Walk into a polling place these days and it feels different. Not just the shorter lines or the "I Voted" stickers appearing weeks before November, but the whole vibe of the American election cycle has shifted. If you’re looking at early voting compared to 2020, you’re basically looking at the difference between a panicked emergency response and a new, permanent way of life.
Honestly, we all thought 2020 was a one-off. A "unicorn" election, as some experts call it. We were stuck at home, wiping down groceries with Lysol, and the idea of standing in a crowded gym to pull a lever felt like a dare. But now that we're into 2026, the data shows that while the pandemic ended, our new voting habits didn't.
People actually like voting on a Tuesday three weeks before the deadline. Who knew?
The 69% Peak and the "New Normal"
In 2020, about 69% of voters cast their ballots before Election Day. It was wild. Mail-in ballots accounted for 43% of all votes, a massive jump from 21% in 2016. Fast forward to the 2024 cycle, and while that 69% figure dipped slightly, the underlying trend is still pointing up.
According to the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 saw roughly 57% of voters casting ballots early. That’s lower than the pandemic peak but significantly higher than the 40% we saw in 2016. Basically, we’ve landed on a new plateau.
What’s really interesting is the "mode" of early voting. In 2020, everyone was obsessed with the mail. In 2024 and 2026, we’ve seen a shift toward early in-person voting. People want the security of seeing their ballot go into the machine, but they don't want the Tuesday morning headache.
Why the "Red Mirage" looks different now
You remember the "Red Mirage" from 2020? That thing where it looked like one candidate was winning big on election night, only for the mail-in ballots to flip the script three days later? That was mostly because of a massive partisan gap in how people voted.
In 2020, Democrats were about 30 points more likely to vote by mail than Republicans. By 2024, that gap narrowed significantly.
Republicans started "banking" votes early. High-profile campaigns shifted from telling people to wait until Tuesday to begging them to vote as soon as the doors opened. In battlegrounds like Georgia and North Carolina, we saw record-breaking first-day turnouts in 2024 that were fueled by voters across the political spectrum.
The Law of the Land: How Rules Changed Since 2020
You can't talk about early voting compared to 2020 without talking about the lawyers. Since that messy 2020 cycle, almost every state has tweaked its rules.
Some states, like Michigan and Nevada, went all-in on making it easier. They codified things like permanent mail-in lists and expanded weekend hours. Others, like Georgia, added new ID requirements for mail ballots or moved the deadline to request them.
Here is a quick look at the landscape:
- Expanded Access: 47 states now offer some form of early in-person voting. That’s up from just 24 states in 2000.
- The Holdouts: Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire are the only ones left that don't offer broad early in-person options.
- The Mail Factor: 36 states allow "no-excuse" absentee voting, meaning you don't need a doctor's note or a travel itinerary just to get a ballot sent to your house.
One thing people get wrong is thinking these laws only "restrict" or "expand." In reality, they've mostly just standardized the chaos of 2020. We’ve traded emergency executive orders for actual statutes.
Changing Demographics of the Early Voter
The "typical" early voter used to be an older, retired person with plenty of time on their hands. That’s changed.
While voters over 65 still love the mail (about 36.8% of them used it in 2024), the 45-to-64 demographic has become the powerhouse of early in-person voting. They’re busy. They have jobs. They’re hitting the polls on a Saturday morning between runs to the hardware store.
Diversity in the Early Ballot Box
Pew Research Center data from the most recent cycles shows some surprising shifts. For a long time, early voting was seen as a tool used more by White and Black voters. But in 2024, Asian voters cast the highest rate of mail-in ballots (nearly 46.5%).
Meanwhile, Black voters have maintained the highest rate of early in-person voting. There's a cultural element there—"Souls to the Polls" events and community-organized voting drives remain a massive factor in the South.
Misconceptions That Just Won't Die
There’s this persistent myth that early voting always helps one specific party. Honestly, the data just doesn't back that up anymore.
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When you look at early voting compared to 2020, you see that high early turnout doesn't automatically mean a landslide for anyone. It usually just means the "likely voters" are finishing their homework early. It allows campaigns to stop calling you every five minutes because they can see in the public record that you've already voted.
Another big one: "Early voting is less secure."
Actually, election officials often prefer it. Spreading 150 million votes over three weeks is much easier to manage than trying to handle them all in 12 hours. It gives them time to fix paper jams, manage poll worker shortages, and handle any tech glitches without the whole system crashing.
Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle
If you're planning your own strategy for the next time you have to head to the booth, keep these realities in mind. The "Election Day" experience is becoming a niche choice, not the standard.
1. Check your "Cure" laws
Many states now have "ballot curing" processes. If you vote by mail and forget to sign the envelope (it happens), states like Arizona or Colorado will actually call or email you to fix it. If you wait until Election Day to vote in person and there’s an issue, you might be out of luck.
2. The Saturday Sweet Spot
Data shows that the first Saturday of early voting is often the busiest. If you want the "early" experience without the line, try a Tuesday or Wednesday morning during the second week of the window.
3. Verify your ID (Again)
Because so many laws changed between 2020 and 2026, don't assume your old ID works for mail-in applications. Check your Secretary of State's website at least 45 days before the election.
The bottom line is that early voting compared to 2020 isn't about a temporary pandemic fix anymore. It's about a fundamental shift in how we participate in democracy. We've moved from an "Election Day" to an "Election Month," and for most of us, there's no going back.
To stay ahead of the curve, your best move is to verify your registration status now through official portals like Vote.org or your local registrar. If you plan to use a mail-in ballot, request it at least 30 days out to account for any postal delays. Finally, keep a close watch on your state's specific "received-by" versus "postmarked-by" deadlines, as these have been a major point of litigation and change since 2020.