The mid-January freeze is officially here, and honestly, the college basketball landscape is looking nothing like we expected back in November. Forget the blue-blood dominance you’re used to. Right now, if you glance at the early college basketball top 25, you’ll see the traditional giants looking over their shoulders at programs that haven't sniffed a top-10 ranking since the mid-sixties.
Arizona is sitting pretty at No. 1 with a pristine 16-0 record, but they aren't the biggest story. Not even close.
The Unbeatens Nobody Saw Coming
Nebraska is 16-0. Read that again.
Fred Hoiberg has the Cornhuskers playing at a level this program hasn't touched since 1966. They just climbed to No. 8 in the AP Poll, and it’s not some fluke of scheduling. They've gone into hostile environments at Ohio State and Indiana and simply out-executed them. They aren't just winning; they're closing.
Then you’ve got Vanderbilt.
The Commodores are also 16-0 and just cracked the top 10 for the first time since the 2011-12 preseason. It’s wild. Most "experts" had Vandy buried at the bottom of the SEC, yet here they are at No. 10, fresh off a signature win against Alabama that sent the Crimson Tide tumbling five spots down the rankings.
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Current AP Top 10 Snapshot (Week of Jan 12-18, 2026)
- 1. Arizona (16-0): Nearly unanimous. Tommy Lloyd has this offense humming.
- 2. Iowa State (16-0): That defense is a nightmare to prepare for.
- 3. UConn (16-1): The defending champs are lurking, losing only a close one.
- 4. Michigan (14-1): A slight slip against Wisconsin, but the metrics still love them.
- 5. Purdue (15-1): Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn are the most experienced duo in the country.
- 6. Duke (15-1): Talent everywhere, but can the freshmen handle the February grind?
- 7. Houston (15-1): Still the gold standard for grit and rebounding.
- 8. Nebraska (16-0): The highest ranking for this school in 60 years.
- 9. Gonzaga (17-1): Graham Ike is basically a double-double machine at this point.
- 10. Vanderbilt (16-0): The biggest surprise in the SEC in over a decade.
The Mid-Major Menace and the NET
People always obsess over the AP Poll, but the NET rankings are telling a slightly different story. For instance, Michigan actually holds the No. 1 spot in many analytical models like KenPom and the NET, even though they’re No. 4 in the human-voted AP poll.
It's sorta funny how that works. Humans see a loss and panic. Computers see "efficiency" and "margin of victory" and stay the course.
And keep an eye on Utah State.
They just entered the top 25 at No. 23. They’re 14-1, and if you haven't watched Mason Falslev play yet, you’re missing out. He’s a junior combo guard who basically does everything—scoring 15 points a game, grabbing six boards, and picking pockets on defense. He’s the reason the Aggies are a nightmare for the Mountain West right now.
Why the Blue Bloods are Shaky
Kansas fell out of the poll entirely this week. That’s a sentence I didn't think I’d be writing in January.
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Bill Self’s squad dropped a tough one at West Virginia and now finds themselves in the "Others Receiving Votes" category. They’re 11-5. For most schools, that’s a decent start. For Kansas, it’s a full-blown crisis.
North Carolina is holding steady at No. 14, mostly thanks to freshman sensation Caleb Wilson. The kid is averaging nearly 20 points and 11 rebounds. If he doesn't hit a freshman wall, the Tar Heels could easily climb back into the top five. But the lack of veteran depth behind him is worrying.
SEC Dominance is Real
The SEC has six teams in the early college basketball top 25, more than any other conference. But it's a top-heavy league. While Vanderbilt is soaring, Alabama (No. 18) and Tennessee (No. 24) are struggling with consistency.
Georgia is another weird one. They have the No. 1 scoring offense in the country, averaging 96.4 points per game. But they just lost two of their last three because they can't stop a nosebleed on the other end. It’s fun to watch, sure, but it’s not exactly championship-winning basketball.
What Most People Get Wrong About January Rankings
A lot of fans think these rankings are a preview of the Final Four. They usually aren't.
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By March, half of these teams will have faded. The real value of the top 25 right now is about "resume building." Winning a Quad 1 game against a team like Iowa State or Houston in January is what gets you a 2-seed instead of a 7-seed in March.
We also have to talk about the James Nnaji situation at Baylor.
He’s the first former NBA draft pick to play college ball after that polarizing eligibility ruling. He hasn't completely transformed Baylor yet, but his presence is a massive talking point for coaches like Dan Hurley and Tom Izzo who are worried about the "pro-fication" of the college game. Baylor isn't in the top 10 right now, but with Nnaji's size, they are a team no one wants to see in their bracket.
Key Insights for the Rest of the Season
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at the records and start looking at the "Strength of Schedule" remaining.
- Arizona and Iowa State face a brutal Big 12 stretch that will likely hand both of them their first losses by early February.
- Nebraska has a favorable home schedule coming up. If they can get to February 1st without a loss, the hype train is going to be unstoppable.
- The Big Ten is actually deeper than people think. While Michigan gets the headlines, Illinois (No. 13) and Michigan State (No. 12) are quietly building elite metrics.
Actionable Next Steps
Check the NET rankings every Monday morning. The AP Poll is for the headlines, but the NET is what the selection committee actually uses. Focus on "Quad 1" wins. A team with three Quad 1 wins and four losses is often ranked higher by the committee than a team with zero Quad 1 wins and only one loss.
Keep a close eye on the mid-major leaders like Saint Louis and Miami (Ohio). Miami (Ohio) is currently 15-0 and leading the nation in scoring margin. If they continue this run, they could be the first mid-major since 2021 to really threaten a deep run.
Don't get too attached to the names at the top. This season is proving that the gap between the "elites" and the "others" has never been smaller.