Everyone loves to talk about "any given Sunday," but let’s be real. If you’re the San Francisco 49ers looking at a late-season calendar filled with teams currently drafting in the top five, you aren't exactly shaking in your cleats. We are deep into the 2025-2026 season now, and the gap between the haves and the have-nots has become a canyon. Honestly, the easiest remaining NFL schedule isn't just a fun stat for gamblers anymore; it’s basically the only reason some of these fringe teams are still breathing.
Timing is everything in this league. You could have a roster stacked with Pro Bowlers, but if you're hitting a gauntlet of divisional rivals and AFC North bruisers in January, your Super Bowl dreams are probably toast. On the flip side, a mediocre team with a "cupcake" finish can stumble into a Wild Card spot just by showing up.
Who is actually coasting right now?
If you look at the raw data from guys like Warren Sharp or the efficiency metrics over at Team Rankings, the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco 49ers have basically been playing a different sport lately. The 49ers entered this season with what many called the "easiest road in the NFL," and as we hit the final stretch, that hasn't changed much. When your divisional opponents like the Arizona Cardinals are sitting at 3-14 or 5-12, those "tough" away games start looking like a vacation.
But the real shocker? The New England Patriots.
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Nobody expected them to be in the hunt, yet here we are. They have benefited from what some analysts are calling a "historically soft" schedule. While the New York Giants were out there getting pulverized by the toughest schedule in the league (averaging opponents with over 9 projected wins), the Patriots were quietly feasting on the bottom of the barrel.
- San Francisco 49ers: Facing an average opponent win total of roughly $7.69$ earlier this year.
- New Orleans Saints: Consistently ranked in the top three for easiest remaining games due to a struggling NFC South.
- Atlanta Falcons: Benefiting from the same "bad division" tax that helps the Saints.
The NFC North and East Nightmare
It's kinda funny seeing the contrast. If you're a fan of the Chicago Bears or Detroit Lions, you're probably screaming at your TV about the injustice of it all. These teams have had to navigate a minefield. The Bears, specifically, have been cited by Sharp Football Analysis as having the hardest remaining strength of schedule for the 2025 season.
Imagine having to face the Lions, Packers, and Vikings twice each, plus non-conference games against the AFC North. It's brutal. Meanwhile, teams in the NFC West or South are basically getting a pass.
Does it matter? Absolutely. Look at the Philadelphia Eagles. They had 11 games against 2024 playoff teams. You can't tell me that doesn't wear a locker room down. By the time Week 18 rolls around, the teams with the easiest remaining NFL schedule aren't just winning more—they're healthier. They haven't spent four months getting hit by 300-pound defensive tackles from elite units every single week.
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How we actually calculate "Easy"
We should probably talk about how these rankings are made, because it’s not just about wins and losses. That’s the old-school way. Nowadays, experts use Win Total Projections from sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel.
They look at the "juice" on the lines. If a team is projected for 8.5 wins but the "Under" is heavily favored, that team is viewed as a "weak" opponent regardless of their current record. That’s why the Buffalo Bills sometimes show up with a "favorable" remaining schedule even if they're playing teams with decent records—the markets think those opponents are frauds.
"The win percentage method ignores year-over-year changes. A team that lost because their QB was hurt is underrated. A team that won a bunch of 'coin flip' games is overrated." — NFL efficiency experts at nfelo.
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The Teams to Watch for a Late Surge
Keep an eye on the Cincinnati Bengals. They’ve hovered around the top 10 for easiest remaining paths. If Joe Burrow is healthy in January and he's playing teams that have already checked out for the season, that’s a recipe for a deep playoff run.
Then you have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’re in that weird NFC South bubble where nobody is truly dominant. Their remaining schedule has consistently featured teams in the bottom 8 of Super Bowl odds. It's not glamorous, but a win is a win, especially when it leads to a home playoff game.
- Check the SOS (Strength of Schedule) Adjusted for Injuries: A team playing the Chiefs without Mahomes is a different animal.
- Look at "Rest Disparity": Is your team playing an "easy" opponent who just had a Bye week? That makes them a lot harder.
- Home vs. Away: Even the worst team in the league is a pain to play on their home turf in December weather.
What this means for your team
If your team is sitting on the bubble, go check their remaining opponents' combined point differential. Not their record. The differential. If they’re playing teams that are getting blown out consistently, they’ve got a massive advantage that the standings might not show yet.
The reality is that the NFL is a league of attrition. The easiest remaining NFL schedule isn't just a statistical quirk—it's a lifeline. As we head into the final weeks of the 2026 season, watch how the 49ers and Saints use their "light" schedules to rest starters or refine their playbooks. They have a luxury the Giants or Bears never had.
Stop looking at the records. Look at the efficiency. If a team's remaining opponents have a negative EPA (Expected Points Added) per play, start booking those playoff tickets now.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Track the "Rest Advantage" for the final three weeks of the season to see which "easy" opponents are actually coming off short weeks.
- Monitor the Vegas Win Totals for upcoming opponents rather than their current standings to identify "trap" games.
- Compare the Point Differential of your team's remaining schedule to see if they are facing "inflated" winners or "unlucky" losers.