If you were glued to your screen during the lead-up to the 2024 election, you likely saw the constant tickers. The early voting numbers NBC and other major networks blast across the screen can feel like a crystal ball. But here’s the thing: they aren’t.
Honestly, the way we digest these numbers is kinda broken. We see a spike in one county and think, "Oh, it's over for the other guy." Then, a batch of mail-in ballots drops, and the narrative flips entirely. By the time Election Day actually rolled around in 2024, nearly 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots. That is a massive chunk of the electorate—roughly 53% of the total vote—decided before the first poll even opened on Tuesday morning.
Why the NBC Early Vote Tracker Became a Cultural Phenomenon
For weeks, the NBC News Decision Desk was the go-to source for people trying to read the tea leaves. They didn't just show totals; they broke it down by party registration, age, and "new voter" status.
It was a data nerd’s dream. But for the average person, it was a source of massive anxiety. Why? Because early voting data is a "lagging indicator." It tells you who showed up, but it doesn't tell you how they voted. In Pennsylvania, for instance, the numbers showed Democratic women over 65 were crushing the early turnout. Meanwhile, in Arizona, the story was all about "low-propensity" Republican men hitting the early voting sites in person.
The Great 2024 Shift: Republicans Finally Embraced Early Voting
For years, there was a massive "partisan gap" in how people voted. Democrats liked mail. Republicans liked Tuesday.
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Basically, 2020 was a "unicorn" year. Because of the pandemic, 69% of people voted early or by mail. After that, many assumed things would go back to "normal." But 2024 proved that "normal" has shifted forever. The biggest surprise in the early voting numbers NBC reported wasn't just the volume, but the demographic shift.
Republicans, encouraged by the RNC’s "Bank Your Vote" initiative, showed up in person during the early window like never before. In Nevada, the GOP actually led in early voting for the first time in a decade. It fundamentally changed how campaigns had to spend their money. Instead of a 24-hour "Get Out the Vote" (GOTV) push, it became a 30-day marathon.
Key Stats from the Final NBC Tallies:
- Total Early Votes: Over 82.9 million.
- In-Person Early: ~34.5 million.
- Mail-In Ballots: ~48.4 million.
- The Age Gap: Voters over 65 accounted for nearly 40% of the early vote in critical states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
The "New Voter" Factor in Battleground States
This is where things got really interesting. NBC's analysis highlighted "new voters"—people who didn't participate in 2020.
In Pennsylvania, over 100,000 "new" voters cast ballots early. To put that in perspective, Joe Biden won the state by about 80,000 in 2020. If these new voters lean heavily one way, they don't just influence the margin; they are the margin.
But there’s a catch.
A huge portion of these early birds were registered as "Unaffiliated" or "Independent." In North Carolina and Nevada, independents were actually the largest group of new early voters. You’ve got experts on both sides claiming these people for their camp, but the truth is, nobody knows until the envelopes are opened.
Breaking Down the Methods: Mail vs. In-Person
We see a lot of talk about "early voting" as one big bucket, but it’s actually two very different behaviors.
- Mail-In Voting: Still heavily dominated by older voters and, historically, Democrats. In 2024, however, the "returned ballot" rate for Republicans climbed significantly.
- Early In-Person: This is where the South shines. In states like Georgia and South Carolina, "Early In-Person" is basically the new Election Day. South Carolina saw nearly 1.5 million people vote early in person, a staggering record for the state.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Early Lead"
You’ve probably heard someone say, "The Democrats are up by 200,000 in the early vote, so they’ve won."
Stop. Just... stop.
Early voting numbers are often just "cannibalizing" the Election Day vote. If a Republican who always votes on Tuesday decides to vote on a Saturday instead, the total number of Republican votes hasn't increased—it just moved. The real thing to watch isn't the party split; it's the turnout of low-propensity voters.
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If a guy who hasn't voted since 2012 shows up on a Wednesday in October, that is a "net new" vote. That's what actually shifts the needle. NBC's tracker was one of the few that tried to highlight these "low-propensity" spikes, which gave a much clearer picture of the energy on the ground than just looking at party registration.
Actionable Insights: How to Read the Next Cycle's Numbers
If you want to be the smartest person in the room (or the group chat) during the next election cycle, don't just look at the raw early voting numbers NBC provides. Look at these three things instead:
- The "New Voter" Percentage: Is the early vote just the "usual suspects," or are we seeing a surge of people who normally sit out?
- The Gender Gap: In 2024, the "gender gap" in early voting was massive, particularly in the Rust Belt. If women are out-voting men by 10 points in the early window, the "late" Tuesday vote has to be an absolute landslide for men to even the score.
- Rural vs. Urban Returns: Check if the mail-in ballots are coming from big cities (usually favoring Dems) or if rural drop-boxes are filling up (usually favoring the GOP).
The 2024 election proved that early voting is no longer an "alternative"—it is the standard. With 47 states now offering some form of early voting, the idea of a "results night" is becoming a "results week."
What you should do next:
If you're looking for the most granular breakdown of how these numbers translated into the final results, check out the University of Florida’s Election Lab. They provide the raw data that feeds into the NBC trackers. Also, make sure your own voter registration is updated now—don't wait for the next "record-breaking" cycle to find out your address is wrong.