Numbers don't lie, but they sure can be loud.
By the time the sun came up on November 5, 2024, more than 85 million Americans had already cast their ballots. Think about that for a second. That is more than half of the total turnout in 2020. People didn't just show up; they showed up weeks early, lining up at libraries and mailing in envelopes from their kitchen tables.
Honestly, the early voting results so far 2024 tell a story of a massive shift in how we handle elections. It's not just a Tuesday thing anymore. It's a month-long marathon.
While the final tally saw Donald Trump secure 312 electoral votes and the popular vote—a first for a Republican since 2004—the early data was the first real "tell" of how the night would go. We saw records shatter in Georgia and North Carolina, even as communities were still picking up the pieces from Hurricane Helene. It was intense.
The Massive Surge in Early Participation
The scale was staggering. We are talking about nearly 60% of the entire electorate choosing to skip the Election Day lines.
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Specifically, 30.7% of voters went to early in-person sites, while 29% used mail-in ballots. If you compare this to 2018, where only about 40% voted early, you can see the trend line is basically a rocket ship. We've moved past the "pandemic exception" of 2020. This is the new normal.
In the South, early voting was basically the primary way to vote. Over 50% of Southern voters hit the polls before Tuesday. The Northeast, however, remains the "old school" region. Almost 59% of people in states like New York and New Jersey still prefer the tradition of voting on the actual Election Day.
Who Actually Voted Early?
The demographics were kind of surprising. Here is a quick look at who was doing the early heavy lifting:
- Seniors (65+): These were the mail-in champions. About 36.8% of them sent their ballots through the post.
- The 45-64 Crowd: This group loved early in-person voting more than anyone else, with 32.8% showing up at physical sites before the 5th.
- Black Voters: This demographic had the highest rate of early in-person voting overall.
- Asian Voters: They leaned heavily into mail-in options, with nearly 47% choosing that route.
Early Voting Results So Far 2024 in the Battlegrounds
The "Blue Wall" and the Sun Belt were where the early voting results so far 2024 really mattered.
In Georgia, the numbers were wild. Over 4 million people voted early. To put that in perspective, that’s a massive chunk of the state's active registered voters. Gabriel Sterling from the Secretary of State’s office was reporting record-breaking daily totals throughout October.
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North Carolina was another shocker. Despite the devastation in the western part of the state, the first day of early voting saw over 353,000 ballots. That beat the 2020 record. People were determined.
In Nevada, the early returns showed a significant shift. For the first time in years, Republicans actually started narrowing the traditional Democratic "firewall" in Clark County. By the time Election Day arrived, the GOP had a registered voter lead in the early returns that hadn't been seen in decades. It basically signaled that the state was moving toward Trump long before the final precincts reported.
The Partisan Gap Shrinking
For years, there was this huge divide: Democrats voted by mail, and Republicans waited until Tuesday.
In 2024, that gap started to melt. Republican leadership actively pushed "Bank the Vote" initiatives. They basically told their base, "Hey, if you vote early, we can spend our money on the people who haven't decided yet."
It worked.
In Florida, Republicans ended up with a 12-point advantage in party registration among early voters. That’s a massive swing from 2020. While Democrats still held a lead in mail-in ballots in many states, the GOP’s surge in early in-person voting essentially neutralized that advantage in several key areas.
What Most People Get Wrong About Early Data
A lot of folks look at early voting registration and think they’ve found a crystal ball. They see "More Republicans voted today" and assume the state is over.
That's a mistake.
State data tells us who is voting (by party registration), not how they are voting. In states like Pennsylvania, an Independent isn't a Republican or a Democrat, and they make up a huge slice of the pie. Also, "crossover" voting is a real thing.
Expert David Becker from the Center for Election Innovation and Research has been loud about this: you can't predict the winner just by looking at the party of the people in line. You have to wait for the actual count.
In 2024, the early vote didn't just represent "new" voters; it was often "cannibalized" votes. This means people who were going to vote anyway just decided to do it sooner. It doesn't always mean higher total turnout; it often just means a different schedule.
Lessons for the Future
If you're looking for the "so what" of the 2024 early voting cycle, it's that the "Election Season" is officially here to stay.
Campaigns now have to run expensive operations for 45 days instead of just 48 hours. If you're an organizer, you aren't just looking for a "surge" on Tuesday. You're looking for a steady drip of ballots starting in September.
- Check your registration early. The 2024 cycle showed that many people who thought they were ready weren't.
- Know your state's "cure" rules. In a close race, mail-in ballots with mistakes (like a forgotten signature) can be fixed in some states. Knowing this can literally change an election outcome.
- Watch the "Gold Standard" sources. If you want to track this in the future, the University of Florida’s Election Lab is basically the Bible for early data.
The 2024 election proved that when you give Americans more ways to vote, they take them. Whether it's through the mail or a Saturday trip to the local library, the era of the single-day election is over.
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The strategy for the next cycle is already being written based on these 2024 numbers. The GOP learned that banking votes early prevents "Election Day surprises" like bad weather or long lines discouraging their voters. Democrats learned that their mail-in monopoly is being challenged.
Next time around, expect the push for your early vote to start even sooner and hit even harder.