers, the reality is a lot more expensive and a lot more annoying than just "robots." Honestly, if you look at the ecommerce fraud news today, the picture is kind of messy.
We aren't just talking about stolen credit cards anymore. That's old school.
Today, the biggest drain on your bank account is likely coming from people who look exactly like your best customers. Sometimes, they actually are your best customers. According to a massive report released by TransUnion just this week, businesses are now losing an average of 9.8% of their revenue to fraud in the U.S. alone.
That is nearly a double-digit tax on every single thing you sell.
The "Refunduary" Nightmare and the Rise of Policy Abuse
If you’re feeling overwhelmed by returns right now, you aren't alone. We are officially in the middle of what the industry calls "Refunduary."
A new research analysis from Riskified (released January 12, 2026) found something pretty wild: nearly 1 in 4 dollars claimed as a refund is actually abusive. Think about that. 25% of the people asking for their money back are basically trying to game your system.
They’re doing things like:
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- Wardrobing: Buying a high-end outfit, wearing it to a party, and returning it smelling like perfume.
- Empty Box Scams: Claiming the package arrived empty when they’re actually holding the product.
- "Keep-it" Fraud: Taking advantage of policies where you tell them to just keep low-value items instead of shipping them back.
Retailers are panicking. To fight back, many are tightening their windows or charging return fees. But here’s the kicker: 68% of shoppers say they won’t come back if a refund takes longer than five days. You’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. If you’re too strict, you kill your brand. If you’re too soft, the fraudsters eat your lunch.
Ecommerce Fraud News Today: The AI Deepfake Threat
It’s not just "friendly" fraud from bored shoppers. Professional criminals have leveled up.
One of the most disturbing trends in ecommerce fraud news today is the use of AI-generated voice bots. These bots are calling customer service centers 24/7. They sound exactly like a frustrated customer. They have the order number. They have the name. They have the address.
They use these deepfake voices to bully or charm support agents into issuing "manual" refunds. Because the bot doesn't get tired, it can probe a hundred different agents until it finds the one who is having a bad day and just wants to close the ticket.
Why Your "Rules" Are Breaking
Most fraud systems are built on "rules." If $X$ happens, then do $Y$.
That doesn't work in 2026.
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Scammers are now using Reinforcement Learning. Basically, they have their own AI that "tests" your checkout page. It tries a thousand slight variations in milliseconds to see what triggers your fraud filter. Once it finds a hole, it pours through it.
Juniper Research just pointed out that digital goods fraud alone is set to hit $27 billion soon because of these automated attacks. It’s no longer a guy in a basement; it’s a server farm in a different time zone.
Agentic Commerce: The New Frontier
Have you heard of "a-commerce"? It’s basically when an AI agent (like a specialized version of ChatGPT) does the shopping for you.
Mastercard just launched Mastercard Agent Pay because this is becoming a huge headache. When a "bot" buys something for a human, it looks like a fraud bot to most security systems. It buys at 3:00 AM. It uses weird IP addresses.
If your store isn't ready to tell the difference between a "good bot" (a customer's AI assistant) and a "bad bot" (a scammer), you’re going to block legitimate sales. That’s called a "false positive," and it’s costing merchants billions in lost trust.
Real Numbers You Can't Ignore
- $343 Billion: The total projected merchant loss from online payment fraud between now and 2027.
- $207: What it actually costs you for every $100 of fraud, once you factor in shipping, lost inventory, and chargeback fees.
- 42%: The amount of global ecommerce fraud that happens in North America.
How to Protect Your Profit Without Killing the Vibe
So, what do you actually do? You can't just shut down.
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First, stop relying on static passwords. They’re basically useless now. Biometric identification and "liveness detection" are becoming the standard. You need to know that the person on the other end is a human, not a deepfake.
Second, look into Dynamic Returns. Companies like Riskified are starting to offer AI that makes return decisions in real-time. If a "VIP" customer who has spent $5,000 with you over three years wants a refund, give it to them instantly. If a brand-new account with a weird email address wants a refund on a $1,000 item, trigger a manual review.
Stop Thinking Like a Guard, Start Thinking Like a Scientist
The merchants winning right now are shifting their budget. PYMNTS reported today that over half of merchants are moving money away from "people" and toward "orchestration tech."
You need a system that looks at behavioral signals. How does the user move their mouse? How fast do they type? Scammers use scripts; humans are messy. If the "customer" types their credit card number in 0.1 seconds, they didn't type it—they pasted it. That’s a red flag.
Actionable Steps for This Week
- Audit your return policy: Is it so strict that it’s scaring away the 75% of people who are honest? Consider a "trust-based" tier for long-term customers.
- Implement "Stop-Call-Confirm": For any high-value B2B transactions or internal shipment changes, never rely on email or a single voice call. Use a secondary, trusted channel.
- Check your "False Positive" rate: Are you blocking too many good orders? Sometimes the "fraud" you saved is less than the profit you lost from insulting a real customer.
- Demand data transparency: If you use third-party AI assistants or platforms, make sure they are sharing the user's IP and device info with you. Without that, you’re flying blind.
Fraud isn't going away, but it is changing shape. The "news" isn't that people are stealing; it's that they are using the same AI tools you use for marketing to pick your pocket. Stay sharp.